No one said this war was all rainbows and unicorns. Putin has inflicted on Ukraine a terrible, brutal, particularly cruel affair that puts the whole world at risk. A quick Russian collapse would be nice, but it is not realistic. And we all must be prepared to sacrifice unfortunately. How long this goes on is ultimately up to the Russian people and no else. Make no mistake, though. Russian collapse may not occur quickly and it may not occur without terrible consequences for the work, but it is inevitable, one way or another. This will not end with Ukraine subjugated.
Ultimately Russia will get out at some level or entirely. Either the whole ball of wax or maybe a negotiated settlement (which seems unlikely at this point). I don’t know how long it will take. We got out of Iraq and Afghanistan (isn’t quite the same but the point remains). As long as Ukrainians don’t want them there it will be painful for the Russians.
I think a russian reorganization is more likely than a collapse. Cancer or bullet may hasten the timeline. A cadre of oligarchs will form a power base and run it afterwards with a goal to maximize their wealth. That will require reunification with the west. Ukraine needs to made whole in border and security and reconstruction for that to happen. Jmo.
I can certainly agree with most of what you have written. What is inevitable is what is at question and one that remains to be determined.
It's going to be painful on both sides of this war as well as the global economies of those that stand by while this plays out.
Do you have a financial stake that leads you to support the assumption that Putin/Russia wins the long game? I didn't research all of your links but the overwhelming number of them, from all different countries, were consistently linked to russian interests. Im trying to understand what is leaving you blind to the obvious. Russia will not win the long game here, the west isn't going to let this slide.
When people initiate wars it causes disruption. We don’t just sit there and shrug because we are worried about a couple of GDP points. Plus if it isn’t checked it doesn’t stop. It would then be another Eastern European country, and China with Taiwan. If this were Trump or any other Republican doing this you would be applauding.
I wonder how long a pro western troll would be allowed on a Russian message board. Rhetorical question as we know the answer to that one. Yet we are the oppressors and aggressors.
None what so ever. As to the broader picture who would ever thought Germany would nationalize an oil company. I can't speak for the company but it appears to me if they were dire straits prior to this what makes anyone believe a nationalized company will fair any better? (Venezuela comes readily to mind.) If anything what will do is make the government responsible for have and have not among the populace and businesses. Germany nationalises gas giant amid energy crisis The deal will see the German government take on a 98.5% stake in the firm at a cost of €8.5bn (£7.4bn). Germany is Europe's biggest importer of Russian gas, and has been particularly squeezed as Russia has reduced supplies in recent months. ................... Uniper, which operates gas, coal, and hydro plants across Europe and is currently controlled by Finnish state-owned energy company Fortum, is the biggest buyer of Russian gas in Germany. Fortum said Uniper had accumulated close to €8.5bn (£7.4bn) in gas-related losses "and cannot continue to fulfil its role as a critical provider of security of supply as a privately-owned company".
Sure we do. There are any number of wars in Africa and South America that we shrug our shoulders about. We only take notice when our ox is getting gored or we have specific interests in the region. Other than that the US couldn't care less with exception of paying lip service to the destruction.
More and more I’m thinking the US is in for a quick collapse and that Americans will yearn for the day when its biggest enemy were buffalo horn-wearing crazies taking selfies with Capitol guards.
Think Government Motors (2008 GM). I view this more as a too big (critical) to fail bail-out. Time will tell, but this looks like a drastic times /. drastic measures move from my viewpoint. Always good to be wary of nationalising economies, though.
Nor would I dispute your view, however the archeological evidence neither proves nor disproves the point. Like you, and given recorded history, I doubt our earliest ancestors were not predisposed to combat and certainly probably did not turn the other cheek, its just that archeology has plenty of evidence for our "fighting ways" a little later in the history of human collectivized society and much less so than at the dawn of it.
This sir, is the defining facts of the situation and makes everything else hot air, at least IMO. The Putin worshipper cherry picks facts, so he is correct at a micro level but the real truth lies at the Macrolevel. Entire Ukranian towns and cities are being destroyed, not so Russia, ergo the Putin lovers arguments hold little water.
I agree it is drastic times and drastic measures. The noose tightens and governments will do what they deem as appropriate. I would add concerning GM that money comes from the public in the form of taxes. Germany will be no different not only are they now responsible for gas supplies they are also responsible for the price controls they hope to achieve.
