Federal Reserve to release "pain" numbers tomorrow.

Does not lose any either.

 

Bwaahaha… Rashida Tlaib triggered by Jamie Dimon…

This person is one of the reasons the pain is real. Looney toon.

 

That’s part of it, wage growth in their mind means more inflation.

Powell is on a mission.

 

Actually while that would make the markets drop heavily, raising rates will hurt the poor and middle class way more than people about to retire who likely own their homes and are slowing their spending.

 

Most poor and middle class folks don't have investments or very little beyond an IRA or 401k. This is basically a wealth tax that hits people with the most investments in stocks. Yes there is pain everywhere but the poor are still poor, so wash there. The 70 year old is the one that is watching there costs go up, home value drop and there retirement dwindle. No win situation.

 

While what you suggest may be true, not sure that middle class don’t have investments most of the middle class I know do(in addition to IRA 401k). It will make it harder for them to buy a new house. Rates strong affect home affordability. Not to mention the costs of borrowing for pretty much anything. Watch the auto market sink in particular trucks. 60-80k and the rates at 6-7%. When those demand drops on those all the people who bought high priced trucks will be upside down and let’s see if they just take them back to the dealer like people did with houses in 08-09..

FED blew it big time last year with the misguided belief that inflation was transitory, they completely ignored the demand side. But why would you think 6 trillion injected directly into the economy would have any effect

Then on top of that easy access to money.

 

LOL, damn, that's brutal.

 

It would force more of them to stay in the workforce a while longer to compensate. A workforce opening where someone younger would benefit a move to. Dominoes don’t only exist on a table top.

 

Since there are a million jobs open that's not an issue at this time.
But in that example it may affect younger workers who are more likely poor and middle class.
Now if the Fed succeeds in crushing the economy to lower inflation, that may change.

 

I’m talking about good paying jobs with benefits that take educated people to fill. Not the fast food restaurant etc. type jobs.

 

You’re misguided. It’s not demand driven. I could show you all kinds of data that units of everything are down.

Costs are up cuz supply is down and labor is scarce. Raising interest rates won’t help.

 

Not sure that I agree with this, but I don’t think that they have raised the rates enough yet to curb inflation. I believe that they have stopped the growth in the inflation rate, but not started reducing it yet. What do you think based on your studies and analyses?

 

Making a statement like that eliminates your credibility to call anyone misguided. I’ve seen that “data” that you have posted to prove your point. I have found much of it to be either narrowly focused, incomplete, or slanted. To not acknowledge stimulated demand over the past 24 months is ludicrous. Now I will agree with you that we are going to see reduced demand.

 

Where is the demand? In what broad sectors are we seeing that the unit demand is up? Cars? TVs? Travel? Plane trips? Dining out? Movies? Netflix? Disney visitors? Clothing? Shoes? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. There isn’t more demand. I challenge you to show me what industry is producing and selling more than 2019 in units. Prices are higher but unit demand isn’t up. It’s not demand driven.

And no…. It’s not the stimulus. We are years removed from the stimulus.

 

I am not a macro economist, but my guess is that the logic is that the real rate of interest is neg until int rates > inflation & inflation won't come down until real rates are positive. My opinion is that real rates going up regardless of what side of 0 they are on should reduce inflation.

 

Got an Extra $11,500? You’ll Need It to Keep Up With 2022 Prices - NerdWallet

Even if inflation slows in coming months, Americans will have to spend thousands more in 2022.

 

So the extra 6 trillion had nothing to do with this…?
many economists disagree with that.
I recall discussing this in December and if i’m not mistaken you said it was all supply and that would resolve quickly (I may be wrong in my memory as there were some long detailed discussions and it’s been a while).

Not saying the Fed is almighty but they have set out to destroy demand, that’s what rate hikes do.

Old saying don’t fight the fed.

 

The last stimulus bill was just passed about a year ago. Do you think the Gov just sends the big money out immediately?
Sure the checks go out quick but the real money is just getting going..

 

right now you are guaranteed to lose.

 

The hope was supply chain issues would be resolved by now. And the pressure has certainly eased. But most manufacturers are still seeing supply chain issues. This is true in some key industries, such as cars. Ford announced a restructuring after lower expectations due to supply chain issues, and Toyota just announced similar supply issues. Construction is still seeing supply issues as well. We're still seeing food shortages as well, due to the war in Ukraine, and continued issues with world-wide supply chain issues.

This isn't to say the stimulus payments had no effect on inflation. But with the inflation, most of the stimulus monies have been long spent, and prices are still up. It's a supply issue.

Not much the Fed can do to combat inflation but raise rates and slow demand down.