No, you are reporting the annual (not annualized) increase. So if you have 11 months of inflation and 1 month with no inflation, you would see inflation in the annual figure. Also, it would still be possible that an unadjusted figure that saw no increase would show an increase in the seasonally adjusted figures, if the month traditionally sees a lower than usual inflation. But if you look at the data, the index does not change from June to July. Unadjusted percent change is 0.0% for June to July. BTW, despite my academic discussion of seasonal adjustments, seasonally adjusted percent change is also 0.0% from June to July.
Without the administration's actions, inflation would be worse? Sounds like we need to be congratulating them on doing something useful?
Im hoping inflation sticks around for another year or two at 7-10%. Our gov has outspent itself with debt at 30T plus which above GDP. The only way to bring the debt down is either tax it down in conjunction with reduced spending. Obviously that would be political suicide. The other option is to allow inflation to lower the value of debt to a point where it is below GDP, which is a good thing imo.
You said we have no net inflation in July. That is incorrect. We do have inflation CPI at 8.5% and core inflation at 5.9%. Year over year Sherlock, we're still running inflation at a 41 year high.
You're half right. On the back of the sell down of the SPR, the CPIU went down to 8.5%. However, the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 5.9%. Congratulations on being able to now read half of a report.
Not at the expense of a temporary Biden executive order and no action to fix the flawed energy policy. The reduction ends with the end of the executive order. Even at that, the CPIU is too high to offer any congratulations. What the Biden Administration has done is to put a band aide on and open bleeding wound.
The quote you responded to is ... "The unadjusted index basically didn’t change from June to July - there was no net inflation in July." That is entirely true. July was flat meaning there are was no inflation IN JULY... what part of that do you think is wrong?
Let me try the johnny has 10 apples explanation... All through 2021, Johnny has 10 apples. In Jan, 2022, Johnny gets another apple, so for his January 2022 report, the number of apples Johnny has inflated by 10%, both year over year, and month over month. Johnny get's no new apples for the rest of 2022. So in February, Johnny's month over month apple inflation is 0%, but he still shows a 10% year over year inflation. Same in Mar, April, May, etc ... 0% month over month ... 10% year over year. In fact, Johnny's year over year apple inflation chart will show a 10% increase all the way up until Jan of 2023, even though Johnny's actual count had stayed the same for 11 months. That's what Bling tried to explain to you in post #15 ... that CPI, which is a year over year number, will remain high for months, even if we see incredible improvement month to month.... if it still hasn't sunken in, it never will...
We could have deflation Month over Month, and the CPI number will still show inflation. That's because the CPI number is a Year over Year number, and takes all price adjustments that occurred over the last 12 months into consideration. Prices stayed flat in July MOM, and the CPI still rose 8.5%. Had prices dropped in July, CPI would still have been high, because the 8.5% was the baseline YOY rise. 8.5% drives headlines, but this is a good report. Again, because it shows no MOM inflation, which is lower than expectations, which was a .2% rise. The August report will likely also be a good one for Biden, as gas prices are still dropping.
Thanks. I was responding to a post on housing costs not commercial buildings but I appreciate the perspective. Although still higher than 2019 for sure most inputs to a house are dropping off their peak, metals too. However, there are definitely shortages in some industries and markets for sure as anecdotes. My dad needs large prefabricated concrete blocks for a retention wall and he might as well be searching for Coronado's Lost City of Gold. Tight supply and expensive.
The 8.5% increase was for the previous 12 months ending in July. The CPI for the month of July was actually unchanged. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
