I agree. But the only real answer to that is to put in a military assistance element that aids Ukraine in getting the ordnance from NATO depots to the end users at the front as well as advises Ukrainian armed forces on employment. Without that kind of oversight, as you say, some of the material aid will just disappear, a greater amount than necessary will be destroyed by Russians as it waits unused in various storage facilities, and a greater amount than necessary will be wasted on inappropriate targets. If the U.S. put out a call for volunteers to establish an advise, assist, and training command in Ukraine, then tens of thousands of hands would go into the air, and we would have to turn away most of them. But this Administration still won’t do it. So it’s the current method of throwing millions (billions?) of dollars at the problem and hoping, or it’s nothing. I guess I would prefer this to nothing.
Logistics, logistics, logistics. That's how you win a war. Not sure how much logistical aid/support/training Ukraine is receiving, but it needs to increase.
“You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.” – Dwight Eisenhower
Well, logistics is a much broader topic than most people think. There are the supplies themselves, and we are assisting with that. But then there is the supply chain, and to assist with that at the operational level we would need people involved all the way from NATO depots to the end-user level, and that we are not doing. The good news is that everything in war is relative to the enemy, not to the best practice. And while the Ukrainians might suck at operational-level logistics, the Russians appear to be struggling even greater. The bad news is, most of the Russian problems appear to be inexcusable and correctable, so I think it’s just a matter of time till they sort it out.
Reminds me of a story from my old days of working in a chemical plant that made a highly explosive chemical. The story was that the plant had hired a guy right out of Texas A&M to be an instrument technician in this plant. The guy was very athletic, since he played defensive back for the Aggies. He was supposed to learn the job from an experienced technician who had been doing the job almost 40 years and was nearing retirement. At some point during his first year on the job, he was working on an instrument in one area of the plant, and the older guy was working somewhere else in the plant. That is when the gas release siren went off. The young guy knew that he was supposed to run to the control room when that happened, so he starts running at what he thinks is a good pace. Less than ten seconds later, the old guy runs past him. That's when he realized what was meant by "run to the control room".
No idea. But are you going to put one on every single piece of munition? And how do you know when the ordnance has been expended? You might keep “tracking” a Javelin that was used last month, now shows up as being in a Russian-held zone, and make the erroneous assumption that it was traded to the Russians.
Was thinking more of the shipment out of Poland and where they go after that. Even on the shipping crates or the truck. If we’re shipping 100’s of millions of dollars of arms and it’s believed a decent percentage isn’t making it to the front it’s reasonable to be concerned just where they are going.
I’m very concerned where it’s going. I think the battlefield results indicate that it’s mostly going to the right places, but I’ll bet we could go better. In my opinion, that’s going to take direct supervision of the supply chain. I think it’s worth the risk, but the Administration clearly does not.
seems the tide is shifting. What happens in Kherson will be a big tell. Hopefully, some of the home fires in Russia continue to grow as they try and recruit kids from the outlying areas to go die in the meat grinder. Russia's only advantage is it's numbers but 15k dead and many more wounded doesn't exactly help recruiting. The Ukrainians Are Hitting The Russians Where They Aren’t (msn.com) Five months into the wider war, Kyiv finally has the momentum, according to ISW. It’s an open question, however, whether the Ukrainian army has the resources to sustain this momentum. It’s clear how we got here. Russia went to war in Ukraine with too few troops to achieve its aims. Just 125 battalion tactical groups, each with 800 or so soldiers and divided between four main efforts: capturing Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast, the free portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the east and the entirety of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. But the Ukrainian army fought hard. Ukraine’s allies offered up intelligence as well as tens of billions of dollars worth of modern weaponry. After a month, Russia’s offensives around Kyiv and Kharkiv and along the Black Sea coast ground to a halt. .................................... In any event, the Russians this spring thinned the southern front to stiffen the eastern front, allowing the Ukrainians to counterattack in the south. Now the Russians are thinning the eastern front to stiffen the southern front—and the Ukrainians are counterattacking in the east, too. Retired Australian army general Mick Ryan described Ukraine’s strategy as one of “corrosion.” “This strategy of corrosion sees Ukraine attacking the Russians where they are weak.” If there’s a danger for Ukraine, it’s that its army also is exhausted. Ukraine enjoys geographic and morale advantages over Russia, yes. But Ukraine still is a much smaller and poorer country than Russia is—and its army is smaller. If raw counts of troops and tanks decided the winner of this war, the outcome would be clear.
I think only the most optimistic think Ukraine will “win” in any real way. Outside shot they get back to break even, but the most likely eventual scenario is Russia controlling a bit more of Ukraine, calling it a win and moving on. The goal from the beginning has been to weaken Russia militarily and economically, the longer the war goes the better that will go. The second goal is to make this bloody enough and ugly enough so that Russia will think twice before their next expansion idea. And the third goal (more aspirational) is to unite the west and divide China and Russia. And the expected added benefit is that it also sends a message to China on Taiwan and western resolve to defend democracy. Pelosi, whether you agree with her visit last week or not, was reinforcing that message, and that was one of the reasons why China got so angry. So far, by those parameters it’s been a success.
I don't have an opinion on Pelosi, I think the war in Ukraine is falsely reported and Russia is not a major threat to us. I think China is going to do what ever they want on that side of the world and that will be very bad for us. Taiwan is not defenseless though. It sounds like they could wreak havoc on Shanghai and Beijing with their missile system. China attacks Taiwan and the world will be a very different place quickly.
do you think Russia can withstand the sanctions indefinitely or the west will drop the sanctions with Russia still controlling Ukranian territory? A stalemate in the field while the sanctions continue to bite could be the path to victory. With air defenses and himars working for Ukraine, the stalemate is a very real reality as Russian advances have stopped and they are losing ground
Jmo, but yeah Russia can withstand the sanctions for basically as long as Putin is in power because he doesn’t give two blanks about his people and he’s fine. I think we will keep them in place as long as Ukraine is at war with them. at some point their war effort will truly be degraded, but Ukraine isn’t exactly a first class military either. The question is whether Germany and other more impacted counties can hold the line or will start to pressure Ukraine to make a deal. Because if they cave then the sanctions don’t mean nearly as much anymore. And if Russia sees that weakness they will be emboldened.
they have no chip production capacity. their auto production has stopped. Their aviation industry is 100% dependent on parts from the west and is degrading daily. I don't see how they can withstand the sanctions indefinitely, especially with the EU weaning itself off of Russian gas.
I don’t know about “indefinitely,” but with Chinese and Indian economic support they can withstand long enough to subjugate Ukraine. I like the optimism for Ukraine, and I hope it’s true. But I wouldn’t bet that way. Any conflict resolution that officially cedes any part of Ukraine to Russia, including Crimea, is a Russian strategic victory. We need to remember that.
