Interesting piece on the sanctions impact on the specialized mega Turbine power generating industry. Big impact. Very harmful. The only reason the impact has not been more obvious is the reduction in energy demand due to overall reduced economic activity The key point of this story is that after 30 years of reform Russia ends up standing still in a key branch of industry. The lights won’t go out, but what those lights will continue to illuminate will be a technologically backward sector. The lack of advanced gas turbines will affect not only power generation, but also other applications, such as the large gas turbines needed for LNG projects and turbines needed for wind generation. It will take Russia a decade or more to catch up, by which time world gas-turbine technology will have moved on the next level of efficiency. But this result is only partly due to the Western sanctions. As in other sectors of Russian industry, it is also due to two other factors—the inherited weakness of the Russian engineering sector (a legacy of the Soviet collapse and the chaos of the 1990s), plus the effect of misguided policies. The Russian government in the mid-2000s launched into a rushed modernization program, resulting in an extreme reliance on foreign technology, which in turn made the power sector vulnerable once the Western suppliers and partners withdrew. Then, starting in the mid-2010s, an overhasty reaction in the opposite direction, mandating all-Russian content, has locked the power sector into continued dependence on the backward Russian models. The result will be a “modernization” that will be anything but modern. But this is very far from a “collapse of the Russian economy,” as some studies of the impact of sanctions have claimed. That is because, at the same time, demand for electricity in the Russian economy is declining, and is likely to continue doing so for another decade. Moreover, natural gas will remain abundant and cheap, as declining gas exports are re-allocated to the domestic economy, especially the power sector. Thus the gas-fired generating sector will remain backward and inefficient, but it will be adequate to supply a diminished Russian economy. Putin’s “turbine problem” turns out to be manageable—Putin-style. Vlad--What's Your Problem with Gas Turbines?
To state Russia is behind the curve on CCGT is a bit of a stretch to say the least. They have these power plants in operation and are upgrading existing power plants to newer technology. A quick search on CCGT power plants will show CCGT has been around for years and China is no slouch about building them either. Kazan 1 CCGT Power Plant, Russia Urengoyskaya CCGT Power Plant, Russia GE wins gas turbine contract for 858MW CCGT power plant in Russia
I have no subject matter expertise but I thought the piece did explain why their plants are not the equivalent of the western plants and cannot be maintained to the same standard under sanctions. The author does seem to have a lot of subject matter expertise Thane Gustafson, a professor at Georgetown University, is the author and co-author of eight books on Russian affairs, including most recently Wheel of Fortune: the Battle for Oil and Power in Russia (2012), The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe (2020), and Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change (2021), all with Harvard University Press.
What makes you one think if these plants were built years ago and are in operation today that the Russians, Chinese, etc... are not capable of maintaining them. Technology today is highly diverse and to suggest that others are not capable or are not educated enough to undrstand, build and maintain these facilities is nonsense. Sounds like the height of arrogance to me.
I am choosing to rely on the author's expertise. I realize that's a foreign concept to those from one ideological end of the spectrum. Knowledge and expertise are suspect from that point of view. Not to me. And no I don't think that the expertise is beyond the Russian mind. Not at all. But I also think systems and incentives matter. If not, the Soviet Union would have been an economic superpower.
It is getting heated more since Ukraine forces have started to attack Russian bases. What Putin does from now on will give us an idea of how far he will go. What many fear are the hammers he has yet to start using - limited tactical nukes, Satan missiles, his nuclear torpedos, etc. That's the big question, will he resort to using Russia's nuclear stockpiles?
tick tick tick 20k troops stranded with no support, no way out. The war is really starting to hit home as body bags and crippled soldiers return home to the out provinces that already didn't care much for Putin and the oligarchs continue to suffer as industry is collapsing under the weight of the sanctions Putin’s on the brink (msn.com) Russia’s elites already know this. As the body bags, wounded and discharged soldiers return to Russia, the Russian people are beginning to comprehend it as well. All of which increases Putin’s domestic political vulnerability — and puts him under growing pressure to find some way to declare victory. As a result, Russia’s president has continued to double down on his campaign of aggression. Following its failure to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian territories, the Kremlin retooled its strategic objectives, narrowing them to the more limited aim of fully conquering the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, both of which had been partially occupied since 2014. At great human cost, some gains have been made toward that goal. Overall, however, Russia’s revamped offensive can be classified as a strategic failure, as more and more Russians die to temporarily hold non-strategic territory. This failure, in turn, has caused other problems. The troops used for cannon fodder in the Kremlin’s campaign have been disproportionally not ethnically Russian — something that has caused a souring of troop morale and stoked tensions between ethnically Russian troops and those from places like Buryatia (traditionally Buddhist) and Dagestan (mostly Muslim). Some soldiers are now refusing to fight, and discontent among their families presents a growing problem for Russia’s government. But what is perhaps Putin’s most dangerous “bad bet” is now unfolding. With the destruction of the bridges necessary to resupply and/or reinforce them, the estimated 20,000 Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River are trapped, effectively surrounded by Ukrainian forces without the capability to break out or to fight for any extended period of time. Putin did not reposition these troops when he had the chance to do so, effectively leaving them stranded. As a result, some senior commanders have deserted across the river, damaging Russian troop morale in Kherson and elsewhere. All this makes Putin’s internal situation worse, as more and more members of Russia’s power ministries focus on his ongoing — and disastrous — mistakes. Eventually, a critical mass of Russia’s decision-making elites (those with guns or money) will conclude that the country needs to cut its losses by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, because doing so would be a precondition for the removal of Western sanctions and allowing Russia to rebuild its army and economy.
Thanks G8tr - Always appreciate your contributions! OK - While I tend to view "Western" reports with a wee bit of skepticism, it certainly appears from my perspective that the Ukrainian invasion has been an unmitigated disaster for Czar Putin. The Ukrainian women were not throwing flowers and passing out Vodka to the Russian invaders at the start which the Czar apparantly thought would happen. The Russian military (The conventional military) has been exposed as being poorly led and rather incompetent. Economic sanctions, while for me, I am a bit uncertain as to their "actual" effect, certainly must be creating stresses among the civilian populace. It also seems that Western Europe is rapidly "weaning off" the Russian energy "tit" and that MUST BE bad news for the "leader of the people". Having said all that, Russian leaders have a long history of killing MASSES of their own people, spinning it as JUST and somehow surviving the blow back - through state sponsered terror and control typically. But this is an unjust conflict, IMO, the Russian boys are not defending their home territory from Nazi barbarians, THEY are the aggressors. On the down side, the CZAR seems to be drumming up support with other totalitarian regimes, of which China, undoubtedly is of primary concern to the "West". Myself, I do not see Xi as wanting to get into a "shooting contest" with the WEST despite what that old Nazi Kissinger is spouting. What does China have to gain by doing that? Cutting off their nose to spite their face?? Obviously the great concern is an escalation to tactical, or worse, long range nuclear weapons. It seems to me that Mr. Putin, would be well served to try to hold on to a couple of the Ukranian Eastern provinces, and call it a day............. but Mr. Zelenski may have something to say about that.
Economic sanctions are crippling their economy. No airplane replacement parts, no chips for production of anything (they import 100% of their chips), massive loss of income from decreased exports.
I agree but since when did Russian leaders give a s*!t about anyone but themselves? They have the Czarist lifestyle, munching on Caviar..........let the people suffer, it makes them HARD like IRON! I hope someone with a brain bust a few caps in old Pukin......
British special forces helping Ukraine take the fight to Russia in a big way. These attacks within Russian controlled territory are crippling them which leaves all those non ethnically Russian troops exposed. Continued losses will lead to further discontent and unrest in the outlying regions that are supplying the casualties for Putin's meatgrinder Guided by British special forces, Ukraine is escalating the 'deep battlespace' fight against Russia (msn.com) We've seen an arms depot explode at Timonovo in the Russian oblast of Belgorod. This area serves as a key logistics hub for Russian operations in northern and eastern Ukraine. In addition, there are multiple reports of explosions near the Russian airfield in Stary Oskol. Sixty miles from the Ukrainian border, Stary Oksol is just 55 miles from Voronezh, the headquarters of a major command of Russia's Western Military District. There have also been explosions around the Kherson dam, located at the southern juncture of the Dnieper river. Ukrainian forces are slowly moving to retake Kherson. Reports of explosions across the Crimean Peninsula also abounded on Thursday, though these may be the result of Russian air defense activity. Yet, in the context of recent Ukrainian strikes against a major Russian naval aviation base in Crimea and explosions over the past three months at numerous military sites deep inside Russian territory, we can be confident that the Ukrainian forces are responsible for at least some of Thursday's incidents. This activity represents a concerted effort to degrade Russian command and logistics in what is known in military parlance as the "deep battlespace." As I noted in March, deep battlespace operations against Russian forces are particularly valuable due to the systemic weaknesses in Russian command and control, concealment, security, and logistics. Unable or unwilling to conduct effective perimeter security operations or to conceal the location and type of operations they are conducting, Russian forces have made themselves vulnerable to surprise attacks far behind their front lines. NATO will also have learned from this Russian weakness. Still, three Western government sources tell me that Ukraine's deep battlespace effort owes especial thanks to Britain — specifically to British strike and reconnaissance special forces personnel inside Ukraine. This UK deployment was originally supervised by the now-retired head of the British Army, Gen. Mark Carleton-Smith, a former head of the U.K. Special Forces command who is deeply respected by the Army's combat infantry cadres. I am told that this military advisory effort is being supervised by the United Kingdom's foreign intelligence agency, the Secret Intelligence Service, also known as MI6. While other Western nations also have a special operations forces presence inside Ukraine (to include CIA paramilitary and operations officers), Britain has adopted a particularly forward-leaning approach to supporting Ukraine. This reflects a personal and professional assessment by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the U.K. national security establishment in favor of highly active support for Ukraine. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the heavy favorite to replace Johnson as prime minister on Sept. 6, appears set to continue this effort.
more data from the attack on the airbase and just how much it crippled the abilities of their Black Sea air fleet Explosions at a Russian base knocked out over half the Black Sea fleet's combat jets, crippling its warfighting ability, Western officials and intelligence say (msn.com) Recent explosions widely considered to have been a Ukrainian attack at a Russian base in occupied Crimea knocked out over half of the Russian Black Sea fleet's combat jets, Western officials have revealed to the media Friday. Multiple blasts on August 9 at Saki Air Base — situated well-behind the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine — caused widespread damage, destroying several Russian warplanes and buildings. According to multiple reports from Reuters and others, Western officials said Friday that the damage has sidelined over half of Russia's Black Sea fleet's naval aviation jets, greatly hamstringing the combat capability of Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces in the area. Included in the damage are an unspecified number of both Russian Su-24 and Su-30 jets, which have been in use by the country's air force for decades. There have been conflicting reports over how many aircraft were destroyed exactly, though satellite imagery from last week shows as many as 13 damaged and destroyed jets.
Seen this one yet? So a goodly number of Russian soldiers have gotten deathly ill from botulism. This could either be 1. Biological attack from the Ukrainians; or 2. The impressive Russian supply chain has been feeding its troops spoiled food. Naturally, the Kremlin is going with scenario #1. I really hope this is not, like, the Russian pretext for going nuclear. I would say that a junior high student could come up with something better, but then again it still isn’t as dumb as their “denazifying Ukraine” shtick. Russia accuses Kyiv of poisoning some of its soldiers in Ukraine
Xi has plenty to gain, provided Taiwan willingly bends over for Chinese occupation and the West looks the other way … the way it was supposed to happen with Russia and Ukraine. As to calling Kissinger a Nazi, that’s a really strange thing to write. What are you trying to say?
Darya Dugina: Car bomb kills daughter of 'spiritual guide' to Putin's Ukraine invasion - Russian media - CNN
Some oligarch or general isn't happy with this guy. It's her father's car," Krasnov told TASS. "Dasha (Darya) drives another car, but she drove his car today, and Alexander went separately," Andrei Krasnov, head of the Russky Gorizont (Russian Horizon) social movement and a personal acquaintance of Dugina's family, told TASS.
Yeah, sounds like the bomb was meant for him. Both he and his daughter are/were leading Russian propagandists. Could have been someone with ties to Ukraine, but the financial hurt being out in Russia may be leading their wealthy class to not support the war.
Sounds like the father may have sacrificed the daughter to further the cause, because he wasn't in his own car and she wasn't in her own car. Now that's commitment. Or maybe a little family feud. We'll never know.
