I was curious to go back and see what AR looked like after halftime. I had thought during the game we were about to see a meltdown similar to the UK game. We didn't, and he had a nice TD pass that was really critical on 3rd down. I wanted to see what every play looked like that was intended to be a pass: Drive 1 1st & 10 at FLA 25 (15:00 - 3rd) Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds to the Fla 30 2nd & 14 at MIZ 33 (15:00 - 3rd) Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 1 yd to the Misso 32 3rd & 13 at MIZ 32 (15:00 - 3rd) Anthony Richardson run for 2 yds to the Misso 30 Drive 2 2nd & 10 at MIZ 43 (9:30 - 3rd) Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Justin Shorter 4th & 2 at MIZ 35 (7:24 - 3rd) Anthony Richardson run for 32 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST down Drive 3 3rd & 5 at FLA 28 (15:00 - 4th) Anthony Richardson run for 5 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Isaiah McGuire) to the Fla 48 for a 1ST down 1st & 10 at MIZ 16 (15:00 - 4th) Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the Misso 12 3rd & 3 at MIZ 9 (11:10 - 4th) Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KIC Drive 4 2nd & 19 at FLA 48 (3:50 - 4th) Anthony Richardson pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the Misso 47 3rd & 14 at MIZ 47 (2:57 - 4th) Anthony Richardson pass intercepted So there were only 10 potential plays called in the 2nd half (might be misremembering one of these as designed run) where Richardson dropped back to pass. In those 10 plays in the 2nd half, the results were: 4-6, 20 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT 4 runs, 43 yards, 1 4th down conversion, 1 3rd down conversion So I just want to say that despite that stat line not looking the greatest, it is also far superior to what he did against Kentucky. I believe this is partly a sign of his maturation and development, and also a sign that Missouri's defense was not as good as Kentucky's. A few odds and ends: 297 yards for Florida, 17 points, in 46 plays. That's 6.45 yards per play, which is good, and 17.5 yards per point, which is bad. The missed FGs hurt that number. With the made FGs that climbs up to 12.9 and anything under 13 is good. What is becoming evident with this team is that every possession is important because they or only getting about 10-11 possessions per game, which is insanely low (only 8 against Missouri). So they need to rethink long FGs if they aren't high percentage. It may be better just to go for it from now on with those 45 plus yard FGs as long as the down and distance isn't too outrageous. Florida is now 4th nationally in yards per rush. At the beginning of the seasons we all said the team would rise and fall with Richardson, but I actually think at this point it will rise and fall with the running game. That includes Richardson, but essentially Florida won't win games when teams slow down their running game. See UT and UK where UF only averaged 3.4 and 4.5 yards per rush. I just don't think AR has it this year to carry the team on his back with the pass - the one weird outlier being UT, but their secondary looks suspect. I do think AR can help open up the run with his legs - and despite worries about him getting injured, outside of one great pass, it was his legs that did the most damage against Missouri, extending drives and plays at least 3 times. LSU will be a big test of this theory. Although UT just shredded them, their run defense for the year is only giving up 3.87 yards per carry - which implies that Florida will probably need to pass the ball to win next week. They appear much more vulnerable through the air - so this might be a tough matchup for Florida.
I felt that Napier really didn't have a feel for the game when attempting two long field goals in those situations. Just felt like the game was slipping and the risk reward was not worth trying a long field goal at either point. He caught a lot of grief for going for it in other games but I'd rather he coach as if it were 4 down territory or punt. Maybe the kicker makes those in practice so who knows. Just felt like it was a turning point in the game. We had opportunities to go up multiple scores in several games now and botched it every time with the exception of EW.
Perhaps our offense will keep improving and the running game in particular. Johnson and Etienne are improving and gaining confidence. What a monster duo they will be next year after experience and maturation. Look at the remaining teams we play with a good front 7 and halfway decent secondary and likely we will struggle. But if our defense can rise to "average", it will make all the difference.
You just gotta go for the plays that give you the highest value. Our kicker, I double checked this morning is 4-4 under 40 yards and 1-5 over 40 yards. So we only have a 20% chance to get points on kicks over 40. So as long as your season stats on converting (factoring in distance) are better than 20% we should be going for it and not kicking. I’ll have to break that down to see what are conversion rate is based on distance.
So looking at the rest of the schedule here are the rush defense rankings based on yards per rush. Uga - 3.5, #39 Lsu - 3.87, #56 Fsu - 3.97, #60 USC - 4.28, #86 Van - 4.64, #108 Tamu - 4.67, #109 Georgia has a really good pass defense too so uf is probably in trouble there. Tamu, fsu, and usc are also decent against the pass (all top 50) so if they do manage to slow Florida down like Kentucky did Uf will be in trouble in those games. Kentucky only has the #70 rush defense too, but the are #11 nationally in pass efficiency defense. So just food for thought.
tennessee by a lot. #7 nationally. 2.79 per play allowed. Should be an interesting match up with Alabama next week who has one of the best rushing games in the country.
I sincerely appreciate the optimism. AR showing up emotionally distant and unprepared (again) is completely unacceptable on every single level, in any walk of life. I am NOT talking about his performance/stats...I am talking about his emotional state (which for him, is directly correlated to quality of play). This has nothing to do with how many starts he has, how many this and that....whatever. I am not talking about that....I am talking about his emotional state. There are (too) many times where he's so checked out, that he seems like he wants nothing to do with the moment. Not surprisingly, his play improved after he got dinged up. I keep telling my friends that he needs designed runs to start the game, to get emotionally engaged.
AR's ability/willingness to run allowed the offense to work. He's not yet a good enough passer for us to have much of an offense unless he runs.
I wouldn't say I'm optimistic. During the game I called for him to be benched because of how he looked emotionally done - similar to the UK game. That being said, I think he pushed through that and helped Florida win against Mizzou. That's a sign of growth, albeit maybe not as much growth as we were hoping for. He is going to get challenged again by LSU, let's see what he does.
You can see though why his opportunities are limited. His numbers are just not justified to lead the offense in comparison to handing off to Johnson 8.0 ypc and Etienne 6.8 ypc. The only back who has more yards per carry in the conference is Gibbs, a freak RB at Bama. Yes, our guys are 2 and 3 in the conference. When Bama loses their AllAmerican at QB, who does Saban go to? Gibbs of course, as CBN has to do with Johnson and Etienne when AR has one of these frequent inconsistent passing games.
One FG attempt was on 4th and 11, the other was on 4th and 5. So they weren't short yardage situations, I mean I could see going for the 4th and 5 instead of a 50 yarder, but the other kick was justified. I don't blame either miss is on the kicker, if it were McPherson and he had a track record of hitting those then sure. Anything made over 45 yards should be a blessing, right? The game felt like the Kentucky game to me because it had zero flow. I think Mizz did exactly what they wanted on offense which was limit our possessions and keep the game at arms length for 4 quarters. They seem to have a knack for that when playing us the last decade. I think this game shows how bunched together the middle of the conference is. UF gets the pick 6 and big red zone int late that in turn leads to UF points. The exact opposite happened in the Kentucky game, even with the no show from AR, UF is probably 3 plays from beating Kentucky, same could be said for Mizzou Saturday. Honestly same could be said for mizzou the weekend before against UGA. The positive would be that although the stat line isn't great, it's ugly, AR didn't just go into a coma like that UK game. Play calling seemed to be quicker to adjust as well, and the running game helped him through it. Good win, glad to be off the SEC losing streak.
I thought the turning point was up 10-0 and we were driving around the Mizzou 25 on 3rd and short, the play call was really bad and that was what caused us to try a field goal. Everything seemed to come undone at that point. Not sure if it was a bad call or bad execution but at that point when we had a chance to really control the game and needed a sure first down.
Yeah. I got grief for saying that Napier wasn't aggressive in that situation. Aggressive meaning looking at it as 4 down territory at that point and calling plays for that goal. He has done it before in more questionable circumstances so I'm not sure why it seemed like irrational complaining to suggest that was a good time for it. 17-0 can send the opponent into a different game plan and make them one dimensional. It also allows your struggling qb to maybe loosen up and take some pressure off of himself. Just my opinion.
On the 4th and 5 - that was the 50 yard attempt. Is our percentage on 4th and 5 really less than 20%? Although at that point our kicker was 1-3 on the year at 40+, so it was 33% but I still thought it made more sense to go for it. On the other one it was 4th and long, so I get trying it. Hopefully at some point they scrap the hurry up after a long run. It hasn't worked all year.
agreed. He's a much more effective player and it helps keep his confidence going when he's mixing things up and getting positive yards on the ground. Like you said, the offense looks a whole lot better when defenses have to respect AR's legs and a whole lot worse when they don't.
Correct. This should be obvious to everyone by now. This offense's strength is in the run game, and that doesn't work so well until AR gets a couple of carries in the books.
Some of you guys should be on the coaching staff. It's the same every year when fans know more than the coaches.Amazing!
