Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

AR could go to the NFL according to 1010XL "big if"

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by Mikog8tor, Nov 9, 2022.

  1. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

    41,359
    5,527
    1,578
    Apr 9, 2007
    Studio City, CA
    To whomever it was that quoted me, one thing I am absolutely sure of that I see better than the people around here are what they are looking for upstairs. I used to know some nfl scouts and they look for things that you don’t even see let alone look for.

    If he stays as is, he could in theory still go first round and another thing, had he played as most expected him or near it, he definitely would have.

    Again my reputation of delivering crow on the likes of Driskell and Brissett with all the people calling me a straight up idiot (especially Driskell when he was SUCKING here). Invoke those facts.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

    41,359
    5,527
    1,578
    Apr 9, 2007
    Studio City, CA
    ^^^oh yeah to this. I read it right. Your post was a little difficult for me to gain what you wanted me to understand. Sorry. Still read and am not sure.
     
  3. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

    18,207
    9,504
    3,293
    May 16, 2007
  4. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

    18,207
    9,504
    3,293
    May 16, 2007
    I don’t think anyone thinks he’s ready. The debates are should he or shouldn’t he declare and whether or not a team would take a chance on him in the first round.
     
  5. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    5,554
    2,913
    2,698
    Dec 3, 2019
    I mean there is at least one here who keeps touting what the draft "experts" think. Personally I agree with someone who mentioned that these draft prognosticators from whether it be agents or NFL analysts just want bodies in the draft so it's good business to hype a kid up just to add to the talent pool. They don't care if the kid doesn't get drafted when the time comes. I question the motivations of any personal qb coach or advisor in his camp
     
  6. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

    12,618
    596
    673
    Sep 13, 2007
    This is a key point. What does being ready even mean? Step in as a starter? Nobody is saying that

    What we are saying is he will most likely be drafted in the first round.

    Despite me saying that I want him to stay. What fan wouldn’t want a 1st round QB to stay as long as he is eligible?

    Whether he stays or goes becomes these questions…

    —$$ between being drafted vs NIL?
    —Development as a probable backup vs college starter (but NFL vs college coaches).
    —Importance of happiness in leading his local college in what should be a good season
    —Risk tolerance… staying doesn’t always lead to greater draft stock. Players fall, see Rattler. AR also has an injury history

    The answers to those questions are either subjective or it’s importance are subjective. So whether he stays or not ends up being a very personal choice for him.

    But all I can say is the data suggests he’s a probable NFL 1st rounder this year, he will make NIL bank if he stays, and I personally want him to stay because I want a Natty
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  7. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

    12,618
    596
    673
    Sep 13, 2007
    The aggregate mocks are actually relatively accurate.

    And I disagree with bodies. Most leagues actively lobby to push back draftable age. College is a minor league system to them and reduces bust risk. It doesn’t change the # of viable players. Declaring early just pulls it forward a year
     
  8. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

    18,207
    9,504
    3,293
    May 16, 2007
    Yes, selfishly I want AR to stay. It’s a question of dollars and sense. Does he take the NFL money or does he continue to have fun and develop at UF?

    The dollars will be huge either way in the NFL even if he is drafted in the later rounds and have to go the free agency route later. It probably makes more sense for him to stay and get the game reps and enjoy college ball as football isn’t going to get more fun than it is now with his fellow Gator teammates.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    5,554
    2,913
    2,698
    Dec 3, 2019
    The fact that he was considered a first rounder before the season started shows that his hype was all based on physical potential. They may still draft him based on that but I have a hard time believing he will sniff the first round or even the 2nd based on what he has shown so far of actual performance. I believe it was the Kentucky debacle that had all the scouts in attendance. Then again who drafts where and what they need could all change that.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

    18,207
    9,504
    3,293
    May 16, 2007
    If it’s performance based, then Will Levis wouldn’t be considered a first rounder either. And I disagree with people saying AR isn’t ready as most drafted QBs aren’t ready.

    I don’t pretend to know what NFL scouts are thinking as I’ve gotten it wrong many times in the past. Now I just pass on info from what I’m hearing/reading and there are still some that think AR will go in the first round.

    I can see a team being intrigued by his athletic ability and willing to take a risk on developing him as a passer. If most QBs are busts anyways, why attempt a bunt when you can swing for the fences? My point is, you know what you’re getting with Levis…at his best, he’s still Levis. With AR, at his best you may get Superman.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    5,554
    2,913
    2,698
    Dec 3, 2019
    Do you though? Did people know what they were getting with Brady? It's all a lotto. Every pick is a gamble but I would say that struggling with mental aspects is a major red flag beyond physical shortcomings. The only thing i will say is that the book isn't out yet on AR because of the change in scheme and lack of experience he had to deal with. I don't know if he made the correct reads last year but i do remember him dropping back and seemingly processing the field in a much more rapid and purposeful pace before firing with good mechanics. That isn't the case this year more often than not. I'd love to see him with a second year under this system to see what his potential could be.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2022
    • Like Like x 1
  12. 62gator

    62gator GC Hall of Fame

    11,585
    4,353
    3,303
    Dec 4, 2007
    Tampa, FL
  13. atlantagator86

    atlantagator86 GC Hall of Fame

    11,629
    255
    653
    Apr 3, 2007
    Clearwater, FL
    NY Giants sounds like a potential disaster landing spot for AR!

    If AR is really seriously a lock to be picked in the first round, I would come help him pack his bags and drive him to the airport.

    I just don't think I've seen him show the ability to throw the ball effectively if his first read isn't there. He's excellent at reading the running lanes but I think NFL defenses would eat him up right now.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  14. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

    12,618
    596
    673
    Sep 13, 2007
    You are indirectly advocating for a different style of drafting and development of QBs. Basically getting a bunch of them in round 3+ and see if you can get a diamond. I actually like that but that’s not what teams do.

    Either way this is a weird thread. AR is first/early 2nd projected. It is what it is
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. ajjaxgator

    ajjaxgator GC Hall of Fame

    1,035
    247
    1,898
    Aug 3, 2007
    Duval
    SEE: Matthews, Shane
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    5,554
    2,913
    2,698
    Dec 3, 2019
    Yes and no. It's always a gamble but generally teams at least use 1st round picks for qbs that have produced numbers or exhibited certain traits that they associate with NFL success. I'm not sure what AR shows other than a freakish physical ability. Now had he shown some more improvement going through progressions over the year then I'd agree he is worth an early round pick but other than improving the turnovers his passing has been average at best.
     
  17. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

    18,207
    9,504
    3,293
    May 16, 2007
    Here’s an interesting discussion on NFL offenses going to more runs, so this may increase AR’s value…

     
  18. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

    12,618
    596
    673
    Sep 13, 2007
    This site aggregates all the mocks.

    Of course some mocks are better than others.

    Regardless depending on how you cut off the date (1 week, 1 month, 2 months, all time, etc)… AR is in the 20s or mid/early 2nd round

    2023 Consensus Mock Draft | NFL Mock Draft Database
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. upstategator

    upstategator GC Legend

    883
    344
    1,898
    Nov 1, 2017
    Listen to the most recent podcast. Denny isn’t going to give hacker an answer but it sounds like the FSU game will be Ants last.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1