Unemployment drops again, 2x more new jobs v expected

Nobody is happy with the current inflation and negative GDP. But when employment numbers are great, it tells us we aren't in a typical recession. And there is likely to be a very soft landing, even if we are in one. Especially with all indicators showing inflation is expected to slow for July, and we won't be at 9.2% for July. And the strong jobs numbers and lower inflation rates tell us GDP will likely grow in this current quarter.

Taking a single snapshot in time and telling us we should panic without any context is poor form. The inflation still seems to be mostly supply side, which is slowly self correcting. This, along with the job numbers, show there is no reason to currently panic.

Your interpretation of the new law is also more panic without reason. It's like you prefer rooting against Biden over rooting for the country.

 

Focus on the laughter. (LOL) Germany laughed at Trump, but those chickens have already come home to roost. They just fired up their first coal plant this week. It's not funny now to them.

Another one who doesn't care about the state of the economy and the pain it's causing. The students here are too indoctrinated to know what to think and people of high income don't give a rat's ass about the pain middle class America is suffering.

 

U.S. Added 528,000 Jobs in July

 

It doesn't take being a rocket scientist to see where this fiscal policy is leading.

I've been all over this since last summer when inflation first started kicking in. I have been right every step of the way so far and I will be right again on this new piss poor fiscal policy. The name deficit and inflation reduction act isn't a lie, it's a damn lie.

 

How much of the decrease in unemployment numbers is coming from the denominator of the equation? That is those who are no longer collecting unemployment, but aren't employed either? I'm not talking about retirees, but those that have effectively "given up looking". Not poking at the politics here, just the accuracy of the data.

Anecdotally, everywhere I see has help wanted signs out and staff shortages where they didn't exist before pre-pandemic which seems strange to me.

 

The historical low is 2.5% in 1953 during the Korean War and the post-WW2 economic boom.

We saw 3.4% in '68/69, and then 3.5% in Jan/Feb '20, just before the pandemic kicked off.

 

Whether you collect unemployment or not has nothing to do with the figures.

 

The Labor Participation Rate number dropping puts water on the theory the job growth is retirees coming back into the work force. The LPR counts all adults over 16, and if retirees were coming back to work in huge numbers, there would be a corresponding jump in LPR numbers ticking up. But that didn't happen.

As for unemployment being going down because people stopped looking for work, I'm sure it's reflected a bit in the 3.5% number. But that's why the total number of new jobs is also released at the same time to add context to the unemployment number. And 500,000+ new jobs is a big number.

 

Yeah, it still cracks me up that people bring that up ... about 18 months ago people got $1200 stimulus ... that extra $15 a week that would work out to over the time period is really driving world-wide inflation...

 

OK, so digging a little deeper where do they get the numbers from? Has to come from records of some sort and it would make sense that unemployment distribution would be the most logical place, no?

Edit: I actually mean unemployment filings since not everyone is granted unemployment distribution

 

It is survey data. They send out people to interview a large number of households and employers about a number of questions related to the labor market.

 

That seems more than a bit inefficient and potentially very inaccurate. I always thought they used concrete data points.

 

It is actually far more accurate, but not efficient (it does cost money to collect the data). It captures a lot more of the nuance of the labor market that something like unemployment figures, where you deal with a variety of different individual incentives and differing legal frameworks as well as bureaucratic issues.

 

They also use a sample size of 60,000 households, which is over 100,000 people. It's extremely accurate.

But to answer your question, @DesertGator, people who have "given up looking" are captured in other unemployment metrics like U-6, which is also very low. Lower than pre-pandemic, actually.

 

Number of jobs that were added is up, gas prices down. President Biden having a good end of summer…..

“The job market got even better, in a surprisingly positive sign for the economy”

“Gas Prices See Fastest Decline in over a Decade, Down 83 Cents Since Mid-June”


America added 528,000 jobs in July, keeping the labor market hot — and employers are asking, ‘What recession?’

Gas Prices Currently Dropping at Fastest Rate in over a Decade

 

My God!!! Why won’t someone stop Biden,he’s destroying our country with all that stuff!

 

Hey guys, remember yesterday when I said the sun would set? Well now I'm using that same foresight to guarantee that the dolphins win the super bowl this year.