Germany just approved a $180 billion fund designed to reduce the nation's reliance on Russian energy supply (msn.com) Germany's cabinet on Wednesday approved plans for roughly $180 billion in funding aimed in part at reducing the country's reliance on Russian energy, as Moscow continues to cut gas flows into Europe. About €177.5 billion ($179.7 billion) will be put into Germany's Climate and Transformation Fund between 2023 and 2026, the economy ministry said in a statement translated into English. The plan will be sent to parliament for approval. The special fund is key for the modernization of the German economy as well as financing climate protection, the government said. It will support the conversion of Germany's energy supply, decarbonization efforts, and development of the hydrogen sector, among other items. ........................ Germany's special fund will also address building renovations, with €16.9 billion earmarked for making buildings more energy efficient. The government will put €5.6 billion toward electromobility development, including expansion of the charging infrastructure. But subsidies for electric vehicles will end, the economy ministry said.
Europe Energy Crisis: the US Is Now the World's Top LNG Exporter (businessinsider.com) The US has risen to become the world's largest liquefied-natural gas exporter during the first half of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. According to an EIA report, US LNG exports increased by 12% in the first half of this year compared with the second half of 2021. In total, exports averaged out to 11.2 billion cubic feet a day. At least 71% of US' LNG exports went to the EU and the UK during the first five months of the year, the EIA said, as energy tensions with Russia mount. "US LNG exports continued to grow for three reasons—increased LNG export capacity, increased international natural gas and LNG prices, and increased global demand, particularly in Europe," the EIA said.
I’m very glad to hear it. We all need to understand, though, that this is not nearly enough to offset the pain sanctions against Russia are having and, worse, will have this winter on our allies. It’s going to take a concerted national effort to produce sufficient food and fuel to keep them on board and Russia in extreme discomfort.
KSA and Iraq now pushing up to 1M barrels per day via pipeline to Europe Europe Oil Refineries Get More and More Saudi Arabia and Iraq Crude - Bloomberg
And sanctions are really hurting Russia 'Complete standstill:' Sanctions leave Russia facing 'economic oblivion' (msn.com) Western sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine are doing their job — and decimating the Russian economy, according to a new paper headed up by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale University. "The paper's results include sobering facts about the Russian economy," Axios reports. "'Russian imports have largely collapsed,' the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies." The exodus of over 1,000 global companies from Russia has severely damaged its economy, the authors argue, and any posturing of strength or resilience by Moscow is not an accurate reflection of what's actually going on. Official data coming out of Russia are not true, they said. ............................... In their words: "Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure." This comes as another analysis reveals that China — one of Russia's most important allies — is not fully committed to helping Vladimir Putin either. While China is buying Russian energy to make up for Europe's reduced imports, the country is also publicly committing to support Ukraine's territorial sovereignty — and is not aiding the Russian military.
Sanctions against Russia where the long term play. Glad to see they are starting to hurt. At some point, Putin has to decide between his people and the war.
US estimates 75,000 Russian troops killed or injured U.S. Offers Prisoner Swap to Secure Griner’s Release, Official Says The Biden administration is quietly circulating an estimate of Russian casualties in Ukraine that far exceeds earlier U.S. estimates, telling lawmakers that more than 75,000 members of Russia’s forces had been killed or injured. If the Biden administration’s current estimate is accurate, it represents a staggering toll. Estimates of the number of Russian forces in Ukraine ranged as high as 150,000 in the spring, meaning roughly half could be out of action.
We also need to understand that this is driving up the price of nat gas here nearly 4x. Fortunes will be made by mineral rights lease holders and drillers and pipeline operators and costs will rise for electricity powered by nat gas and all things made from nat gas. Cheap ($2) nat gas was the engine that drove US manufacturing as it provided for lower operating costs for steel and electricity and serves as the basis for all things that can be crafted out of nat gas and the associated ethylene gasses. $8 nat gas is going to change all that. Largest aluminum plant in the US shut down due to higher energy costs directly related to this. I am still kicking myself for selling Chaniere. Massive Layoffs Hit One of Top U.S. Aluminum Plants, Halting Operations (newsweek.com) So when the EU cries, they need to realize that the US is shouldering the burden of higher energy and plastics prices too What is crazy is we are exporting gas while we cannot get gas to parts of the NE that need it so bad due to lack of pipelines. If the article below is to be believed, LNG capacity is about to ramp up once again with several projects already permitted. Billions will be spent on the belief that Europe will not buy Russian gas again at much lower rates than LNG can be delivered and processed. I can only imagine this will drive demand for the ships also as more gas moves via this process in lieu of pipeline. These ships, and related terminals, would seem to be premium terrorist targets so I hope that someone is paying attention to that issue LNG Project Tracker: Signs of US LNG renaissance could kick-start construction | S&P Global Market Intelligence (spglobal.com)
Big like to the Russian casualties. Big dislike to the disproportionate swap of chess pieces. Now anytime we bag a Russian bad guy all they need to do is take one of our citizens somewhere.
This is only the beginning and things will get worse. No matter what one believes concerning Russia and their capabilities it is obvious that Russia understands the biggest comes from Germany and their control over the region. Break Germany and you break everything. Cold showers as German city of Hanover reacts to Russian gas crisis The German city of Hanover has turned off the heating and switched to cold showers in all public buildings because of the Russian gas crisis. It's the first big city to turn off the hot water after Russia dramatically reduced Germany's gas supply. Germans have been told to expect sweeping gas reduction measures and extra charges on their energy bills. ........... And on Thursday, Germany confirmed that a planned gas surcharge on customers could be much higher than previously expected, to try to ensure energy companies do not go bankrupt in the coming months. "We can't say yet how much gas will cost in November, but the bitter news is it's definitely a few hundred euros per household," said Economy Minister Robert Habeck. Some reports said the levy could cost families an extra €500 (£420) a year.
Interesting. Let's hope How long can the Russian economy hold out amid crippling sanctions? - Kevin Drum
good read in the comment section. seems the Russian economy is even more dependent on imports than the US economy is. The important consideration is not whether the oligarchs feel a serious pinch, though that would certainly be nice. It lies in those cratering import numbers. While Russia produces a lot of commodities, it doesn't produce much in the way o manufactured goods. It doesn't produce a lot of high grade steel. It doesn't produce a lot of machine tools. As a consequence, parts of the economy are collapsing. Russian airlines rely upon imports for spare parts, so their airfleets are falling apart. More and more planes are grounded, and they are cannibalized for parts. And what is flying is becoming more rickety. Don't be surprised if there are aviation accidents start happeing. Their auto industry is all but shut down. Remember all of the problems that U.S. automakers have had because they aren't getting enough microchips? Russia's imports of chips, which they also don't make, have fallen close to zero. Consequently, they aren't making cars. The most relevant shortages are in military goods. It's estimated that Russia has fired off 60-70% of it prewar inventory of precision ground attack missiles. Without chips, they can't make any more of them. They have been reduced to using air defense missiles to strike ground targets, which is hideously inefficient. Their military aircraft are probably in better shape than civilian airliners, but that's a low bar. Even on the civilian side, they are facing severe pressures. The Russians have taken very high casualties in this war. The Ukrainians have, too, but they have mobilized to a full war footing, something Putin has refused to do. He's trying to generate new battalion tactical groups by ordering governors in oblasts that are not primarily ethnically Russian to raise them. Consequently, anti-Russian feeling is rising among non-Russians, like Buryats and Dagestanis, and their are signs of resistance. Consumer shortages aren't going to help that.
Long read but definitely worth it in my opinion. I am quickly coming around to the idea that Germany is the key to the war between Ukraine and Russia. Putin damn sure knows it and the Germans are in a vice - damned if you do damned if you don't. In short the German economy will crash - decades of addiction. The sordid history of Germany and natural gas. The Anatomy of Germany's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas The headquarters of Nord Stream 2 in Zug, Switzerland, have largely been vacated, according to someone who recently dropped by. Matthias Warnig used to employ 200 people at the site, and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the chairman of Nord Stream, would occasionally drop by. They were just about to open Nord Stream 2, the second double pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea. But then came February 24. Now, the telephones are dead, the internet has been shut off, there is no longer a mailing address for the company, no homepage and the most important accounts have been blocked. Salaries can no longer be paid. Not even the cleaning crew comes by any longer, and the last remaining staff members have to buy toilet paper themselves. It is all the result of U.S. sanctions. ........... It was during this time that two dogmas became established in the gas business with Russia, which held sway until Feb. 24. Doctrines that were never seriously questioned, despite all the warning signs. The first: The flow of Russian gas is interrupted by nothing. It continued when Kremlin troops marched into Afghanistan in 1979, in 2008 when the Russian military crossed into Georgia, in 2014 when it was Crimea's turn. It continued flowing when West Germany boycotted the Olympics in Moscow, when NATO expanded right to the Russian border in 1999 and when the EU imposed sanctions on Russia because of Crimea. Russia never turned off the spigot, and never did the Germans consider not accepting the gas.
The sanctions goal here is multi fold. I don’t think anyone who knows the psychology of Putin thinks this will make him stop. But it will limit their ability to wage war now and in the future. It will potentially destabilize the government to the point where Putin is at risk. It will make Russia think twice about their next invasion (which certainly would have come had this been easy) The whole concept of these restrictions will force Europe to divest from Russia long term, which helps western economies who would fill the gap. And just as importantly (and not talked about enough), it is sending a strong signal to to other wannabe conquerors that the rules are changing. Most notably to China over Taiwan. That the west can make their lives miserable without sending a single soldier. China is far more dependent on the west economically, and have to see this as a potential major road black to ever taking Taiwan. Which is likely why they are being so bellicose about NP’s potential visit, they are feeling more and more boxed in on that front.
even post war the west will have had to wean itself off of Russian gas and it is doubtful that they would just revert to being dependent upon it again. The pusher is losing his biggest addict, what will he do with all of his gas then? And unless Putin leaves Ukraine, I don't see the west dropping the majority of the sanctions that are crippling Russia.
A nice series of maps that lay out where the war is geographically.. Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion
details matter, nobody is taking cold showers at home. That's a pretty meager cut. And I wouldn't be surprised if the rise in nat gas prices in the US cost the average family more than $500 a year between increased electrical costs and the ripple effect of increased energy costs on businesses In a bid to save energy, Germany's northern city of Hanover has decided hot water will no longer be available for hand washing in public buildings, or in showers at swimming pools, sports halls and gyms.
I agree this is the beginning take away from public use before private use. The second article I posted I find much more interesting. I believe the media is playing down the grave consequences Germany faces if Russia shuts the pipeline down. The decreaes in gas are just a taste of what's to come.
