What is going to happen in this mid-term election?

Lawsuits, lawsuits, lawsuits.

 

Polls going the wrong way for Democrats. I don’t think the democrats are aggressive enough on rhetoric. They are appealing to people with common sense, logic and policy when all people want is to know who is at fault for their perceived grievances and how they can be punished and tortured.

 

That’s just how it goes. Whoever is left holding the bag when shit hits the fan gets the blame. No matter who was in power this recession was inevitable. The entire world shut down for a huge part of 2020 and we’ve been kicking the can down the road waiting for the other shoe to drop ever since.

 

Where Our Model Thinks The Polls Might Be Biased
Sorta
In Ohio, for instance, Democrat Tim Ryan trails by only 1.4 percentage points in our polling average, but is projected to lose by 4.5 points, which implies a 3-point polling bias against Republican J.D. Vance.

 

If Zeldin stays within 5-7 points that really shows how national sentiment is right now.

The national sentiment for Dems is not good. But, that is what happens when your entire platform for the 2020 and 2022 elections is "We aren't Donald Trump." That platform is fine if the economy is humming, inflation is down, and people are optimistic. Not so much with the current situation.

 

repubs take house and it won’t be close. They also take senate. Not a blowout but comfortable win. 53-47ish

 

Yeah I think 52-48 Rs in the Senate. House could be in the 240-245 range for Rs. I think Governors turn up about 35-15 for Rs.

 

Whatever happens, the winning side will act as if it has a mandate and will be in power for decades or generations. The losing side will say the sky is falling. America is pretty split right now, and we're likely to see party swings for the foreseeable future IMO. It's really astounding to me that post WWII, the Democrats controlled the House for 40 years. Don't see that happening again in any of our lifetimes.

 

Yep. I remember Newt Gingrich crowing that the Republicans had a structural advantage that would allow them to stay in power for generations. That was 1994. It did not work out that way. Whatever happened to ol’ Newt?

 

The bottom is dropping out of the 2022 election for Democrats | CNN Politics
damn, CNN is telling it like it it. Bottom falling out on the libbies. They’re throwing Barack into the ring out of desperation. I don’t hate it!

 

Part of me has been wondering whether the media that lean left have been writing so much about Democrats' poor chances because they want to increase voter turnout and think that will help. That wouldn't mean the Democrats aren't actually in trouble though. I was skeptical previously that Democrats were ever polling as well as some suggested given we're in a midterm when Democrats have the White House. Generally, I think Democrats tend to be more gloomy; they often wring their hands even when they win - while Republicans often present as victorious and confident even when they lose. There may be some psychological explanation for that if I'm correct.

 

Pubs end up with 235 and 52 and 34 (gov)

 

My theory, assuming this is true “on average”, i’d argue that dems tend to be more analytical, and don’t see politics quite so much as a team sport (which is likely part of the actual strategy of the right, to maintain control and distract where their own base will even vote against its own self- interest, they need them to see it as a team sport where they vicariously believe they get a personal “win”). Obviously this is not 100% and there are examples of people going over the top on both sides. But it’s also why you see righties thinking that boat parades and some dude flying an overly large Trump flag on a truck was a sign of “winning”. Dems don’t seem to be into any of that nonsense.

One of the images from 2016 election that stuck with me was news footage of this random guy celebrating in a bar after Trump won. Dude was celebrating like he’d just won the $1 billion power ball. It was just insane to me just the level of elation this guy had for Trump. Wonder how that all worked out for him?