Russua would need 500k plus in Ukraine to have more guys on the ground. So the manpower edge is something that isn’t going away. and the 300 k being mobilized - we are assuming they are receiving the same quality training as Ukraine - or the guys at the front getting their shit pushed in?
How is Russia's military so stupid ,with all that firepower ,and much bigger military that they are getting their butts kicked in all directions? It was clever to place the Baltic Fleet underwater so Ukraine would look the other way. LOL
So as I’ve underscored, that certainly doesn’t support your contention that Ukrainian troops are better trained.
Right - apparently they are pushing Russia back because russia is choosing to run backwards in panic as part of a grand strategy.
I contest the contention that they are getting their butts kicked in every direction. Ukrainians, with the aid of the best intel the US has to offer, search long and hard for pockets where Russian troops are sparse or absent. 200k or more dead and wounded Ukrainian troops are a testament to Russian back-support via artillery and such. Russians can reach Ukrainians from afar, but not the reverse. That’s firepower advantage.
Noted: your highly speculative insertion of ‘panic.’ What’s wrong with trading space for time ? If you US understood this it might win a war every once in awhile.
Nothing wrong with it if that was what was actually happening. But considering the Kremlin keeps replacing it's generals, in addition to a lot of other decisions they have been making, the narrative doesn't line up with reality.
I can't really speak to their efforts in Georgia and Chechnya, but to me, if I'm a Russian soldier and I'm told by my commander that I'm going on a little training expedition in Ukraine and then I find out it's actually the largest war on Europe's soil in 75 years, I know I was bald faced lied to and I don't want to fight... I am just looking for my quickest way out. And I think that explains what's happening with the Russian military in Ukraine. Just like if public sentiment in Russia turns to the degree of mass protests on Red Square, etc, I don't think you'll see the Army do much to stop it. Which is why we really, really need to figure out a way to spark massive protests inside Russia. There have been some protests, but they've been smaller and too easy to contain. Once the Russian people turn on Putin en masse, this Army won't stand in their way. The key is getting to that point. We're making some progress, but not nearly enough or fast enough.
‘keeps replacing’ is more narrative-shaping. Armies replacing field generals happens all the time. Zelensky has fired a few. It might just mean Russia has high demands.
Things in Russia would have to get worse, by an order of magnitude, for this to become a Russian Vietnam.
With exception of one other poster, virtually every assertion on this thread is predicated on Bad Man Putin. Because Bad Man Putin ... Someone knows someone who knows someone who heard somewhere that some Russian promised to capture Kyiv in 48 hours. That clearly didn’t happen. Therefore, Russia bumbling. Somebody pointed out that wars, on average, last 1-3 months. This one has been going for more than seven months. Therefore, Russia bumbling. Partial-mobilization was authorized nearly two weeks ago. Where are the new troops on the contact lines ? Therefore, Russia bumbling.
There is consternation in Russia at present, top to bottom, primarily over ceding territory to intruders in the territory of Kherson. I find this shocking. I thought Russia was a totalitarian dictatorship. How are people speaking out like this and not getting shot ?
I think the hardships will be the hardest on soldiers who have just been removed from a leisurely life and forced to join the war effort at gunpoint. If they aren't happy with their "air conditioning" or cell phone service, or food quality, they're out of there. And any officer that stands in their way is likely to get mowed down with their AK-47. The Russian army better think twice before they issue bullets with their AK-47's to these new "recruits".
I think the solution to the Russian problem has to be an organic Russian solution. If we are seen to forment opposition to the war that could be a rallying cry to stand pat with what they have now.
I thought it was Ukrainians who were getting snagged off the streets and press-ganged into the military.
I gather that has been the case. Russians read the same news we do. They knew that sanctions were intended to create economic hardships for them. And they know that the West is sending weapons, to the Zelensky regime, to kill their fellow countrymen.
You can't just stamp "soldier" on a guys forehead and decide that he is a top-of-the-line fighting machine. This is a war in Ukraine, not Hollywood. Ukraine will continue to have the advantage in battle-hardened soldiers, as well as the willingness to keep on fighting for what they (rightfully) believe is their homeland. Some of the new Russian soldiers are criminals on furlough from prison, some are contractors, some are former farmers and tradesmen, etc. What they all have in common is that they know little about warfare, and they all know that the Russian army regulars are scared sh*tless by the Ukrainians. Can you blame them for being terrified and ready to surrender at the drop of a hat?
It doesn’t do you any good to be battle-hardened if you’re going to be torn apart by artillery tomorrow.
No doubt, which is why, in part, the sanctions have really helped us much in this regard. It's too easy for Putin to point the finger at us as the cause of the economic pain.
