Really ? I remember an Israeli F-16 being shot down by a Russian S-200 over Syria. S-200’s are the Russian equivalent of a slingshot in their arsenal. The reason Turkey is holding off, on a second batch of S-400’s, is primarily political and has to do with balancing US AND Russian support. The reason why the US denied Turkey F-35’s is because it was alarmed that Turkey was buying S-400’s. Comparing S-400’s to our Patriots, S-400’s don’t shoot down everything, whereas Patriots don’t shoot down anything. Which would you want to fly over ?
tampagtr said: That leads me to add a thought of my own. One of the very frustrating ways that you avoid even more destructive war is through giving an offramp to dictators which is completely unfair, allowing them to escape accountability and keep a lot of their ill-gotten gains. It's maddening, but sometimes if you don't, you leave them with no incentive except to fight till the end. So it may be necessary to do that for both Putin and for some of the oligarchs. Consider: Putin Oligarks are getting whacked left and right. Ukranian forces continue to advance and retake territory Russian males / service age are fleeing Russia in significant #'s Domestic unrest is increasing The "heavies" whom could support Russia - India/China say "No" Ukraine, Finland, Sweden are applying to NATO The Russian conventional miitary has been exposed as a sham Economic Pressures are Increasing Winter is coming Russian logistics, support / operational capabilities are "der'mo" This bomb has blown up in Putins face. This "Police Action" is a Military disaster of the first order and makes Vietnam look tame by comparison. Do I believe that Russia could roll over Ukraine if the population was fanaticly supportive - Yes I do - but they are not. Commissars can't control the information flow and the realities of the front. The days of setting up machine guns behind the charge and mowing your retreating soldiers down is over. Add to the fact that the Ukranians are not bombing, raping and killing the Russian general population or invading the border. (Putins territorial claims in Ukraine be damned). The civilian populations biggest worry is the Russian policing entities or forced impressment into the military. This deal has gone bust. It's just a matter of time...............
a few things. Let me explain better what I understood them to convey that the Russians were waiting till winter. Right now they are getting routed. But purportedly the Ukrainians will not be able to advance during winter conditions. In his heart of supply lines are, they will at least be able to take some time to build defenses and train up the new reservists. That is at least the way it was explained. I'm not claiming any personal expertise. In terms of the vengeance angle, I completely understand. That's why said it so hard to do. But even if Ukraine can continue throughout the Russians, humiliating losses always tend to get avenged in time. It may take a bit
Latest Russian poll on partial-mobilization. Basically ... 61% unequivocally support 32% somewhat ambivalent 6% disagree
To #10723 ... Ukraine is presently marauding, over open pastures, in borrowed tanks, probing for areas where Russian troops are light or absent which, presently, is most of the contact line, and are being chewed up by artillery and air attacks. Upwards of 300,000 fled Russia after partial-mobilization. In contrast to our Vietnam era, when nearly 600,000 dodged the draft, and many were arrested, Russia says “Go, we don’t want you.” Domestic unrest is rising and has reached a level not seen in the US since Coca-Cola temporarily replaced Coke with Real Coke. India and China are saying no ... to US empire. Sweden and Finland were already NATO-operable. The Russian military has been exposed as a sham in the same way that Alabama would be so exposed if it only fielded six on each side and second and third-team players at that. Economic pressures are increasing ... on US and Europe. The collective West will run out of weapons before Russia. Russian approval for Putin is falling ... to 77% Russian troops say why attack your enemy when your enemy comes to you to be killed ? Zelensky fired his minister who fabricated the narrative of Russian mass-rape. Apparently there are lies too outlandish even for Ukrainians. Ukrainian conscription is considered a sign of resolve, whereas Russian partial-mobilization is considered a sign of desperation.
Russia sends S-300 back home from Syria amid Ukraine invasion, satellite images show Little linky ( you might try them some time) disputes you. Try again. Btw the way, your underwater naval fleet must have been using those super duper anti- missile batteries. This is easy.
I'm no professional either, just a dude that's read a lotta books. Looking up winter in Kherson, it looks a bit warmer than coastal southern Maine where I live, and a whole lot less snow. From my unprofessional perspective, that's not the type of winter that completely shuts down operations. There will be no freezing fuel, no chest deep snow stopping movements, etc... Im more than willing to be wrong here though
i believe that the winter challenges are more related to the soils being able to bear the weight of artillery when wet and not frozen. If artillery is limited to just the road network, it becomes much more vulnerable.
100%, and I alluded to that upthread. But increased mobility due to frost in the ground would only be advantageous to the power that's been limited by a lack of mobility. A power that's been unable to bring it's full strength to bear. Do we believe that's Russia? I don't. Plus, who will greater freedom of movement benefit more: those intimately familiar with the terrain or a foreign invader?
There is nothing dark and inscrutable about the terrain. Ukraine knows where the Russians are, Russia knows where the Ukrainians are. Russia would have eventually prevailed on firepower alone. But now Ukraine’s manpower advantage is being erased and even reversed.
More reports of the highly-disciplined Russian army on its way to victory! Russian Infighting Peaks With Calls for Suicide and Execution Looking good, eh, Comrade? Putin's birthday is tomorrow--anything special planned? Maybe cook up some Russian-style "Meat for Slaughter" barbeque? A side dish of Surrender Slaw might be delicious, too.
I’d like to see every oligarch’s home in Crimea destroyed by a rocket so they can experience what the Ukrainian people have.
So would I, absolutely. But sometimes it's the only way to avoid destroying a lot more Ukrainians and killing them. Either way, it's up to me. But I completely agree with you emotionally. It's just that sometimes you have to make unjust concessions in the interest of promoting peace.
Your a prime example of the efficacy of American soft power. Blame the Russians for years of Ukrainian nationalists shelling ethnic-Russian civilians. Strike back by seizing the yachts of rich Russians who hate Putin. Amp this up by taking cold showers and bellowing, “Take that, Putin!”
Okay them what’s wrong with one Kremlin propagandist against a bevy of State Department propagandists ?
