I safely infer that you did not vote for (since no one has) strategic withdrawal from out of the Russian and Chinese intended spheres of influence. So I assume you are not willing to pay any price for that peace we all want. Where would you say that red line is for you? Presently, we are providing Ukraine (and Taiwan) with a plethora of weapons, and many Russians who otherwise would not be are dead now. I don’t personally consider that instigatory, since Russia started this, but I’ll bet Russia does. Should be stop, do less, do more?
Really appreciate this thread. Thanks. Very thought provoking. Our approach historically to communism was a combination of 3 and 4. Sometimes containment and sometimes initiative, but initiative was usually against proxies. Today, we may not he able to engine in containment, because climate change (drought in Europe) May make the availability of Ukrainian farm products even more important. And the supply chain interruptions from COVID and other factors complicate our choices. We are too dependent on China and they on us for to undertake a full confrontational initiative. At least for now. We are beginning to move on from that dependence (the CHiP bill) but this is going to take time.
Russia isn't in a position militarily or economically to stop us from doing much of anything. The issue is how far can we push them before they start deploying their nuclear deterrent. I tend to doubt they would do so unless we started a full-scale invasion of Russia proper. But as the consequences of being wrong is total world annihilation, and cornered animals are unpredictable and illogical, we have to proceed cautiously. China is a different story IMO. It seems very unlikely that the world's oldest civilization, famous for their long-term thinking, is going to usher in armageddon except as an absolute last resort. That gives us more clearance to engage them militarily if they invade Taiwan or another neighbor. The downside risk there being that they actually have a carrier-killing hypersonic missile. Losing a capital ship to China would usher in a whole new world in the Pacific. Plus we have enormous economic entanglements, to the point that halting trade with them could cripple our economy. So we'll likely do everything we can to avoid a direct confrontation.
Yes. The thoughts have been swirling around for some time, but I was finally able to punch them out during a flight to Cabo for family vacation.
I, too, want Russia to bleed politically and economically, but not for as long as possible, only for as long as it takes for Putin’s government to fall. I worry about the effect this war has on our allies if it extends into winter, which it looks like it will. And while I want progressively increased domestic political resistance in Russia, I also don’t want to see Russia collapse into another revolution. The variables there are too horrifying to contemplate, and the only real winner would be China.
So what do you see as a plausible resolution for Russia / Ukraine? While anything is possible I don’t see Putin govt falling any time soon. Perhaps eventually his health will fail but we are talking years not months.
I would say there is a whole spectrum of plausible outcomes, with different degrees of likelihood depending on what we in the West do or fail to do. I understand that isn’t much of an answer. I, too, don’t see Putin’s regime falling any time soon on the current trajectory. But since that’s probably the only way we achieve anything that looks like a desirable end state, one of strategic lines of effort should be to continuously undermine him with his people and his generals.
I would like to see Biden persuade countries like Poland to join the fight in Ukraine. Point out that Poland may be next, and if they allow Ukraine to fall without punishing Russia, Russia will be that much stronger when they invade Poland. Poland and Ukraine together, with NATO and U.S. logistical support, would probably make quick work of Russia. Form the RDTO, or Russian Defense Treaty Organization, from the former Soviet block states, and give Russia one month to get out of Ukraine and Crimea, or everyone attacks. The stated goal of the RDTO would be to defend Russia's neighborhood from Nazis, with a poster of Putin wearing a Hitler mustache and hairstyle exemplifying a Nazi. It would be very unlikely that Russia would use nukes on any of these countries, unless they threatened to invade Moscow.
But all of those former Warsaw Pact states are part of NATO now. Countries such as Portugal would have a real problem with NATO members potentially dragging the alliance into war. To your point, I think that Poland, the Baltics, and probably Romania would be doing a lot more for Ukraine, but the U.S. is discouraging it.
Putting Poland directly in the fray absolutely would put the US in the middle of the war because as soon as Russia responds to Poland then we must get involved. Seems like it would be more effective to up our involvement, but stay far enough out such that Putin avoids attacking us or going nukes.
How do you feel about some of the measures I listed above that increase our involvement without directly engaging the Russians?
What if Poland sent troops in unofficially? Let them volunteer to fight in Ukraine? Citizens of a variety of countries are fighting in Ukraine right now. A couple hundred thousand Polish troops, dressed as tourists with heavy weapons, should do the trick.
I don’t have a problem with it, but some of the NATO leaders (including our President) would have a huge problem with it.
They should just send a few divisions of troops on vacation to Kiev, and have them listen to a Zelensky pep talk, and see what happens. I don't know why NATO or Biden would be against it, especially if you sent them in a few hundred at a time, through different entry points. At the very least, they should be able to send in military doctors and corpsmen, as well as supply personnel. They wouldn't be on the front lines, so it should take longer for Russia to realize they are there.
Any thoughts that expanding NATO will limit its ability to act now and in tie future because of too many diverse interests as a result of expansion?
