The point is that the hundred of thousands of Russians fleeing the country is indicative of lack support for Putin's war with Ukraine. While a majority of Russians probably still support Putin's special military operation" thanks to his near total control of the media that percentage is declining and will probably continue to do so as ordinary Russians realize that they (or their sons, husbands, brothers, or fathers) could be involuntarily conscripted to fight in Putin's war very possibly sent to the front lines as cannon fodder with little or no training.
Not going to say it didn't happen but the numbers were minuscule and virtually none defected to the to other side (maybe a couple of dozen at the very most).
Support for the war is still pretty high in Russia I read an interesting paper about it. But the length of the conflict and the recent set backs are reducing support. The longer it goes on without clear victory the more they will lose support. Russia needs some wins on the field
But every source I’ve read indicates Russia is on the defensive, and although they are for the first time inflicting more damage on the enemy (mostly because they are on the defensive now, offense almost always harder), they are slowly losing ground especially in the south. They are having to reinforce experienced worn out units with people with no training. But they still have vastly superior equipment and amount of artillery. So it’ll be interesting to see if Ukraine can keep up this offensive.
The Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 saga continues. Sweden and Denmark are currently working together to determine the cause and extent of the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Everyone is pointing the finger at Russia without any evidence or verification at this point. While this is certainly understandable given the war between Ukraine and Russia it is not beyond nations to engage in false flag operations. Further details and evidence is needed and nations should be wary of accusations prior to undeniable evidence. In the meantime gas prices will continue to rise on a global scale knowing full well these pipelines are not coming online anytime soon. Did Putin's frogmen blow up Europe's gas supplies? Western leaders blame 'deliberate' sabotage after Nord Stream pipe from Russia ruptured off Sweden causing 3000ft-wide bubbles and sending prices spiking Western leaders have blamed ‘deliberate’ sabotage after the Nordsteam pipe from Russia suffered 'unprecedented' damage off Sweden - causing 3000ft-wide bubbles in the Baltic Sea and causing prices to spike. Explosions were heard near the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipes where gas is now leaking into the Baltic from three holes, scientists have confirmed, while chronic safety concerns have led to a five-mile exclusion zone being imposed around the affected area. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said her government believes the leaks were caused by 'deliberate actions', adding that the gas supply pipeline will be out of action for around a week. Questions yet to be answered. Who or what caused the explosions and damage to Nord Stream 1 (both pipelines) and Nord Stream 2 (1 pipeline)? No one is denying Russia has a vested interest in the pipelines just as much as Germany and European nations do. Zelensky certainly wants military aid and no doubt additional troops on the ground and air support from NATO. Putin on the other hand has made it clear he will not relent. Then of course there are any number of bad actors that could see this as an opportunity to push their own agendas. What is the extent of the damage? This is still an unknown and I suspect we will not get any underwater footage of the damage via robotic technology until the leak subsides. Reports are these were simultaneous explosions. The seismic data indicates the explosions occurred at 0003 GMT and another at 1700 GMT. The explosions are 17 hours apart. Given the shipping lanes through the Baltic why haven't we heard anything about vessels in the area? Without understanding the damage to the pipeline how can Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen make the claim the pipeline will be out of operation for around a week? The pipelines are owned by Gazprom. Does the Danish Prime Minister know something we don't? Why hasn't the US offered support concerning the investigation that is currently on going?
They offer up everything else so why not? It is obvious the US has a vested interest in both the flow of natural gas (debatable) as well as the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine. My personal opinion says we shouldn't be there in the first place but we have opened up a new can of worms and have made it clear the European nations should be subservient to US interests.
That seems generally reasonable to me, but I see one or two problems. If the U.S. is not directly attacked, many in Congress will be reluctant to sign on for a war declaration. And if Biden fails to get that, the plan somewhat unravels, and Biden has to go it alone (and risk looking like a second madman). The other problem is that China may not react favorably to being threatened, and they may not be able to get Russia to back down (what leverage do they have on Russia for something this big?). Also, China may like its odds in a 2:1 war scenario. While the U.S. is distracted with Russia, China will begin its invasion of Taiwan. So China plays for time to "influence Russia", which it is not actually trying to do, while they wait and see whether the U.S. and Russia start shooting at each other (and mass their invasion force for Taiwan). China has not been sending weapons to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine (just buying oil from them), so I would just keep them out of it and focus on Russia only. I could picture China as being pretty good at playing both sides against the middle.
As far as Congress goes, I believe the Russian use of a nuclear weapon would bring a sufficient number of legislators on to the same side. I don’t know for sure, but I would risk it if I were the President. As to China, we cannot have a situation where the U.S. and Russia exchange nuclear weapons and China is left unscathed. It might be exactly what China wants out of this, but they can’t have it. They need to understand that they helped provoke this thing, so if it goes as badly as it could, then China is going down with us. If that doesn’t motivate them the way we want, then so be it. The end result for us is the same anyway.
Russians have been screaming for Putin to get serious for months. They’re tired of having to take months and months to grind down America’s proxy. They want to bring the hammer.
What hammer? I mean.. at this point in the struggle, both sides have worn themselves down so much the hammer will actually be... the russian people themselves. I mean... hundreds of thousands on both sides could die if this becomes a protracted war of attrition.
That’s exactly what the US appears to want. No off-ramp. Fight Russia to the last dead a Ukrainian. And Ukrainians are happily obliging.
Getting the populace behind a war in Ukraine is going to be a very hard sell. The latest pole wants a diplomatic solution and a little less than half say the US should be involved in a diplomatic solution. New poll signals Americans are growing tired of support for Ukraine without diplomacy as the war against Russia drags on According to a poll conducted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Data for Progress, 57% of likely voters strongly or somewhat support the US pursuing diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine, even if it requires Ukraine making compromises with Russia. Just 32% of respondents were strongly or somewhat opposed to this. And nearly half of the respondents (47%) said they only support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine if the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy to end the war, while 41% said they support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine whether the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy or not. Now I'm curios. Expand on how China helped provoke the war between Ukraine and Russia.
