AR could go to the NFL according to 1010XL "big if"

True! If they had not drafted Jordan Love in that spot, they could have drafted Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman. I believe things would have been different for the Packers right now if they had.

 

Just very underwhelming when comparing his passing numbers to teams defensive passing yards average.
He went off against Tenn, somehow also exceeded UGA's defensive average as well... but otherwise, not great

 

Well there are many issues here and no one really knows what AR is thinking. Of course, everyone has a source who knows a family member who said something to a friend ....And even if true , that might change. So who knows.
Second, should he go ? If it is all about the money right now and he will be either a first or second rounder, yes. "Right now" means " I don't care if I am out of the League in 4 years if I make enough $$$ now." If, however, he really wants to be a great player in the League for a while, then he needs to come back. He still gets NIL $$$ and he gets what he needs most: reps and experience. Then he can be more prepared, get drafted higher and ride that higher draft slot for potentially more years than he deserves. Or it truly helps him be prepared to be a very good QB early in his pro career and grow into a great one.
Let's face it, Lamar Jackson is either a blessing or a curse to him. Lamar got drafted as an athlete, became an elite runner and is now a very good passer. Josh Allen too. Those are the guys who are making AR attractive. And the question is will he be the next Jackson or Allen.
I don't know. I believe those guys seemed like they had much more experience coming out of college.
AR's athleticism isn't going away tomorrow. But at some point, to survive in the League, he will have to be able to be a passer first, even if he can run you to death. The NFL is just too hard to be one dimensional.
Will he go? That depends if he is thinking short term or long term and whether the info he is getting is good or BS, and I do not consider Mel the "Howard Stern of the NFL Draft" a reliable source on what an owner will do. At the same, like someone said, many of these owners are lucky they had rich parents. Many will make a decision from their stomachs rather than their brains and all of them base their decisions from fear. Someone might be afraid to lose AR to another team and overrate him. Or just make a stupid decision circa Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

I think this is only showing draft-eligible/declared QBs, hence they're all RS JR or older.

 

My goodness, what? Lamar Jackson won the Heisman, threw for 3500+ yards two years straight in addition to his running game. Allen had a pretty successful junior season and an ok senior one.

Take those 4 seasons and compare it to what AR has.

That's what would be unprecedented. Not just drafting an athletic QB, but one that hasn't done much at all in college.

 

If you can find me a 1st round QB that has thrown 18 TDs against 13 INTs in his entire college career, I'd expect it to be from 1948 or something.

 

Jackson may have thrown for whatever yards but the concern coming into the League was his passing and he didn't become a good passer until more recently. Allen, like you said, had an ok senior season. He wasn't slated as runner like Jackson, but the thing they both had in common is they were athletes before being recognized as great passing QB's. That's the point they have in common with AR. In fact, Allen threw for less than 50% his first year. My point is if an NFL owner thinks a great athlete like AR is a good enough prospect to take a chance on, even if he doesn't think he is a polished enough passer yet, AR can either thank Jackson and Allen or be concerned they set the mark too high for him to reach fast enough.

 

It wasn't just yards, it was QB rating (hovering around 160). He was a legit good passer in college.

Most rookie QBs are terrible, so that doesn't mean a ton to me. Look at someone like Alex Smith, who had one of the absolute worst rookie seasons imaginable. In fact, I attribute a lot of fear of Tebow in the NFL to Smith's cold start.

It's a big leap from college to the NFL, even for great college QBs. To come out of the gate firing usually means you got drafted by a stacked offensive team.

 

Yes he has. If he stays, I think he'll be better off for it, but if he goes I hope it's to an organization that has let him know he'll have a few years to develop.

Either way, can't ever root against a hometown kid done good.

 

People seem to be significantly underestimating how much of a jump the qb position is from college to the NFL. It's almost like a different position once you're in the NFL. How people can think AR is anywhere near ready for that leap is bewildering.

 

I believe I’ve seen AR move up to #26 in QBR which incorporates rushing. That’s far more respectable than just his passing stats.

I think most have seriously underestimated how much some NFL teams are looking for the dual threat qb now. Hurts, Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Fields…these are the types of qbs many of the teams are looking for and are willing to bring the passing game along as long as the athletic ability is there to set the prospect apart. I am not saying I agree because I don’t. I think passing is the primary qb trait, but I understand this is the current craze.

I don’t really care if AR comes back or not. I’ve enjoyed the occasional highlight play but he’s been inconsistent this year and I expect he’d be better next year, but how much? I’d rather hand the reigns to a better passer and hopefully get game experience for the eventual ‘24 qb.

 

Were those generational talents or just decent QBs who developed over time? My issue is the term generational talent. Thats not a term for a guy who takes years to develop. Tebow is generational, Danny W was Generational. Chris Leak was not but he was a quality QB in college by the end. Trask was great and he had it from that get go once he got a shot. Franks was a guy with all the physical tools but never developed. Brantley was gifted but never really turned the corner. Grier was incredible from the get go as well.

 

Three Gators in the first including AR

If you guys think AR isn’t ready what about Will Levis? AR at least puts some fear in the opposition. Teams WANT to play Levis.

 

I agree with most on this thread, AR is not really a first round QB based on this year, but will that stop him from going? Based on the past, probably not. He’ll be a project QB like Trey Lance.

 

One, I think he will leave at the end of the season. Two, I think this will be a huge mistake for the long term. He is nowhere near ready.

 

Yeah, happy that AR (or any other UF player) gets this opportunity even it does mean they leave school early. What I like the most about AR is that from the very beginning he has been great with fans and interacts with them regularly

 

I agree Levis is a stretch too. I think both are projects. As I said above, I'm sure the NFL wants both to go because they like more choices.
But it's certainly better for AR to stay and develop here for his long-term potential. You might remember Peyton Manning could have gone #1.
He stayed for a 4th year and made hundreds of millions. There's something to be said for a long term NFL career.
I know no one thinks long-term these days, but perhaps they should.

As far as which qb is better. We played UK so there's a head-to-head. Let's check those numbers.

Levis was 13 for 24 for 202 yards. 1 pick, 1 TD. Not good, but not terrible. QBR was 34.2
AR was 14 of 35 for 143, zero TDs and 2 picks. QBR was 2.3. Now THAT WAS AWFUL.

So 2 things...

1) Frankly he should come back next season to get revenge on UK and show everyone that he can outplay a UK defense. (The same defense that allowed 24 points to Vandy. VANDY!) I mean- that's really embarrassing to be outscored by Vandy, but we were. And AR was.
2) If he can't solve the UK defense, how is he going to solve the NFL.

So yeah- in that game I'd much rather play AR, who gave the game away, than Levis, who did not.

Someone up thread said well AR has improved since then. But shouldn't he show much more than a 1/2 season improvement before jumping to the NFL?
(Oh- and he hasn't improved that much. See the last game vs USCe. So many terrible throws. Some good runs though.)

 

That's because you read it wrong.

 

I’ll go try and find and read it again. Great answer hahaha.