Rents Hit Historic New High; Millions to be Evicted

Read, Trump will release his how to combat inflation report after he releases his tax returns and comprehensive health care plan!

Trump was never POTUS during a post-pandemic recovery. Trump caused some of the inflation with his "easy to win" trade wars. Think he would have done better than Biden? That's truly laughable. Trump has no plan. It's all an empty binder. Just like his healthcare plan.

Trump got lucky he inherited a great economy from Obama. All Trump had to do was not mess it up.

 

Rent prices in the US have been steadily increasing since the 1940's, and we are coming off a 5-7 year urban apartment building boom like never seen before since pre WW2. More construction isn't likely to lead to rental decreases over time, maybe a little in the short run (or more likely, some concessions off the face rate) but where on this graph have rents ever come down on average the past century?

From the article:

• YoY rent changes have not fallen to a negative rate since 1934.

Average Rent by Year [1940-2022]: Historical Rental Rates

2022 Will Be a Record Year for Apartment Construction | RP Analytics

Apartment rent increases in the US have well outpaced inflation since the GFC.

Meanwhile Goldman predicted earlier today that inflation in the UK could hit 22% next year. Damn that Biden.

UK Inflation Could Top 22% Next Year, Warns Goldman Sachs

 

You literally have no idea how supply and demand works. Not surprising.

 

Inflation is a symptom not the cause.

Kind of like how morons who watch whacko YT videos aren't dumb because of the videos--they are dumb because their minds stopped evolving after 4th grade.

 

I mean but thats the line? These are part of our retirement plan in 20 years. This is just like an investment in a stock. Why should I be punished if I invest different than someone else. Again most Airbnb's are not in areas that will have an impact on the housing crisis.

 

Link? That's certainly not the case in my state.

 

I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Hawaii has strict limitations (and penalties) that have survived it. Even certain suburbs of Orlando of all places prohibit short term rentals.

You’re working hard to make it seem like short term rentals aren’t a significant factor, maybe due to the field in which you work, but they undeniably affect housing affordability and availability (it doesn’t matter if it’s the exact type of unit/house that would be rented).

There are numerous academic studies that show these effects on communities. A study done in Los Angeles showed that a 10% increase in short-term rental listings lead to a 0.42% increase in rents and a 0.76% increase in house prices. Overall, the short-term rental industry has grown by 800% since 2011. Therefore, these studies conclude that if a 10% increase in the number of short-term rental listings led to a 0.42% increase in rents, the actual 800% STR increase since 2011 would be responsible for a 33.6% rent increase over that same period.​

A Harvard Law & Policy Review article similarly found that STRs increase rents, incentivize hotelization and reduce the affordable housing stock. This scholarly journal details how short-term rentals increase rents in neighborhoods with a high density of STR listings, and how they lead to a citywide reduction in affordable housing. The article also concluded that Short-Term Rentals are also correlated with gentrification in adjacent neighborhoods. They reduce integration by displacing lower-income tenants, exacerbate racial and socioeconomic inequality, and result in inequitable housing in the community.
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https://mccmeetingspublic.blob.core...ment-001-ca0b4a2bb790441a93a1b0a496f3cdbf.pdf

 

I'm not against STR of an inlaw suite, or garage apartment, or a guest house on property. I can also get on board with STRing ones vacation home, should they be so lucky.

It's the buying of property(ies) for the purpose of STR that Im against. I'm also not insinuating that it's the cause of the housing crisis, but it does contribute.

 

You really don't see it.

 

Generally speaking, large cities aren’t good spots to buy a STR for the reasons listed above. The cities have been shutting it down to keep rent affordable for working class folk.
OTOH, vacation rentals in smaller towns known for its seasonal type vacations(waterfront, mountains), think Gatlinburg, TN, do very well for short term rentals. In fact, pigeon forge and Gatlinburg have made STR very welcoming which has attracted both investors and visitors.

 

I said this months ago. They can keep raising interest rates, but supply, in all its various forms is the underlying issue, and that can’t be fixed by rate hikes, short of completely stifling demand.

 

I don't see any basis for this claim. I would say most Airbnb's are in large cities. And most large cities have an affordable housing problem.

 

That may have been true, but the trend is cities are changing laws to stifle STR. Most STRs are found in vacation areas. Bank on it.

 

What is “it”?

 

Supply isn't an issue. The US population did not increase 20% from 2019 to 2022. The problem is inflation and the switch from homes being a primary residence to an investment. There are a few studies,.I can't remember if it was from 2020 or 2021 but the study looked at cities in the state of Florida and it found that some were up to 40% vacant. Now you can point to vacation homes, Airbnb, foreign investments, whatever. Building more homes won't solve the problem if everyone starts using property as stocks and investments. There needs to be some reform here or there is going to be serious problems.

 

supply is an issue and has been for a decade. We still haven’t caught up from the Great Recession, and aren’t even close.w

the Us has about 660k Airbnb homes, so even if you take those out, we are still millions short.



the other thing not talked about in this thread, is that home builders are skewing towards upper middle and upper class markets/homes, to maximize profits. So first time buyers are being shut out, which puts further demand on rentals.

 

The inflation is largely due pumping money into the economy due to COVID-19. PPP loans, lockdowns, interest rate cuts all happened under Trump and was inherited by Biden. You cannot ignore that it was the primary cause. Trump Administration was behind what you blame Biden for.

 

Here are some ideas. Open to others.

1. Work visas for construction workers to add to the labor pool. Labor shortages are stifling building
OK, millions crossing the border. I do not know if they are paying taxes.
2. Rezoning and tax incentives to develop housing out of retail space openings that sit idle in American urban areas.
Give aways.
3. Subsidized rates for construction loans to minimize interest rate hike impacts.
Tax people more.
4. Ease lending restrictions on condos.
Force your will.

 

I really doubt this. In cities like NYC (and Austin, where I live) there are tons of STRs and they have an impact on long term rental prices and house prices.

Here's an article about NYC:

New York Now Has More Airbnb Listings Than Apartments for Rent.

 

Again, Supply isnt the problem. If it were a simple supply and demand problem, it would have resolved itself with construction after a decade of rising real estate prices after the great recession. I agree the home builders have shifted to upper class markets, mainly due to wage suppression, wealth destruction of the middle and lower class, and lending regulations after the great recession.