POLL: A two part poll: Should Speaker Pelosi go to Taiwan and should she take Minority Leader McCarthy

Your response is very interesting to me. Sea and air space within 12nm is considered an extension of the adjacent land and thus is sovereign territory. Not only that, but the extensive nature of the exercise will constitute a de facto blockade, which is considered an act of war.

Your reaction to this is not alone, not even in this thread. I find it somewhat shocking that the attitude from many toward such a level of provocation, which the PLA will likely normalize, is dismissive rather than alarming. I mean, intrusion and shelling of sovereign territory as well as blockade are literally acts of war. Limited to 4 days, sure, but before this the PLA rarely crossed the median line when within the strait, and whenever they did it was considered a serious provocation.

This is a wholly unexpected consequence to me. I definitely did not predict that Pelosi's visit would allow the PLA to trample Taiwan's sovereignty to this degree and actually be laughed at for not doing enough.

 

The SCMP may call it a blockade most others aren’t. China can’t afford one right now.
As far as their sovereignty, yes it’s worrying, but nothing will come of it this week. And if China tightens the screws later, they were going to do it anyway. So again, this is China trying to look tough, push some boundaries without really doing anything consequential, which is why the world is basically letting them blow off some steam (with a weary and watchful eye).
And by the way, I was clear way back when, I was never rah rah about Pelosi going, but once China got belligerent about it, she had no choice. Give autocracies the belief that they dictate terms and they will take the next steps forward. Just ask Putin after Crimea and other invasions. So some escalation became inevitable. But neither side wants anything to come from it, so barring some massive accidental escalation, things will start to slowly settle down once the exercises are over.
The fair question to ask is what this means longer term and what it does to China’s timeline on Taiwan. But my guess is little, they were always waiting until they felt they could handle Taiwan decisively and a decent US role in that fight.
But one never knows I guess. All I am relatively sure of is that China is that for all their bluster and even anger, they are not going to throw their entire country upside even down because Pelosi spent a day there. As a history major I took a great class on Chinese history, and the one thing that always stuck with me is that strategically, they think in terms of centuries, not years or even decades in many cases. They will yell now, but play the long game. It’s what they always do.

 

A knee jerk reaction to the scale of possibly starting WWIII in response to a <24 hr visit would, of course, be illogical. What's concerning to me is that we're trading some political advancement re: Taiwan for PLA military advancements. The more they can push the envelope militarily, the sooner the day will come when they feel confident about an armed invasion.

Personally I think Xi has given up on a political solution to Taiwan, so I think this is a trade he's willing to make. I think he's primarily waiting on two things. One is a larger nuclear arsenal. It seems like China is making a concerted effort in procuring more nukes and launch platforms. He would probably want to ensure MAD rather than minimal deterrence prior to initiating hostilities.

Second is probably EVs. China is vulnerable to blockades at key chokepoints, and a country needs to be food and energy sufficient to wage a possibly protracted war. China is food sufficient if needed, as while they import a lot of food most of it is not necessary for subsistence. They're also doing well with electricity, as they have plenty of coal and renewables. What they're not sufficient in is oil. Transportation would grind to a halt in a year or so even with rationing if sea-based oil trade is shut down. Proliferation of EVs would reduce this vulnerability. Unfortunately, the recent shift of Russian oil/gas toward China probably also sped up this timeline.

I think once he has accomplished these things, and it could be as soon as in 5 years at the rate they're building up nukes and the EV industry, I think he'll look to invade. Having normalized mobilizations for a blockade/invasion as well as having drilled it many times would make his task much easier.

 

China, still talking rationally and in measured terms. Lol.