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Luntz Focus Group

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by l_boy, Jul 28, 2022.

  1. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    I think the issue is we judge our fellow man by how they vote. I've learned enough about you to know we could have a beer laugh, enjoy a game and get along great in real everyday life. I assume that you like myself dont let political opinion impact you much outside of TH type settings.

    The 30% are the people who live in this world all the time. Facebook for an hour a night. Fox or MSNBC for 2 more hours a day etc etc... Taking it in like oxygen.

    Most of is arent in that space and thats where we are the 70%.

    Frankly, how you vote has very little to do with how much I enjoy someones company. Heck Libs are often more fun on a friday night anyway. ;)
     
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  2. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Why choose?
    Many of us would continue to go with the neither of two evils.
     
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  3. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Good lord that's false. Bluke gives a lot a valid opinion here. Frankly the memes and gifs add a bit of levity to some of the hateful tone that goes on.

    I'm here for it.
     
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  4. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Did you miss the reply where he said all that might be true and he doesnt always read up on issues?
     
  5. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    If nothing else I give him props for his honesty.
     
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  6. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    That sounds great and everything - but if a lot of likeminded right-leaning republicans do that Dems are pretty much guaranteed to win the presidency.
     
  7. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    This is a bunk argument. One of many studies on this subject:
    Traffic Stop Study
    In the 2004 study that was done, the “overall” odds ratio for Black motorists was 1.4. In the combined 2013-2014 data the “overall” odds ratio had risen to 1.85 and by 2015, it increased to 2.00. In 2013-2014, out of the 20 locations 1 odds ratio was below 1.0, 4 were between 1.0 and 1.5, 8 were between 1.5 and 2.0 and 7 were 2.0 and above. Thus, 75% of the odds ratios indicated that more Black motorists than expected were stopped based on the number of Black motorist in the traffic stream. In 2015 there was 1 location where the odds ratio was below 1.0; 3 that were between 1.0 and 1.5; 6 were between 1.5 and 2 and 10 were above 2.0. The combined odds ratio for the 20 sites rose from 1.85 to 2.0. In this year, 80% of the locations indicated that too many Black motorists were being stopped.
    * * *
    Essentially, the only post stop activity that is relevant to this report is searches, which are rare. Of interest for this present study are the high discretion searches, consent and probable cause. For searches, the benchmark moves from the percentage of minority drivers in the traffic to the percentage of minority drivers stopped. Black drivers are over searched with odds ratios for consent searches ranging from 1.91 in 2015 to 2.69 in 2013. When probable cause searches are the variable of interest, the odds ratios range from 2.54 for 2015 to 3.97 in 2013. In contrast, the odds ratios for consent and probable cause searches of White motorists are well below the rates that would be expected based upon their presence among the drivers who have been stopped. Hispanic motorists are searched at very nearly the rates at which they are stopped and female motorists are searched at well below the rates at which they are stopped.

    It is possible that the over searching of Black motorists is based upon the results of the searches. If more Black motorists who are searched are found with contraband, then one might argue that those circumstances account for their over searching. However, for consent searches the percentage of Black motorists found with contraband does not differ statistically from White motorists found with contraband, while more White than Black motorists are found with contraband when probable cause searches are considered.

    Some other articles on studies:
    Research Shows Black Drivers More Likely to Be Stopped by Police
    Racial disparities revealed in massive traffic stop dataset
    Chicago Police More Likely to Use Force Against Black Chicagoans: Watchdog
    NYPD’s Infamous Stop-and-Frisk Policy Found Unconstitutional - The Leadership Conference Education Fund

    One of many studies on this subject:
    The Retail Race Divide | Demos
    Across the economy, Black and Latino workers are less likely to work in professional, management, and related occupations—the highest paid occupational category in the labor force. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2013 Black workers were 11 percent of those employed, but held just 7 percent of management jobs.14 Similarly, Latino workers composed 16 percent of employed workers, but 8 percent of management jobs. At the same time, White and Asian workers were overrepresented in management occupations, and Whites experience increasing overrepresentation at the highest corporate levels, like among CEOs where more than 91 percent are White.15

    Retail replicates these disparities, with Black workers in the industry making up just 7 percent of management and professional occupations, like senior staff in human resources, public relations, administration, or sales (see Figure 8).16 These jobs tend to offer higher pay and steady, full-time hours, resulting in annual incomes well above the median for retail and for the economy as a whole.17 In a labor market with equal opportunity, the racial composition of an occupation category like management would look much like that of the industry overall. Instead, Black retail workers report employment in management and professional jobs at a far lower rate than White workers.
    * * *
    Across all sales and related positions, retail employers pay Black workers wages equal to 79 percent of the pay of White workers, a difference of more than $3 per hour that accrues to almost $7,000 in lost wages per year. Retail employers pay Latino workers in these jobs wages equal to 80 percent of those of White workers, a difference of $6,400 over the course of a year. As a result of the wage gap and occupational segregation, Black and Latino retail workers are significantly more likely to be low-wage workers than White and Asian retail workers.

    Here are articles discussing other studies:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/econom...ly-to-be-promoted-supported-by-their-managers
    https://www.theatlantic.com/busines...rs-really-do-need-to-be-twice-as-good/409276/
    https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandto...al-wage-gaps-persistence-poses-challenge.aspx

    Ironic that you're throwing around the "intellectually lazy" insult when I've taken the time to read the studies and evaluate the data/evidence on this issue, whereas you're relying on your personal anecdotal observations.
     
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  8. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    We all lose either way. At least this way the republicans will realize that they have to readjust their path to victory.
     
  9. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    It's a wonder that any non hard core lefty even ventures in here. I guess they really just can't help it.
     
  10. coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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    Lefty or righty, the singular aspect of this forum that appeals to me most is..... you best show up with some linkable facts if you wish to earn some credibility.
     
  11. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    There’s a lot of stuff there. It will take me some time and attention to get to it and process it. You may not believe this but in spite of whatever biases I may have I do try to bend my beliefs to what the facts and information says. In fact for years I tended to buy into the narrative of discriminatory policing etc, and I still do to an extent, but I just couldn’t ignore the facts around a things such as police shootings, which are fairly rare and generally proportional to the rates of violent crime in racial groups, and also found not to be disproportionate relative to the ratio of shootings to police encounters. Then it gets to are the increased rate of encounters caused by police bias, vs actual engagement of visible crime, and that becomes a more difficult question to answer, as to a degree both are likely true.

    Your first stats seem to indicate a greater likelihood of blacks being flagged or pulled over by police. I don’t doubt that is true. Then it becomes a question of is it “racism”, or are there other factors involved, such as older vehicles, vehicles in disrepair, or vehicles that tend to correlate with incidence of criminal activity (think tricked up black Ford Escalade ). You will probably argue that those are signals to police they are black so they should be pulled over. I may argue that it is the vehicle itself that is the flag, and if it were a white person inside with a shaved head and tatted up, they would get treated the same. Ultimately I can’t know, but I’m not going to see a raw statistic and just assume “racism”


    Then I don’t know if I read this correctly but you highlighted blacks are no more likely to have evidence of illegal activity given a consensual search. Well first, I would think that would be true regardless, because in general unless criminals are dumb (and some are) criminals wouldn’t volunteer for a consensual search. But more importantly if I am reading this right, blacks are being pulled over more often, and in spite of that, have the same percent of criminal evidence. If they were being pulled over arbitrarily and more disproportionately, then you should see LESS of a rate of criminal evidence, because you are pulling more innocent people over. So my conclusion is that there seems to be equity in the result.

    As to your hiring examples, my response would be what you provided in your example, that Asians are an exception. So am I to believe racist hiring individuals are otherwise cool with Asians? That makes no sense. The hiring disparity problem is due to less qualified minority applicants, and that is due to less minority graduating college, and that is due to a whole slew of economic and cultural factors, many of which are rooted in historical systematic racism.
     
  12. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    This is a really awful conclusion. It's motivated reasoning. On probable cause searches (i.e., non-voluntary searches), Black people had contraband at lower rates than whites, which would disprove your hypothesis here. With regard to consent searches (voluntary), it was equal. I'm not sure why you would assume that the rate would be higher with consent searches if they pulled over less Black people.

    It shows that you don't really understand systemic racism. Asians are a so-called "model minority." It is unsurprising that they face less prejudice in these institutions than Black people. And then you throw out nonsense that the studies disprove to justify the racial disparities. Again, this is motivated reasoning.
     
  13. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    From your link:


    “Post Stop Results
    • Black motorists are searched far more than their presence among motorists stopped.
    • Black motorists are no more likely to be carrying contraband when searched than are non-Black motorists.”

    So the rate of finding contraband among stopped blacks was the same as whites. If innocent blacks were being unjustly pulled over in excess, then the rate of contraband should be less. So presented with no other evidence, then the excess rate of stops for blacks would be justified. This is basic math. I’m sorry you find math awful.

    Bottom line, current systematic racism theory (maybe CRT, technically I don’t know ) is that if there are disparate outcomes regardless of the reason, there is systematic racism. Then the solution is to declare one group victims and one group racist oppressors, and then redistribute. Even if you believe that is a correct construct, that solution will never work. We will have systematic racism forever.

    “Model minority” - that was interesting.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2022
  14. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    No, that's not remotely correct. Instead of bloviating about things you clearly haven't made an ounce of effort to understand, you could actually take the time to examine the theories and the evidence. But regurgitating right-wing talking points to prove you're not "woke" certainly takes less effort.