Russian oil exports have dropped from around 8 million bpd to under 7.5m bpd. IEA estimates another 1.5M - 2M bpd decrease with the new sanctions (EU imports of 1.1M bpd will be stopped). Same with the nat gas. They are in a death spiral that it will take decades for their economy to recover from since they are so dependent on energy exports to fuel their economy. China, Turkey, and India have been stocking up on discounted Russian crude but their storage capacities are maxing out and their consumption will not sustain the increased level of imports. The new sanctions will hit the insurance on the tankers which is the critical sanction that brought Iran to the bargaining table. Russian Oil Exports Hold Up Despite Impending EU Ban - WSJ Over 1 million barrels of Russian oil exports a day are set to be obstructed by Western sanctions that are expected to come into force within weeks, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, and Moscow will struggle to redirect shipments elsewhere threatening to further tighten global energy markets. .................. Russia’s total oil exports rose by 165,000 barrels a day in October to 7.7 million barrels a day. Russian exports to the EU were 1.5 million barrels a day, of which 1.1 million barrels a day will be halted when the bloc’s ban comes into effect early next month, the IEA said. It was unclear how much of those supplies Russia would be able to redirect to customers elsewhere in the world, the IEA said. India, China and Turkey have snapped up discounted Russian crude shipments but buying from those nations has stabilized in recent months while the volume would be too large for the remaining nations to absorb, the agency said. .................. On Dec. 5, EU states will ban imports of Russian crude and prohibit their companies from financing or insuring Russian oil shipments. On the same day, a price cap plan led by the Group of Seven comes into force. The plan will allow Western companies to facilitate Russian oil trading only if the oil is sold below a certain level. The price cap mechanism is an attempt to keep Russia’s global oil supplies flowing while undermining Moscow’s revenue. While no level has yet been set, U.S. officials have suggested a cap in the $60 a barrel range would give Russia an incentive to keep producing. Russia has said it won’t trade with any nations participating in the price cap.
That can’t be true … Edit: But apparently it is. Extremely dumb move by Russia not to make sure its munitions fall well short of NATO countries. They will have earned whatever this move buys them. At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland
It's showing up in news feeds. Was probably a matter of time before Russian weapons landed on the NATO side of the line. IF this escalates, nice knowing everyone.
First, while it’s a touching sentiment, it’s never nice knowing everyone. I’m sure you can think of a few people off the top of your head that would improve the world by leaving it. Just consider it a silver lining if you must. Second, and seriously, there is an opportunity here that the President should not waste. A proportional response on behalf of NATO is not only warranted but necessary as a grave warning to Russia about not escalating further and indeed tapering off this thing. First seek Polish approval to reciprocate on their behalf, then Ukrainian approval to target a Russian site on Ukrainian territory, then advise Russia that a proportional response is coming at a time and place of our choosing (regardless of whatever they threaten to do next). When they see we can hit them wherever and whenever we want, at negligible risk to our own forces, that will give them serious pause about next moves.
Wow. I checked a key metric on overall expected global stability and health - the US stock market. Had a sharp drop at I believe the time the bombing was announced. but rebounding which is encouraging.
Ukraine update: No winter pause as Ukraine pushes hard on multiple fronts The war may accelerate to a conclusion soon at the rate Ukraine is advancing. Hopefully they are able to make a similar advance in the north and the whole thing collapses after that. Honestly, the way russia has been fighting recently, it doesn't appear their hearts are in it anymore.
I hope so, but I would not bet that way. Putin does not yet have enough domestic opposition to take his foot off the gas.
Agree on domestic opposition, but what's left in the tank? He can mash the pedal, but if there's no revving.... If he goes full levee en masse - he'll have some domestic opposition then. What would it take under current leadership and tactics to turn the tide anyway? Not sure a million more "troops" would move the dial. All I see is more lobbing of missiles (terrorism) into Ukrainian cities to break the will of the people, but this has historically proven to be ineffective. Particularly against such a united and strong populace. He needs the West to capitulate. That's his only hope. I wonder what Western leadership would do if faced with the choice of invoking Article V or giving up Donbas and Crimea? Hmmm.
they need to crush the remaining Wagner units around Bakhmut. I could be wrong but it appears that Wagner has went all in at that front and if the yooks can crush them there, the rest should fall easier
White House just requested 37B more for Ukraine. Asinine. Just a blank check with little to no oversight on how it’s spent.
Kind of what I thought. That being the case, rather daft to argue lack of oversight. Make your real argument.
Daft is a word that is underused. Bravo. My real argument isn’t actually an argument. Just a statement. They’ve got enough; use the money domestically.
