Mods - I fully understand there is a long thread on the Ukrainian "WAR", this is NOT about the war, as much as a thread providing opinions, and asking opinions, of what the Geo/Political realities will be once that conflict is over. If you feel it's redundant, then merge, I however, believe it to be a seperate and important topic of discussion. Ok, now on to the topic: In my opinion, there are several scenerios that will play out. Lets get the first one off the table that hopefully DOES NOT happen: Escalation and a Nuclear Exchange. I.M.O. - Given the sham "vote" yesterday / today by the Russian Confederation to declare certain Ukrainian, eastern territiories as now being part of "Mother Russia", what is happening is a play by Putin that we should all be familiar with post WW2 and really, "Real-Politik" of much of the geographic "imaginary political lines" that define a "country" in the world today. Think: N / S Korea (The DMZ) - What a "sham" expression "De-Militarized Zone" is, it's nothing of the sort, in reality "DMZ's" are the most militarized areas on earth that seperate political bounderies. Think "Berlin" post WW2 or East and West Germany. Think N and S Vietnam. Think Taiwan and China Some of the principal examples of the still on-going conflict that seperates Western Democracies from what was once considered "Democracy vs Communism" but in my opinion would be more accurately described now as Western Democracies vs Authoritarian / Totalitarian rule. So - The way I see it, unless the pathetic little Czar is a narrssist of the first order and launches nukes, it will play out this way: Combat will continue. Soldiers will die, People will suffer. it is clear to me that Putin sabotaged Nordstream II in an attempt to make Western Europe suffer a long, hard, expensive winter, as his "ACE" to create yet another "DMZ", in Urkraine, between "East and West". He can claim "Victory" on a political level by telling his constituents that Russia has expanded it's territory, thwarted NATO expansion and proven Russia is still a first rank world power. This, IMO is total BS. Geo/Politically the way I see it, should this scenerio play out, Russia will have LOST Geo/Political power and prestige in the political game should Finland, Sweden and 85% of Ukraine join NATO. That of course remains to be seen. This scenerio at least offers an alternative to a full blown Russian Confederation vs NATO conflict. Zelenski will have little choice in the matter, considering Ukraine has and will continue to be a "pawn" in a Chess Game, that has been ongoing, since the YALTA Conference of 1945. At least, thats the way I see it.
The Planet Has 12 Years —> Stay Home, Save Lives —> I Can’t Breathe —> I Got My Covid-19 Vaccine —> Bad Man Putin
I do agree that Zelensky is a puppet. Pleading for he and Putin to come to the table glosses over the fact that the US and U.K. are actively undermining peace talks. But people are missing the point on the referenda and subsequent annexations. The Trumpian election denial of the West is neither here nor there. Points of interest include how long it will take to cleanse the occupiers and how the new territories will be governed and whether or not they will serve as a launching pad for further annexations.
I would make it perfectly clear that any Russian or Russian puppet who takes on a government role in any “annexed” territory will be assassinated and their family deported to Russia.
Question: if the Kremlin launched a decapitation strike on the White House, what would that accomplish other than to remove the cardboard figure they stand up at presidential press conferences ?
First I don't agree with your analysis of Putin being responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. It makes no sense Putin would remove the only bargaining chip of opening the pipelines once a diplomatic solution is reached. Keep in mind Putin had already shut the pipelines down so why destroy them? It makes no sense to me that NATO or the European nations would destroy the pipelines either as the only hope of economic stability for all of Europe was to reopen the spigot that has been destroyed. This has all but assured Europe will be suffering from an energy crisis for years to come. People should be very concerned about this development as it has now signaled to the world that industrial achievements are now fair game. What's next the pipeline that was opened on the same day as the destruction of Nord Stream, communication cables, satellites, mining facilities, water plants, etc.... Second the annexation is certainly a political event that is contrary to what western democracies want. Claiming the areas of annexation is a sham given the demographics of the area is a cop out. You don't like it so therefore it must be a sham. That is a mantra that spread throughout the world as every vote that is taken worldwide has now come under such scrutiny regardless of what people want. Third it doesn't matter how the war between Ukraine and Russia ends because the world will have to live with the results. The economic disaster that politics has promoted in the way of sanctions and energy necessities is beyond reproach. Fourth on to the issue of nukes. It is not in anyone's interest least of all Putin's to employ nukes. In a sense Putin has made this clear in mobilizing reserves and pushing enlistments. Many balk at that and view this move as a sign of desperation. I view it as a sign of commitment same as Ukraine forcing conscription on males 18 to 60 years old. Why would Putin make such a move if the intent is to destroy Ukraine rendering the nation completely useless to both Europe and Russia? Fact is Putin sees value in Ukraine be it political or economic.
I’ve asked before and will ask again ... How is Ukraine’s mass-conscription of 18 to 60 year olds a sign of resolve, while Russia’s partial mobilization of experienced soldiers a sign of desperation ?
I just listened to a fairly significant discussion on this on a recent episode of rational security while cleaning up yard trash from the storm. I don't think anyone really knows. They made the obvious point that Putin cannot accept a modus vivendi so long as he stays in control that it's seen as a humiliation. Right now he has a lot of pressure from his right flank. And Ukrainian leadership has very strong popular support to make no concessions at all and even to try to retake Crimea. Crimea seems to be a flashpoint that the Russians would actually get behind fighting and sacrificing to maintain because of this part of the national identity. I think it's ridiculous for anyone to try to defend the Russians or Putin on a moral basis, even if they try to pretend that's not what they're doing
That is yet to be determined so we have to wait and see what the investigation reveals. I wouldn't rule out the US, Ukraine, Iran, China or a host of other nations along with climate activists groups. President Biden has on multiple occasions stated that Nord Stream 2 would not go forward and we would make sure that never happens. President Biden got his wish. Ukraine wants arms, air support and boots on the ground. It appears to me that Ukraine destroying the pipelines would result in hopes Putin would miscalculate drawing NATO into the war. Putin did not take the bait instead he has resolved himself to a ground war of attrition by activating Russian reserves and annexing parts of Ukraine. I would also note Ukraine may have miscalculated simply because NATO doesn't want to get involved with exception of arms and intelligence reports. Europe is already suffering from gas shortages and trying to conserve what they have. Moving into an armed conflict with Russia on behalf of Ukraine would only make the problem worse as they can't get enough supply to satisfy their needs. Last but not least there is the possibility we may never find out who destroyed the pipelines or what was used to do it. Of course that doesn't mean that once the investigation of the sea bed floor is underway it wouldn't stop nefarious characters from planting evidence to accuse anyone they deem fit. You can take it to the bank that Russia will not be part of any crew that investigates the explosions. They certainly will not be invited and even if they request a presence it will not happen. That alone should tell you why an investigation can not be trusted.
Why are we doing this ? Stockman Slams Washington's Pointless War On Behalf Of A Fake Nation | ZeroHedge
