Our Biggest Problem: One-dimensional Offense

You have to give AR credit or some of this. It is almost impossible for one player to take him down.

 

I have not been a member for six weeks, this name has been a member for six weeks.
You’re not quite as brilliant as your mouth leads your brain to believe.

 

We are reliant on rushing. Just looking at plays called doesn't give an accurate picture of the offense. We're 35th in rushing YPG and 10th at yards per rush. Conversely, we're 98th in passing YPG and 81st in yards per attempt. Our one dimension on offense is running the ball, and teams that have stopped our ability to run have completely shut down the offense (UK and UGA).

The UT game is an anomaly thanks to their horrid pass defense.

 

But again, when someone calls an offense "one dimensional" it usually means they do one side way more than the other. You can change that easily, what you can't change as easily is the quality.

So instead of saying "we're one-dimensional" you could say "we're not great at the passing game." Which would be somewhat of a "no shit" moment for most Gator fans.

That said ...

Aggregate YPG also isn't a great metric when we run a bit more than we pass. Just look at our last few SEC games:

UGA: 271 yards passing, 100 yards rushing
LSU: 185 passing, 210 rushing (100+ of those from AR)
Mizzou: 66 passing, 231 rushing
UT: 453 passing, 141 rushing

909 YDS passing, 682 YDS rushing

Keep in mind, our running backs are only responsible for 447 of those rushing yards. So this idea that we're a great run team and an godawful pass team doesn't hold up to a lot of scrutiny, particularly since AR has been a big part of the run game and most of his big runs are ad hoc scrambles.

We've got some good horses in the backfield, but until we get some WRs to catch some passes it's going to be tough sledding.

 

Doing something and doing it successfully are very different, and it's certainly fair to say that an offense is one dimensional if only one of the two dimensions is even average at the FBS level. Seems like an odd thing to argue about though, so we can just move on.

I know YPG isn't the best metric, which is why i included YPA for both categories. And including AR's rushing as a way to prop up passing is silly at best. The fact that he's great at running the ball doesn't mask his inability to hit wide open receivers with any consistency. Blaming the WRs for that is nonsense.

 

To me, we have been astonishingly bad at the quick game passing. I believe a lot of this does fall on AR. Recall the failed 4th down slant against LSU. I believe it is in the offense scheme, but Napier knows AR struggles with the timing and accuracy in quick game. I’m sure AR must have hit a slant at some point in his career, I just can’t recall one.

We’ve seen him miss quite a few easy throws. Now, get him scrambling around and play backyard football and AR can throw lasers.

 

I wasn't doing that, even a little bit. I was showing that YPG (and even YPA) is a bit illusory in illustrating we're a really good running game. AR's stats bolster that quite a bit, as he's contributed ~ 25% of total rushing yards.

We've had really good run games from our backs in exactly two SEC games: UK and Mizzou. Here's our rushing stats from running backs in the SEC:

UK: 5.5 YPC
UT: 3.1 YPC
Mizzou: 6.8 YPC
LSU: 4.2 YPC
UGA: 3.52 YPC

I'm not even sure I'd call this average.

I'm not saying AR is a good passer this year, I'm simply saying we're generally pretty balanced, and the stats support that. The problem is we're pretty ineffective across the board, usually in one aspect versus the other from game-to-game (see: UT and our passing attack versus Mizzou and our running approach)

 

Nonetheless, that was the worst play call I can remember. I felt really bad for AR. But calling that play was inept with the game on the line. Who didn't think, "seriously, did that just happen?"

 

Why are you hiding behind a new screen name? Maybe because you made some other outlandish claims that you can’t back up?

 

Primary problem is the defense by far.

Could AR be better? Absolutely. But he's good enough, especially considering he has two more years of eligibility after this year and this is his first year starting full-time.

Defense needs to put the offense in a position where if the offense scores over 30 points in a game, generally, they'll win. Obviously turnovers, returns, and explosive plays complicate things... but we'd be in a much better position if our defense just held opponents to under 30 points every game.

I believe if they did that, we'd be 6-2 right now with our losses being to Georgia (who nobody thought we'd beat this year) and Kentucky (AR's worst game as a Gator).

 

Because our ZONE defense sucks... Man/Press is the way forward.

 

I predict it’ll be the other route. He and his advisory team will take the guaranteed $$$ and run. He’s been listed as a first round pick in almost every mock draft to date. The league loves them some high potential projects, he’s basically Trey Lance.

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Steelers land stud pass rusher at No. 1 overall, Bears add Robert Quinn replacement

 

AR has to have the weakest ankles I have ever seen; either that or he has yet to heal from an early year sprain. It most definitely affected his ability to run in the UGA game and most likely his accuracy passing too....much like what we saw in the Kentucky game. I highly doubt we see Miller this year and at this point, unless he is 100%, why risk it. Kitna surprised me when he got the chance to play but Miller may have been what we needed.

 

I totally agree with the logic of your argument. However, it does seem to rest on the hope that we will have "that guy" on the roster headed into Spring practice. Perhaps we do, but unless one of the guys on the current depth chart steps up in a big way, or we strike gold in the portal, we'll be going into year three with a huge question mark at QB, no matter what AR does re the draft.

 

There's a recent not so flattring podcast with Shane Matthews saying just that, swears that coach can't open up his O due to AR.

 

I agree with you and Stan. From his perspective, and mine, if our run game is quelled, so is our offense. We can and have moved the chains without success running but it didn't equate to points and wins where that was the case. OTOH, when our defense cannot get stops, so it goes...

 

I think this is fair. You could certainly point to the Tennessee game, where we passed all day but couldn't run.

That said, very few people have slowed down UT this year.

 

Our passing scheme isn’t designed for high percentage. It’s a low percentage scheme by design. Long developing pass plays with 2 real routes often 2v1 or 5v2. You can’t put most of it on AR

Do we need a better passing game? Yes

I’d say it’s 75% coaches
10% WR
10% QB
5% OL

 

Shane has become a bit of a blowhard and he has spouted off some Stuff before he was wrong on but there is probably some truth to this. Some.

 

Here's hoping Tennessee is fielding that generational QB where, a few seasons after he's gone, frustrated Tennessee fans are crying for the good old days when they had a QB that could run Huiepppel's offense.