The pretext for the invasion was WMD, which was obviously a lie. And killing a concocted Hitler was about the only thing we accomplished. Given our own government’s track record, we don’t get to rage against other countries’ invasions ... Army’s long-awaited Iraq war study finds Iran was the only winner in a conflict that holds many lessons for future wars
The only way I can see Russians tossing Putin is if he doesn’t finish the job in Ukraine. I put the odds of Putin being in charge, after Biden’s gone, at 99%.
An interesting article on Russia’s failure to plan for continuity of the economy in the event of mobilization (and mass exodus). Putin’s mobilization will further upend the Russian economy
I have to admit, it took me a long time to follow this advice. Engaging with Russian agents for the pure purpose of talking trash is a little like, say, engaging in self pleasure with hand sanitizer (I’ve heard). Interesting at first, then progressively painful, you never reach a satisfying conclusion, and you never tell yourself “Man, I’m glad I did that.”
US can’t stop losing wars. Ex ... US in 2011: “We’re going to remove Assad.” Russia in 2015: “Nope.” Assad in 2022: “Still here!”
if things get worse for them I would agree, but for now I think they are overblown a bit. Even the 760k is only .5 percent of their population. I think it’s still very manageable for them in that regard.
It's conceivable that the Russians could be incompetent militarily, and quite capable in other areas. Their military has been plagued by corruption at all levels, and has not had a fight like this (in the European theater, against a capable opponent) since WWII. Russians do not have to sway a large number of voters to affect an election. Just enough to swing the election to the other candidate. We have already seen how easy it is to fool people with fake news stories--we have everyone from Congressmen to our own posters quoting these fake news stories. Russians are known to be very good at basic sciences (physics, chemistry, etc.) because they have had a space program for decades, plus many years of weapons development on a fraction of the U.S. budget. They are also known to be good at computer hacking. I'm sure that being a closed, communist society also has an impact on things that Russia is good or not so good at. Having a one-party system means that there is no public debate about things like military corruption and incompetence, so less chance of correcting problems. The biggest issue is that the Russian economy collapsed 30 or so years ago, and this set back much of their development, especially of their military. Most of their weapons in use (tanks, artillery, etc.) are from the 1980's.
You can't lose a war that you don't fight. While we supported one of 11 groups that were battling for Syria, that hardly qualifies as fighting the war. If you don't fight the war, you can't lose it. Just like Ukraine: the U.S. is not fighting in Ukraine, much as some people would like to imagine. No planes in the air, and no boots on the ground = no participation in the war.
I think it is actually significantly worse than the 0.5% indicates, because the people who are leaving are not the average (random) Russians. They are less likely to be retirees, for example, and more likely to be of working age. They are less likely to be farm hands and janitors, and more likely to be professionals (they have to willing and able to travel internationally, and have enough money to stay somewhere else). This is not just about the body count of evacuees. The impact to the Russian economy from this will be significant.
Will the military be doing a ballet or an opera to slow down the Ukrainian advance? Those might be their best options at this point, but I don't think it will slow down Ukraine very much.
Yes, I realize all of this, but it's not like our own major parties here don't disseminate misinformation on a regular basis. Anything from Russian propagandists is just a tiny drop in the sea of shit that already exists inside American politics. Blaming Russia for moving the needle anywhere in our elections is giving them way too much credit and is also doing Vlad Putin a favor by lending his minions credibility where it's not deserved.
We'll probably never be able to defeat Russia's military (and Putin's "military conquest" mindset) any cheaper than we are during this war, and without any direct U.S. military involvement. Question away, but that's the bottom line. As an added bonus: Russia will be dissuaded from external conquests for a long time after this, and China may be as well. I would ask the question: what is peace between the superpowers worth? Answer: probably a lot more than what we invested in those HIMARS and ammunition for them.
