War in Ukraine

Some of that is true, some is accurate-ish but missing key context, and there are also some glaring omissions that do not fit the narrative you are constructing. As I’ve said before, though, in most instances it really does not matter what might have happened in a counterhistorical world where Trump won re-election:

Trump is not President.

Biden is.

As far as I can tell, the only reason to make this argument at all is if one feels in their heart that the Biden Administration’s efforts have been wholly inadequate, and they need to tell themselves that it could have been worse. The object here should be to defeat Russia, regardless of who gets credit, not to be making excuses for why we did not do everything we could reasonably to defeat Russia.

 

Russian air superiority finding it's niche with rockets that can be launched 100 miles out when Ukranian rockets require planes to be within 50 miles. Effectively negating any use of Ukranian jets

Russia’s MiG-31 Crews Are Shooting At Ukrainian Pilots From A Hundred Miles Away—And The Ukrainians Can’t Shoot Back (msn.com)

From their lofty perch, MiG-31 crews can search for targets with the jet’s Zaslon radar and fire a single, underbelly R-37M at targets as far as 200 miles away, although the missile works best at ranges no farther than 80 miles. A Ukrainian Su-27 by contrast can fire a Vympel R-27 missile no farther than 50 miles.

When the Ukrainian army launched twin counteroffensives in the east and south starting in late August, the VKS maintained around-the-clock patrols in eight zones over Ukraine, each patrol involving a pair of MiG-31s or a pair of Sukhoi Su-35s.

The patrols were hunting for Ukrainian attack planes—Sukhoi Su-25s, Sukhoi Su-24s and Mikoyan MiG-29s—supporting the counteroffensives. Outside analysts have confirmed Ukraine has lost four MiG-29s, six Su-25s and an Su-24 as well as one Su-27 since the counteroffensives kicked off in late August.

It’s unclear how many of those kills the MiG-31 crews can claim. Probably several. “The VKS has been firing up to six R-37Ms per day during October,” Bronk, Reynolds and Watling wrote, “and the extremely high speed of the weapon, coupled with very long effective range and a seeker designed for engaging low-altitude targets, makes it particularly difficult to evade.”

 

Russian casualties are believed to exceed 100,000, according to U.S. General Milley.

More than 100,000 Russian military casualties in Ukraine, top US general

 

Russia has apparently lost about half of its main battle tanks in Ukraine, according to the U.S. military. They entered the war with the most tanks of any army in the world. The active military had somewhere around 2800 tanks, with another 10,000 or more (mostly older models) in storage.

Russia's military has likely lost half its tanks in Ukraine and will be weaker than it was before the war, Pentagon says

The U.S. has provided 7,000 Javelin tank destroyers to Ukraine.

 

Russian troops face humiliating retreat from Kherson, and the Kremlin is not impressed. Allegedly, Russia's deputy head of the Kherson region was killed in a car crash, struck by a truck at an intersection.

Putin Hit With Humiliating Retreat—and Mystery Death of Crony

 

The main reason for the defeat is the refusal [to carry out] a real war and the catastrophic delay in making necessary decisions.”

I wonder what exactly was meant by that statement?

 

There's a theory that Putin wasn't executing the war to the fullest capabilities of the Russian armed forces. That the brass was constantly asking for Putin to commit more resources.

There could be some truth to it, but it also sounds like an excuse to me.

Both could be true: Russia could have committed more fully. Russian capabilities were over estimated.

 

I think Russia underestimated the resistance they would face. They gave little thought to logistics and supply lines. They thought they just needed enough fuel, food, and ammo to get them to Kiev to accept the surrender of the government. They assumed the locals would be more welcoming, throwing flowers at their feet, inviting the troops in for dinner, etc. For some reason, the locals developed a fair amount of hostility towards the invasion. And the Ukrainian troops didn't run away and scatter.

 

Exactly, they were going to waltz in and take over in just a few days. In almost an instant pootie pie's empire was to have a western frontier at the Polish border. The Ukrainians had other ideas.

 

Perhaps the ruskies thought that they compare to Stormin’ Norman and his nearly instantaneous destruction of Hussein’s best units. If so, they definitely misjudged their own capabilities. I recognize that the the European and Iraqi theatres are quite different… maybe they didn’t. Have a story about an Iraqi surrender but don’t want to get too far off topic.

 

Ukraine update: Fighting underway as Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Russia loses its biggest prize

Depending on how the next 48 hours goes this could go down as one of the worst defeats in modern times. Russia being routed in Kherson.

 

From post--
"So far, Thursday has been like a celebration in Kherson. Ukrainian forces have advanced capturing an untold bounty of abandoned equipment and being greeted in village, town, and city. Now it is just after midnight there on Friday morning. When the next sunrise comes up, Ukraine could hold all of Kherson, and perhaps all of the oblast west of the river.
If the number of Russians still on the west side is accurate, Ukraine may also be about to take a terrific victory, or be on the receiving end of one of the largest surrenders in history. Some Russian forces are reportedly attempting to flee the city under cover of darkness in small boats, or on anything that will float, hoping to be carried to safety downriver. However, Russian troops deliberately smashed many small boats along the waterfront days ago, probably to prevent anyone from getting this idea too early.
What’s happening in Kherson is going to be a story for the ages, no matter what comes next."

 

I am wonderong why russia pulled their air assets out? With their longer range air to air missles they should have the advantage.

 

They may be running low on missiles.

Reservists are being issued WWII weapons. That's how bad things are getting for Russia. By the New Year, they may be issuing WWI weapons, and by Spring, they may issue swords. If Russia is still at war by summer, they may issue spears and stones.

Mobilised Russian reservists in Belarus supplied with WW2 weapons

I suppose the good news for Russia is that reservists are getting actual training with actual weapons, even if those weapons don't actually work.

 

Even against Iraq, the staggeringly successful offensive you mention followed almost two months of air strikes, and the Coalition had air superiority in a couple of days. Now that you bring it up, it is very curious why Putin was so hasty to start his ground offensive without first establishing dominance in the air and at sea. Makes you wonder if Putin knew deep down he couldn’t do either.

 

My guess is that after 20 years in power Putin is surrounded by yes men who told him he could do no wrong. The people who would have told him that invading Ukraine was a bad idea never got the chance to tell him. The people who would have told him start by achieving air and sea superiority were not in the room.

 

That is possible. It’s also possible he did not feel he had a month to spare, shaping the battlefield in Ukraine before pressing the offensive on the ground. And if that’s the case, how happy do we think he is here, nine months later, with relatively little land conquered since Day 1, and currently marching in the wrong direction.

 

Or he had negligent intelligence that told him their overwhelming superiority would overwhelm Kyiv quickly, so he took the easy, fast position.

 

I agree that what was intended as a nice gesture came across as tone deaf. A generous public donation to support the Ukrainian war effort would have played better. As far as MTG goes, [forget] her. If she wants to be the last person in Congress, left or right, to realize that defeating Russia is in our moral interest as well as our cold national security interest, then so be it.