POLL: A two part poll: Should Speaker Pelosi go to Taiwan and should she take Minority Leader McCarthy

I voted yes because she should be able to go where she wants, and visit who she wants to visit. I also don’t care much for the Chinese government. However, I stumbled across this. I don’t know who this guy is, but he raises certain points I hadn’t thought about.


By the way, my son told me I should buy Nvidia back in 2017 when it was $48 a share. You snooze you lose.

 

She's landed.
Pelosi has landed in Taiwan. Here's why that's a big deal

 

She is going now because she’s in her 80’s, the republicans are likely to take back the house, so it’s likely her last chance as speaker to make a statement like this. She’s long been a China critic, so she wants to get this in while she can.
Don’t think it’s more complicated than that. Whether it’s wise is certainly open for debate.

 

Republicans closed ranks behind her. A nice change of pace for Congress.

A large group of GOP senators released a statement backing Nancy Pelosi as she lands in Taiwan for a visit.

 

When she was a representative, she did visit Tiananmen Square on the first or early anniversary of the massacre there, along with a fellow democrat representative and a republican representative.

 

One of the rare recent instances when "politics stopped at the waters edge". Originally stated by President Truman in 1948 by the way.

 

If it is the end of her run, and it could be the end of her run even if Democrats rally back to somehow hold the House, it will have been a great run.

She's been a tremendous consequential force for good. I highly recommend Molly Ball's biography. The current House leadership team is old, but they been very successful and they deserve the gratitude of the nation when they step down, which could be shortly.

 

I would like her to have thrown in the words “sovereign” and/or “independent” just as additional middle finger to the CCP, but I can understand why she did not, of course.

 

I don't really see how the PRC could mount an amphibious invasion of Taiwan if we got involved. Between our subs and long-range missiles, most of their forces would be blown to smithereens long before making landfall. And even if any get through, they would be cut off from supplies or reinforcements and have no ability to capture, let alone control a mountainous, heavily forested country like Taiwan.

 

Reading all the hyperbolic language coming out of China for the Pelosi visit, I decided the PRC leaders are the mother of all snowflakes.

 

China declares 3 days of military exercises around Taiwan from 8/4 - 8/7. The areas extend within the 12 nm territorial waters of Taiwan. It'll also traverse all major shipping lanes and flight paths around Taiwan. Here's a comparison between the just announced live fire areas compared to the ones in '96.



My guess is what China means by changing the status quo to their favor is a normalization of intrusions into Taiwanese territorial waters and airspace, judging by their response thus far. I think the chances of China turning these exercises into an actual invasion Russian style is fairly small.

 

So essentially they mouthed off with a threat that they never intended to carry out. Personally, I think their choice between losing face and losing ass was no choice at all, but we need to recognize these exercises for what they are: a temper tantrum. Despite all of its propaganda, China is not ready to lock horns with us in an air and sea battle, and they know it.

 

China is the one who escalated this unnecessarily. They could have kept it in diplomatic channels, threatened sanctions, boycotts, exercises etc. but threatening to shoot down her plane and the other over the top comments just made them look immature and rash diplomatically, and made Pelosi that much more likely to go.
China may learn from this, might not. But Pelosi is the winner here. Basically called China’s bluff and looks tougher and stronger than they are.

 

Opinion | Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless

While at one level I like the assertiveness of not kowtowing to China, I tend to agree right now we have bigger fish to fry in Ukraine and poking China in the eye isn’t particularly helpful.

 

Personally, I think it’s all related. China is curious to see what would happen with us if and when they make their move like Russia has. I would much rather demonstrate clearly to China that we won’t be bullied, so that they table the idea, than have to put the same level or greater of material assistance into Taiwan to assist in a war that is already joined.

 

I think normalizing military maneuvers within Taiwanese territorial waters is a substantial change. They very rarely crossed the midline prior to this, only poking around the edges. They could launch an invasion at any time, a time of their choosing, when that happens.

Let's face it, no one wants an actual war between the two countries. I've stated before that I don't expect China to take any action against Pelosi or any American asset. I fully expected for China's response to be directed toward Taiwan, however, but I don't know how far they're willing to go.

This is a scenario I didn't expect a few days ago, as I had only expected then for China to do something more one-off like shooting down a Taiwanese jet, something more PR than substantial. After reading Chinese statements about changing the status quo, I started to surmise a more substantial response, though I wasn't sure what exactly (I postulated flyovers, though I suppose that's still more on the PR side).

I still don't foresee an imminent attack,. I agree with you that I don't believe China is confident in a war with the US, and that's always a possibility when missiles start flying. But if they were to do it, I'd expect it to happen shortly after the exercises are over, when people start dropping their guards but all the military equipment is still nearby.

 

In all seriousness (and despite my previously doing the opposite of what I’m about to say; I get emotional, too), it is a little early to start celebrating a strategic win. I want to see if China really just does their militarily insignificant exercises or if they actually escalate the matter. But on the whole I agree with what you’ve written.

There is a time for all things under Heaven. Sometimes, a coworker at a party who has had too much to drink runs off at the mouth and wants to fight, but the best thing is to de-escalate and help others help get him home. However, sometimes you’ve got a mouthy little man for a next door neighbor who declares the sidewalk in front of his house is part of his lawn and he will beat the piss out anyone who goes on “his” sidewalk. In that case, the best thing to do might just be to skip, hop, and cartwheel down the sidewalk, then square up and say, “Well, now what?”

 

I understand and think our actions in Ukraine are as much about China and Taiwan. However having Biden and Pelosi at odds on this is kind of the worst of both worlds. It isn’t Pelosi China has to respect it is Biden.