What is going to happen in this mid-term election?

Ask me after October the 14th

 

The special election for the open seat in NY's 19th district could be telling. In most of the polls leading up to the election Molinaro, the Republican candidate who was also the County Executive of the largest country in the district was leading in most of the polls. Ryan the Democrat ended up winning. Molinaro focused on the economy while Ryan focused on the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Democrat Pat Ryan wins bellwether special election in New York’s Hudson Valley
Marc Molinaro leads Pat Ryan in NY congressional race: poll

Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro leads Democrat Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan for Delgado’s vacated 19th congressional district seat 49.5% to 39.7% with about 11% undecided, according to the Triton Polling & Research survey conducted for Freedom Council USA.
A survey released six weeks ago for the same independent, right-leaning GOP firm, Freedom Council USA, also had Molinaro leading Ryan among likely voters 51.6% to 38.4%​

 

1. Welcome back.
2. I'll tell uou what isn't going to be the deal the left wishes it was. Abortion.
They need it yo take the attention away from the economy, but abortion just isnt a day to day issue for 99.9% of Americans, but gas and housing is.

How that translates in our polarized society, I have no idea, but my gut tells me it wont be a great day for the blue team.

 

In before "COVID will go away in June 2020" comments.

 

Of course Ryan's team lied about Molinaros record on abortion which has actually been more moderate than the false ads depicted.

The dems are doing the same to Michael Lee here in NC. Lying in ads about him allowing exceptions for health and rape.

Its a desperation move to distract from what most Americans are worrying about daily.

 

I haven't looked at polling lately. Seems people have been saying Rs will take House and the Senate will be close. I have no gut feelings or bases to believe I know what's going to happen any more than anyone else. The Democrats are obviously hoping the Supreme Court swing brings out a lot of new or less consistent voters. Republicans are hoping the voters blame Biden for gas prices and inflation. Historically, the party in the WH doesn't usually do well in midterms. If the Democrats were somehow able to hold the Senate, I would consider that a moral victory if not a practical one given that judicial appointments and impeachment trials happen in the Senate.

 

The R's take the House and immediately disband the Jan 6 cmte. Then they start having hearings about Hunter Biden, that the Jan 6 cmte was formed in the first place, and introduce articles of impeachment on Joe Biden. The Senate? who knows. I don't see either party gaining a super majority.

 

Gee, what a head scratcher. Pubs & dems will win, America will lose. Same policies, diff outrages.

 

By the way I still think that the Republicans will regain their majority in the House although not by a very large margin.

 

The Republicans are going to win.

 

Any Repub that loses will claim voter fraud or that things were rigged

 

In the list of what’s most important to voters, I’ve noticed one that I’ve never seen before: Future of Democracy in the US. Take that and the reality that women make up a sizable majority of newly registered voters, and several Bozo candidates and I’d have to say I don’t have a clue.

 

As per usual

 

My guess

Democrats hold the senate, republicans narrowly take the house.

This really should have been a slam dunk for Republicans but between Dobbs and new abortion bans, Trumps continued idiocy and some horrifically bad Republican candidates it will likely generally split down the middle.

 

Not so sure on the abortion dynamic. It motivates more young voters to vote, who other wise may not, and is also going to pull some suburban soccer mom types who aren’t really keen on these nuts getting involved in their reproductive rights.