War in Ukraine

Hopefully this is true.

President Putin Suffering From 'Rapidly Progressing Cancer,' On Verge Of Losing Sight: Report (msn.com)

A new report indicates that an anonymous Russian intelligence officer claims that President Vladimir Putin is on the verge of losing his eyesight and has a short lifespan as his health condition deteriorates further.

“We are told he is suffering from headaches and when he appears on TV he needs pieces of paper with everything written in huge letters to read what he’s going to say. They are so big each page can only hold a couple of sentences. His eyesight is seriously worsening,” the spy told the news outlet.

The report further pointed out that the Russian president's health is in such a bad state that his limbs are 'shaking uncontrollably.'

 

As much as the world deserves to be rid of that war criminal, the next man up may be just as bad or worse. That said, hopefully it would be an opportunity to bring this insane war to an end.

 

Could the next guy be even worse than Putin? No idea. I’ll risk it. I’ll let the Russian mob that storms the Kremlin sort that part out for me.

 

It’s strange coming back to this thread and seeing such obvious pro Russian support.

this war Putin is fighting kind of takes me back to classical history a bit.

For those of you who maybe don’t know, after defeating the Persians in the 400s bc the Athenians formed a powerful democracy, the first of its kind, based on the strength of a big wall built around Athens and a powerful Navy. The wall was meant to deter the Spartans, the strongest land army in Greece after the Persian wars, and would allow them to hold out essentially forever based on resupply from their vastly superior navy. However, the problem with a wall-based strategy like that, is they would have to be willing to basically watch all of the wealth of Attica burn, if Sparta ever attacked, from the safety of their walls. That's the problem with wall-based strategies. You have to be willing to watch land burn on the other side of the wall. The US has used a strong Navy and a wall-based approach against Russia dating back to the cold-war (with some NOTABLE excpetions), and to a certain extent they have been doing it with Russia and China both, even now. The current lines in the sand being Taiwan, south Korea, and Nato. The US has routinely allowed other things to burn, if it didn't serve their strategic interests, which is why the 2nd war in Iraq was strategically such a dumb waste of resources that didn't align with their previous strategy, and why the nation building in Afghanistan was so foolish. They've certainly allowed a lot of other countries, including Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, Nepal, etc. all to burn without much complaint in modern times.

So now the US is trying to continue their wall-based strategy, and trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia because it doesn't serve anyone's interests for direct confrontation. Very similar to Athens and Sparta, any direct non-proxy war between the two would be devastating for the whole world, much like the Peloponnesian war was devastating for Greece, and ultimately ended Greek dominance in the world. In old Greece, Athens got all bent out of shape about a small city state called Megara, and basically put sanctions on them, which ultimately caused Corinth and others to ask the Spartans to go to war with Athens, and Sparta eventually agreed and all hell broke loose (in a nutshell, much more complicated). In the end, some historians have suggested that the Megarian decree was Athens making a mountain out of a mole hill, and they should have backed off to prevent a broader war.

Is the Ukraine war similar to Megara in this example? Is Nato the Delian league? Is the western world making a mistake investing so much in this war that Russia now has no choice but to escalate or withdraw? Or instead did Russia make the mistake, much like the Athenians of old, trying to take Syracuse (which was on Sicily) which led to the destruction of their fleets and ultimate loss to Sparta. I can't tell.

But what is certain, is that old democratic Athens, and oligarchic Sparta didn't like each other, because they had different values, and it was ultimately felt that nothing would solve that but war. Are Russia, China, and the western world destined to fight this out because of their different values? I worry this is another one of those cases of history getting ready to repeat itself, and Ukraine may be the match. I know we all have world war 2 as a more recent lesson to look back on about not giving in to totalitarians... and what is happening in Ukraine is horrible, but maybe it's time to just stand at the wall and watch it burn, because any escalation on the part of the west, will just lead to a repeat of history.

just food for thought, because my original take on this was that the US should have been more aggressive, but maybe it's time just to retreat to the old battle lines and let it go.

 

Remind me how that wall-based strategy worked out for Athens in the end?

 

Well... they lost. But it's because they didn't actually stick to their strategy. They invited war, and then fought some really foolish battles far from home, and ultimately depleted their armed forces to the point that Sparta was able to gain some allies and win some key naval battles and it was all over. Once Athens weakened themselves some old enemies jumped into the war, namely persia, and financed a huge navy for Sparta to eventually have the opportunity to win.

I just think it's an interesting historical similarity.

And I'm not saying I know the answer here, but if the US has been using this "wall-based" strategy for a long time. And the few times they have broken their own rules, and jumped the wall and started fighting, we have Korea, Vietnam, and then more recently and somewhat unrelated we have had long, drawn-out engagements that serve almost no real purpose long-term against Iraq and Afghanistan. There may be some lessons here to consider.

Again, I think there are more modern stories that tell us avoiding conflict against totalitarian regimes and appeasement is not a good answer, but sometimes I think we are so blinded by WW2 that we forget to look back even further at what history has taught us. And essentially the first great democracy grew too big and opulent, people hated them for it, and then they started acting superior to the rest of the world and an oligarchy took them down. I mean... it shares some interesting intersections with where we are now. Consider that fighting over an island that meant nothing to Athens, a long way away at Syracuse, was the final decision that doomed them. Could the Ukraine situation ultimately lead to a larger conflict that leads the US to fighting over an island thousands of miles away that doesn't really matter? IDK. Interesting times. But the longer this carries on in Ukraine and the more it escalates the more chance that the US and its allies are drawn into a larger conflict with Russia and those that would stand in opposition to western hegemony. And I think you would find that contingent would grow in strength significantly at the first sign of cracks or weakness in the western alliance, very similar to what happened in Greece.

Of course, Athens didn't have nukes.

Anyways - just thinking out loud - thought it was an interesting comparison.

 

Either it is true, which is great, or it is effective disinformation aimed at making him look helpless and weak and undermining his power. If Russian troll farms can wreak havoc on our elections and cause 1/3 of our population to go batshit crazy, there is no reason we can’t play the same game.

 

No, it is an interesting comparison. Thucydides is on my list of near-future reading. Fortunately, Russia represents more of a Persian than a Spartan adversary, in several ways. And I prefer that outcome, obviously.

 

I’d say it’s closer to 20% than 1/3rd, but remember about half of that is the crazies on the far left, not just the crazies on the far right. They have to agitate both ends for the chaos to work.

 

really hope you’re right about that and this Russian fight against Ukraine is xerxes generals shitting themselves at plataea

 

We keep hearing these narratives over and over yet events keep going in the opposite direction. When I hear updates about Ukraines successes in the media, they are always qualified with Russia has a lot of resources and this will probably be a long slog. What we don’t know if the Russians will have to patience with Putin long term if things keep going badly. Ultimately Afghanistan was a huge drain on the Soviet Union, in terms of resources and overall confidence. Ukraine has the possibility of being a lot worse. It is probably becoming obvious to them that they can’t win in a conventional sense. As long as they are there, they are sitting ducks. They can roll in another 100,000 Russians, if they can find them, and even if they advance, as long as they are there they are sitting ducks. As this becomes obvious to Russian leaders, soldiers, and the general populace it becomes demoralizing.

The sanctions haven’t played out exactly as people predicted. The economic pain was not as great as some predicted, but at the same time, we don’t really know because we are relying on their propagandized information.


Opinion | Who’s Embargoing Whom?

The sanctions against Russia selling things hasn’t worked that well. The sanctions from Russia buying things has worked better than expected - their inability to get chips and other parts has crippled their war effort.

I keep hearing about how Europe is going to cave to economic pressure, but that’s not what seems to be happening. With Russia cutting off gas this winter will be difficult for Europe, but they are preparing and adapting and are generally ahead of schedule with gas storage.

Ultimately you have to decide, is Russias inflexible archaic economy or is the rest of the global economy going to best be able to adapt to the stresses.

We didn’t start this. But we had to stand up to Putin. We have economic and political interests in Europe, and if we had just caved in Ukraine that would have sent a clear signal to China via Taiwan. Of course I am quite sure that all of those on the right criticizing our Ukraine support would have been yelling “appeasement!!” Just as they did when Obama decided not to attack Russia backed Syria after Syria used chemical weapons.

Yes there are risks in our support, but the eventual risks would have been far higher if we had just succumbed to Putins adventures and sent a signal to all the worlds autocrats that it is open season for territorial conquest.

 

Why must you twist words? It's not a hypothetical it is a fact of war and all of the ugliness that goes with it. I'm not saying you have to accept the atrocities and I'm not saying such atrocities should be swept under the rug and not be prosecuted. Somehow you missed that point.

 

Yes there is propaganda on both side of the war that is not in dispute. What is in dispute is who will blink first.

From Russia's perspective they have the upper hand with regards to natural resources (oil, natural gas, rare earth materials).

Ask yourself these questions. Do you believe Russia will revert to global trade in the same manner prior to the war if they were to pull out of Ukraine today? Do you think Europe could force Russia to open Nord Stream I and II if the war ended tomorrow? Do you think Ukraine could rebuild their economy and trading status in short order? To all of these I say no.

 

Agree all of those answer no. I’m not sure what the point of that is. Russia got themselves into this mess, and I don’t see a way for them to get out. I get the feeling Putin is alienating himself, now even inside of his own country. He has no supporters internationally now. This is his own doing. The world can survive without Russia. Theoretically Russia can survive on its own and Russia could become another North Korea but I don’t see Russians as having the patience for that level of regression. While this scenario presents some obvious dangers, the ultimate humiliating failure of it sends a useful message to other such autocrats who don’t stay in their lanes.

 

Russia was never going to get out. That point should have been clear from the onset. Putin may have no supporters internationally with regards to the war save a handful of nations that continue to back Russia and continue to trade with Russia.

Concerning international support the Ukrainian government continues to receive supplies and economic support from a core of nations, the bulk of it coming from the US. In a nut shell the remaining nations have done little more than complain without offering any resolutions.

 

Do you think EU or the west will drop sanctions before Russia pulls out of Ukraine or even when if Russia war crimes and destruction aren't mitigated for? You seem to have it all backwards comrade. Russia needs the west much more than the west needs Russia

 

Civilians in Donetsk City on the phone ...

 

Interesting historical parallels Slayer.

My personal take is the latest Russian action is nothing more than a continuation
of human activity that defines civilization since 10,000 BC.

We are a violent, unhinged, selfish species that thrives on greed, environmental explotation and conflict.

We are tribal.

My current definition of which "tribe" is bad and "worse" in the current conflict is NATO and the West is a "less bad" tribe than Eastern Block tribes.

Every aspect of our tribal lives, East or West, is directed, manipulated, controlled
and decided by the chieftains (Kings, Emperors, Czars, Presidents) and their political lackeys and police, gestopo, chekas or whatever you call them.

Their was some hope after WW2 that human civilization might emerge from typical patterns after half a century of industrialized mass murder. But the events post 45 clearly show that our tribalism takes precedent over peace and rational behavior.

Technology, religon, entertainment, wealth acquisition, sports (Roman's were big on sports in big amphitheaters you know),
music, literature, ........ none of that changes the essence of our being.

I happen to support Ukraine and the West simply because I believe their cause is more just and I belive Putin to be in the mold of the cruelest czars or Roman Emperor's.