I did some additional digging and came up with some dirty statistics that show just how important 3rd downs are when affecting the game, opponents, the offense, and what we can expect in year 2. (Warning: Long read, scroll to bottom for TLDR) I'm posting from mobile and I had to use multiple different online sources on this, so please excuse the fact that there may be numbers discrepancies, but the general concepts should be the same. No secret that right now we're allowing ~54.46% of third down conversions, ranked last. I expect it to improve slightly as the season goes on and we'll end up somewhere in the 90s rankings(similar to Patrick Toney's first year at ULL) For the sake of argument, let's assume we can anticipate a similar second year turnaround with third down defense improved to allowing just ~35.3% of third downs. So in this season through 7 games, we're allowing teams to convert an average of 7.53 3rd downs per game. With the same number of opportunities to convert, at 35.3% it would come out to allowing just 4.89 conversions per game in year two. With no other changes. Let's just round up, and call it the difference between 5 and 8 conversions per game. That's basically three drives per game where the opposing offense is stopped instead of having an opportunity to score. If you take the most talented offenses we've faced so far like TN, Utah, and LSU, they're scoring a TD on 50.8%, 44.6%, and 35.7% of their drives. So on average they will score a TD on 43.7% of drives. (Couldn't find the info for other point scoring, so let's look only at TD chances.) If the defense improves to the third down percentage in Toney's second year and shuts down just three more drives per game, that effectively stops our opponents from scoring an additional 9.17 points per game. Now, let's look at the effect on the offense of our defense getting off the field. Our time of possession is atrocious as a result at around 26m:30s per game right now. Assuming that our third down defense improves to similar levels of ULL year two, we can expect time of possession to improve to around 30m:30s. That's *** four additional minutes*** our offense gets on the field as a result. Our offense is currently putting up 31.4 points per game(PPG). Assuming no additional development/changes happens on offense, we would improve to around 35.6PPG from time of possession alone. An additional 4.2 PPG. Just for giggles, let's look at our losses this year, and assume that third down stoppage was improved to the percentage of year two of a Toney defense with no other developments. With stopping drives and Time of Possession both reverting to acceptable levels, would mean at least 9.17 Less points for our talented opponents, and 4.2 more for us each game. Let's round it down and call it an even 13 points to see how it can change a game. KY goes from 26-16 L to 20-17 W TN goes from 38-33 L to 37-29 W LSU goes from 45-35 L to 39-34 W. Keep in mind, this is put together just for fun but it does help to put in perspective how making just 3 third down stops per game can absolutely flip a season. Get our defense off the field, and our Offensive PPG goes from 57th, to 27th. TLDR: Get off the field and everything improves. If defense improves similar to Toney's defensive Year 2 third down conversion numbers at ULL (very plausible), we'd be undefeated right now.
One problem in assuming we will be better next year…our 2 best defensive players leave. Cox and Dexter will be gone.
Improving the 3rd down Defense efficiency is a good objective. What are the goals that you have in mind to make this objective?
Toney has 2 years experience in the Sunbelt as a DC. We can call it what it is... on the job training for him in the SEC. And that is sad, considering all the BS we went through with the last guy that's biggest problem wasn't scheme as much as it was his lack of recruiting. If we at least get our recruiting going it should help some, but we will need someone with real power five experience as a DC if things don't improve by the end of the year.
As much as I'd like to agree I just don't see that happening. He's getting at least one more year after this one.
That might just very well happen, but, as I have said before, I want a HBC that's more like Kirby and less like Mullen when it comes to his staff of assistant coaches.
Napier is that guy. I trust him to identify the issues and address them. Sample size still way too small for me to call for heads at this point. Given what we see all over college football, I’m not sounding the alarm yet. Miami just got curb stomped at home with their all-star DC with P5 experience in Kevin Steele by a middling Duke team.
They're certainly the most acclaimed. I don't know if I'd say that they're necessarily the two best in terms of actual on-field performance/results. Neither has dominated or been a game changer on a regular basis. Not trying to be negative, but it is what it is.
I'm not saying that Napier isn't that guy. I'm fully on board with Napier, but he has to get results and if Toney can't show improvement by the end of the year, do you think he should be demoted? Do you think that someone else should get a shot as our DC? One more time I am NOT talking about Napier as our HBC, but we should see less mental errors and less alignment problems by our defense. And through all that... I still like how the D-lineman and the linebackers are playing for the most part. It looks like they seem to understand our schemes/sets and assignments. The DBs for the most part okay, until 3rd down, but I expect that to get figured out in short order. The errors could be in personnel at the Safety positions, and their assignments or their understanding of their assignments. Toney is directly in charge of the Safeties... he needs to get that right before this game on Saturday to even keep us from getting blown out. It's still early in the season, so we might just be on the precipice of a better second half. I sure hope so. We need to show some positive gains on the field.
I think this years D will remain a mess. Chalk this year up as a rebuilding year and frankly allow youth the experience. I suspect next year UF will go heavy especially on the D side in the portal. I think next year there will be some improvement with lots of new players and lots of talented youth. Toney will indeed get another year or two the way BN has talked him up. If next years D mirrors this years D, changes has to be made before year 3. I just hope BN & Toney is not another Mac& Nuss or Mullen & Grantham. BN has a honeymoon first year but if the D doesn't show some improvement next year, I think the natives will get restless.
The math is flawed in a big way....Forcing someone to punt shortens a drive, it does not eliminate a future drive. So, shortening 3 drives per game (by forcing a team to punt earlier in the drive) leaves more time on the clock for another drive (or two) later in the game (all things being equal, which they should be) by the opponent. To be clear: YES, we need to be better than dead last in 3rd down conversions (lol), and that's critical... but the impact of that won't translate mathematically the way you're showing it.
We'll lose much more than that. There will be another roster purge this offseason. We're projected to have 22 DB's next season, for example (including 6 incoming)...Zero chance they all stick around. The good news: we have 4 true freshmen getting quality PT, and more RS freshmen playing for the first time....They SHOULD all take that sophomore leap. We'll see.
Nothing to argue with there. But I can't get past the feeling that the safeties are still laboring under the burden of bad coaching and bad habits instilled by the previous staff - and for whatever reason just haven't embraced the new scheme/assignment discipline like we all hoped they would. Frankly, an accurate assessment of Toney's true abilities may not be possible until the new generation of safeties hopefully takes the field next year. The wildcard in the deck is the long-shot chance of Geof Collins coming aboard in some capacity after the season. That could affect the DC situation job in pretty short order, depending on how things are going with Toney heading into next season. Time will tell.
The problem with waiting until next year to see if you truly have a problem is #1 you are letting players get used to massive underperformance and breeding frustration and losing attitude which you will eventually have to dig out from. #2 you are totally cashing in next years team if you do indeed have a problem with your defensive coaching staff essentially wasting the next season and then trying to eliminate a much deeper ingrained losing attitude. Im not sure what job would keep you on if you were at a historically great business performing as the absolute worst employee in a staff of 131. I mean really who tells their boss in that scenario wait till next year Ill be much better.....youre shit canned and replaced quite frankly before your bad habits wear off on others. Sorry Ive got no good feelings for our defensive coaching and someone needs to be pruned to set an example and clean up this mess rather than waiting "to see" if it gets better at next years expense.
Toney's stats at UL from year to year were uneven at best. He was not great, then respectable then regressed and then a little better. Not sure what to make of that but the UL defenses were a little inconsistent. I would rather a steady progress.
Recruiting is not the problem in this defense. Over 25% are five stars (Marshall, Cox, and Dexter) and most are four stars. They are significantly underperforming that talent. (Granted, they may not have the overall talent to be an elite defense, but the talent is there to be an average to above average SEC defense, not last to next to last in the SEC and dead ass last on third down in all of college football). It is also not the scheme; there are successful 3-3-5/4-2-5 defenses throughout college and in the NFL. There have been many on here calling for the Defense to be simplified so that the players know the roles they need to do and work in the wrinkles from there. I think, for this year, a great place to start doing that is to eliminate defensive lineman dropping in to coverage. Toney can get the "simulated pressure" playing with the linebackers and secondary. I hope Toney will be here next year and think that then might be a good time to work in some of the defensive line dropping into coverage. This year, rather than inviting the offensive line to make a mistake, it seems we are putting our player in a position to blow the coverage.
First, I wholeheartedly agree we have more talent on D to be this horrendous. I know a lot of fans on this site expect a great deal of improvement next year (how can there not be) but just having a great recruiting class isn't going to automatically make for a good defense. Texas A&M is finding this out. I suspect next year we will have portal guys, some new recruits and some holdovers and will only be slightly better than we are now. Toney is not going anywhere based on BN's recent comments. I too believe he is way over his head, the SEC is a whole different animal than where he's been. I also think BN is too nice of a guy to make such a move. He may consider it next year if we have similar issues only because the noise will get much louder. I think a lot of pressure will be on Toney to make some progress with the games remaining otherwise doubts will persist. But like some of you here, why are we not seeing progress or growth at this point of the season?
