Setting the rotation for this year‘s Gators team might be the most difficult issue that Todd Golden has to deal with this season. As Golden has told us, he usually likes to go with a rotation of nine players narrowing that down to 8 at conference time. However, he is used to coaching teams that do not have great depth. This year’s Gators team has 11 players who, in my opinion, are capable of starting in the SEC. The 12th and 13th players, Denzel Aberdeen and the German kid, also look solid but clearly will not be in the rotation. My hope is that both of these guys are amenable to redshirting this year so that they will retain four years of college eligibility. Denzel, in my opinion, has the same type of capability that we will be seeing this season in our starting point guard, Kyle Lofton. Denzel will almost certainly be in the point guard rotation next year and will be fighting for the starting point guard spot. We need to keep him happy so that he doesn’t jump into the transfer portal. The model for what Golden's rotation should look like is the Billy Donovan team of 1999–2000. Mike Miller played 28 minutes per game on that team before becoming the NBA’s rookie of the year the following year. No one else on that team played more than 23 minutes even though we had 3 other future NBA players on that team. 10 players played at least 13 minutes per game that season. That Gator team, as young as it was, just wore down the opposition when it came to tournament time and went to the national championship game. This year‘s team is the deepest team since the 1999–2000 season. The ninth through 11th players on this year‘s Gators team likely will be, in no particular order, Niels Lane, Alex Fudge, and Jason Jitoboh. You can’t leave any of these players out of the rotation. If you do, they are likely to enter the transfer portal and they will create an unhappy environment in the locker room. So, it seems to me that Golden needs to do what was done in the 1999–2000 season. I believe that no one on this team should play more than 25 minutes per game. That doesn’t mean players like Lofton, Castleton and Reeves aren’t good enough to play 30 minutes or more per game. They are that good. However their back ups, who I hope will be Jitoboh, Richard and Bonham, should be playing 15 minutes per game or so, and more in the case of Richard. My starting lineup, ideally, would be Lofton, Kugel, Reeves, Felder and Castleton. Kugel needs to start early. There’s a significant possibility that he will go to the NBA after one year. We need to get him substantial playing time in the first three games of the season to get him ready for the daunting schedule that follows. He has the chance to turn into a star very quickly and needs the early game experience. My backups in the rotation would be Bonham at the point, Jones at the two, Richard at the three, Fudge at the four and Jitoboh at the five. Lane, would get his playing time at a variety of positions and Richard would also get some additional time at the four. The team should be able to play at an up tempo pace to take advantage of its depth and to keep all 11 players in the rotation happy. To me, this is more than a one-year look at the advantages of the rotation. Next year, we are looking at Jitoboh as the starting five. We are also recruiting a fellow Nigerian who is going to be looking at the playing time that Jitoboh gets this season. It will be very helpful in the recruiting for the Nigerian kid for Jitoboh to be getting 15 minutes or so per game and to be happy. We also want Niels Lane and Fudge coming back next season when they should be much more significant contributors, especially if we see Kugel and Reeves enter into the NBA draft. That’s my thoughts as to the rotation. I would be interested in hearing what others have to say.
I haven't been able to look at film of any of the new transfers so I'm excited to see how this team looks. There definitely seems to be a different energy for this season compared to prior seasons, so I hope TG has success early so he can sustain and even elevate that energy by the time conference play comes around
I am not making any predictions as to actual playing time. Lofton was on a St. Bonaventure team last season where 4 of the starters played 38 minutes per game and the 5th starter played 31 minutes per game. That St. Bonaventure team finished 4th in the A-10 and went to the NIT. My guess is that most of the starters on that St. Bonaventure team would not be starting on this year’s Gators team.
Can't find much to disagree with there. On a side note, I did love that 1999 team. I remember us playing Duke in the NCAA's. We had pulled ahead, but Duke was still battling in a hard fought game. Then, BD sent in 5 substitutions at once. By body language, Duke looked defeated at that point. Would love to see that sort of thing with this team. I'll be interested in how Jitoboh does this year. I have always thought he had some talent. I am hoping he has a breakout year.
I'll be shocked if he and Colin average less than 30 mpg. Particularly Colin, since the stamina of JJ will always be a question, and CTG wants size and rebounding on the floor. Reeves will be close to 30 as well. We'll know in a few hours, but the last I saw, Felder was still in the starting lineup.
Udonis played 22 mpg in 1999-2000; Donnell Harvey played 20 mpg; Matt Bonner played 13 mpg. Mike Miller played 28 mpg. Yes, CC and Reeves are both capable of playing 30 mpg. But, in Reeves case, you also have Kugel, Jones, Richard, and Lane looking for playing time at the 2/3. You also can throw in Bonham for a few minutes at the 2. Are you going to leave those guys with just 50 minutes to divide among themselves? That makes no sense to me. As for CC, Jitoboh keeps getting praised by the coaches, and he is our likely starter at the 5 next season. He deserves, IMO, 15 minutes of playing time per game. Maybe CC will get a few extra minutes at the 4 while JJ is at the 5. However, both Felder and Fudge are looking for time at the 4. It’s a good dilemma to have, and it’s a team game. Part of playing the game as a team game is playing the guys who deserve playing time.
And, it would seem that coach could play any player needed for more than usual when appropriate. I could see situational substitutions that included 5 for 5 at times and those that called for specific players to play longer according to match-ups or the hot hand. Lots to be excited about.
Thanks tampa. Glad BB is about to start, nice win by the Gators at TAMU in football. Deepest team since 1999-2000 is an interesting and encouraging thought. Fired up for the Golden era!
Great summation, thanks,...concerned the Jones of last year gets to many minutes, hope we get the guy from the previous year, hope they give Kugel a longer leash than some others might have, I know Eric really likes Felder over Judge, I'm good with lack of offense from Judge if he's as good on the boards as advertised, hope Richard gets enough floor time (at multiple positions) to produce, I think Reeves will surprise us as being the solid go to guy before the season is over,....excited to see things get started!
I heard Golden say we would be ready to start strong. It will be interesting to see if that means rotation will be more limited. The cream needs to rise to the top. I bet it will be guys with a lot of starts in their past.
You might be right, but why would you start a guy with a lot of starts over a guy who might be a one-and-done?
I agree with you. I was thinking more about the minutes per game that these guys would average over the course of the season.
I made my starting lineup projection many weeks ago… And I’m sticking with it: Lofton Reeves Richard CJ CC book it!
Fun discussion. As I said in one of the threads (on this board?), Golden follows the analytics, and the analytics suggest a rotation of 9-10 for peak defensive efficiency and 7-8 for peak offensive efficiency. In addition to his comment about playing 9 in non-conference and 8 in league play, Golden has also mentioned the target as 10 and 9 elsewhere. Not sure where he settles, but I suspect that sweat spot is probably more like 10-11 in non-conference play as he figures these kids out, then more like 8 + 2 in league play (8 regulars with two optional defenders to help with matchups, like Lane as a longer 2 or Fudge as a longer 3--very hard to predict). While I like the comparison to 99-00 (actually I think 98-99 is a little closer in terms of actual skill distribution across the roster), in no way do I think you absolutely have to play 10-11 to keep players happy. If they can't see why someone else is playing in front of them, then maybe they need to go elsewhere. I can't imagine Golden setting a rotation simply to keep everyone happy. But I do think all 11 possible rotation players will get a chance early to prove they deserve a spot on the court. Any first-year coach would do that regardless, but especially given the depth of this roster. And I don't see the benefit of playing anyone on this team more than 30 mpg, unless Reeves goes unconscious shooting or something this year.
