POLL: A two part poll: Should Speaker Pelosi go to Taiwan and should she take Minority Leader McCarthy

Some truth to that, surely. However, I would point that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started the President has had to be led, instead of leading, on some issues by Congress and our allies. Depending on one’s perspective, this has only been a moderate amount or to a disturbing degree (I personally fall into the latter category). I welcome the Speaker leading on this, and I say it falls to the President to fall in line here, not the other way around.

 

I don’t have strong feelings either way. I tend to prefer not strutting around like a peacock in world affairs, but I do realize in some instances it is useful and helpful and even necessary.

 

Mostly agree, except that if one must strut as a bird, then I would prefer to strut as something more potentially menacing than a peacock.

 

I don’t know whether it’s a long term win, loss, indifference etc.
just saying today, China looks pretty impotent, and that’s because they behaved like a 5 year old who had their toy taken away. And if they choose to go to war because someone visited an island, then they will look even sillier, though obviously it would be a serious situation. They just handled it really poorly strategically. And I get that they are trying to basically anoint a king in the fall and needed to look tough, but clearly they took the wrong path to this point.

 

China never threatened to shoot down her plane. With that said, I do find it odd that they made such a big deal about it...domestically. The kind of words they used externally were not super unusual, what was unusual was how Pelosi's visit was headline news in China. Typically when they know something bad for China is about to happen, they censor the news on every channel pre-emptive. Even now on Xinhua's Chinese front page there are multiple articles about Pelosi's visit. I think Xi is trying to drum up support for something, though I don't know what yet. I may be a bit biased because I believe Xi is dead set on taking Taiwan during his rule. I see him as someone who's been in legacy mode since the first day he took office. That raises my suspicion that he may act on Taiwan more so than if Hu or Jiang was in charge.

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The statement:

"We support Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. For decades, members of the United States Congress, including previous Speakers of the House, have travelled to Taiwan. This travel is consistent with the United States’ One China policy to which we are committed. We are also committed now, more than ever, to all elements of the Taiwan Relations Act.”

Is this true? If so, China seems to be severely over-reacting here. I'm sure there's more to it though. I don't feel I have enough information to vote here, though I'm generally inclined to de-escalate rather increase tensions unless there's a very good reason to do so.

 

Members of congress, yes, it happens pretty frequently. But for the speaker of the house the last time was in '97.

 

they didn’t? A comment like this doesn’t end up in a state run paper by accident.

China could shoot Nancy Pelosi plane during Taiwan trip

 

In the US House, the minority leader is a very small fish. There are multiple committee chairs in the majority with more power.

The Senate resolution today sends a better message than sending McCarthy to carry her bags.

 

If Tucker Carlson tweeted a threat to sell Zelensky to Russia, would you say the US threatened to sell Zelensky to Russia? You should read the other stuff Global Times has published in the past, it's a jingoistic tabloid that says a lot of crazy things, especially their columnists. They're kinda like Foxnews, normal news reporting is biased but mostly factual, but editorials are just way out there.

 

Over the past year, China has taken steps that can be reasonably interpreted as increasing its readiness posture versus Taiwan. One suggestion of this just today is China’s sudden preparedness to do major sea and air exercises off Taiwan. Having been part of exercise planning for years, I can tell you that this takes months to do correctly; you don’t just throw it together in a couple of days.

There was also clearly some level of coordination with Russia for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at a minimum with Russia agreeing to wait until the end of the Winter Olympics. One theory out there is that if Russia had rolled over Ukraine with the relative ease anticipated, then China would have made its move as early as May (October is probably the absolute latest China can delay without waiting till next spring). The Russian invasion did not go as planned: the Ukrainians fought harder, Western weapons were more effective, and international support of Ukraine was greater. If China had planned an invasion this year, then those factors almost certainly played into Chinese calculus over whether or not to proceed, abort, or amend plans.

What if we and/or the Taiwanese had indications and warnings that the Chinese were making such plans for this summer? Can you think of a better way to peacefully demonstrate that our support of Taiwan is at least as strong as our support of Ukraine than to send someone we know the Chinese would not dare harm?

 

Interesting thoughts. My lack of relevant experience and the fact that we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes is a reason I try to avoid taking strong positions on national security issues. Still a worthwhile discussion IMO.

 

Again, they are state run. Tucker is independent. Most copy in state run newspapers there has to be approved well above the jingoistic columnist. It wasn’t printed by accident.

 

I happen to agree it was not an accident. The CCP let that run with the purpose of intimidation.

 

do you think Chinese papers have the same freedom of speech that Tucker enjoys?

 

It's somewhere in between. I see way too often that GT was taken as official CCP voice, and the justification is always that it's state run. It's a jingoistic tabloid for the state, and their threats (they make a LOT of threats) are never taken seriously by anyone who keeps up with news from China.

 

More fallout from the visit. China to start a 4 day blockade of Taiwan with military exercises that will intrude on Taiwanese territorial seas and airspace. This is an unprecedented escalation, but there appears to be little international outrage as most seem to deem it an appropriate, even anemic response. It seems to me that China intends to create a new military status quo in exchange for the new political status quo Pelosi created. Again, I'll preface it by saying that I may be biased because my assessment of Xi is that he wants to take Taiwan during his rule, but I think the military escalation along with the lack of censorship within China on the Pelosi visit seems to be an attempt to lay the groundwork for an invasion within the next few years.

China set to begin effective Taiwan blockade hours after Pelosi visit ends

South Korea seems to want to stay out of it as president Yoon refuses to meet with Pelosi. He was supposed to be on vacation, but it had been canceled prior to the visit so he would've been available to meet her.

After Taiwan, Pelosi's welcome to Korea is muted

 

this ones a bit more extensive, but they did the same thing in 1996. It’s all calculated to show how tough they are without really doing anything. Long term it might accelerate their plans a bit, but short and medium term it means little, barring a mishap that sends us down a bad path.