Another somewhat insightful piece, largely about supplying ATACMS to strike Russian supply lines on the other side of the border (I think), though he doesn’t say that outright
I hope it’s true. I can think of no one who more deserves Parkinson’s combined with pancreatic cancer. But I also hope there’s more to our strategy than sitting around and waiting for this [bad man] to die.
The good news (if there is any) is that war with Russia does not involve the U.S. military risking their lives. It has a financial cost, but one that the U.S. can easily handle. War with China would not be so simple as writing checks and smuggling hardware. And the good news is that by defeating Russia soundly, China may be discouraged from invading Taiwan. And don't forget, there are other dictators out there that may be looking at neighboring lands and deciding that they may want to invade if there is no chance that the U.S. would get involved.
I had largely forgotten about that rumor. When I did remember it, I assumed there was no truth to it. But I agree it would be a good thing. Hopefully it will not generate conspiracies that it was a Western plot, but the Russians have more of a CT culture than we do
I don’t care if the Russians believe that or not. They can all go [do something physically impossible to] themselves.
You’re doubling down! Some people do this. ‘US intelligence’ is an oxymoron. But let’s go with 170,000 to 200,000 Russian troops in theatre. Let’s go with 200,000. The time honored wounded to killed ratio is 3:1. But that ratio has been called into question and may be higher owing to better medical management. But let’s stick with 3:1. 3 X 80,000 is 240,000. 240,000 + 80,000 = 300,000 Russian dead or wounded. That’s 50% higher than the highest estimate of Russian troops said to have been introduced into theatre. Before we go any farther, my question: are you embarrassed ? If not, why not ? If so, how embarrassed ? Moderately embarrassed or thoroughly embarrassed ?
this is an odd question coming from a poster who’s every post embarrasses not only himself but his entire family.
The 80,000 is likely killed plus wounded. Some articles are not specific about how the casualties are defined. So figure 25,000 killed, and 55,000 wounded (I would argue that a larger number of Russians are dying than normal because their positions are being overrun, plus there are many stories of Russians routinely abandoning their wounded on the battlefield. I presume the wounded have significant wounds, and not able to put a band-aid on and continue fighting. The numbers may be higher, because Russia is going to great lengths to hide the number of casualties. Just like the definitions of how big each military is. Russia supposedly has 2.7 million people in its army, but not all are available for fighting. Supply clerks, base personnel, secretaries, intelligence personnel, etc. Estimates of how many soldiers are in the Russian army are about 1.0 - 1.3 million. So about 20% of the soldiers went into Ukraine, about 15% of those have been killed, 25% wounded, and who knows how many have been captured or have surrendered (5,000?). They drafted 300,000 civilians, and have sent about 80,000 of them into Ukraine. They may have sent more of their troops into Ukraine (and almost certainly have) in between the original invasion and the addition of the draftees. Everything you post is an embarrassment. Worry about yourself before you worry about anybody else.
One country is doing well in difficult economic times: Georgia. Apparently, 112,000 Russians emigrated to Georgia with their money, and the locals are enjoying the economic benefit. The Russians still in Russia, not so much. From Russia with cash: Georgia booms as Russians flee Putin's war
You’ve climbed down from “All of the 80,000+ Russian dead are military.” Your assertion has been severely attrited overnight, to use a military term. Much as it may gall you, I’m inclined to believe Russia over your sources (which aren’t really sourced). A month into the conflict, when Russia’s flying columns left its forces the most exposed, Peskov announced that Russia had suffered 1,351 killed and called it a catastrophe and a national tragedy. In late June the BBC was dismayed that it could only account for 4,000 Russian dead against 50,000 Ukrainian dead. On Sept 21 Shoigu announced 5,937 Russian dead against just under 62,000 Ukrainian dead. This all accords with the manner in which Russia has been fighting to date. Few if any frontal assaults. Waiting for Ukraine to advance and then grinding them to dust with artillery, missiles, air attacks and drones.
