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Federal Reserve Raises Rate .75%

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Jul 27, 2022.

  1. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    Well what do you expect Sherlock, you can't have $3T deficits for 3 years running without repercussions. Trump didn't want the Save-The-World-And-Give-Everyone-Free-Money bill but we got it. Then we get PPP that in most part will never be paid back. You can't keep conjuring money out of the air and I think the Biden Admin got the point. The fact is the next administration will be an impotent administration because they won't be able to pass any spending bills. They actually might have to enact austerity measures if we slide into stagflation or worse. Like I said last week, watch the Fall at the grocery store. We'll see what kind of harvest we had this year but from what I've been reading on a number of farming reports, it could be the worst year since the Dust Bowl.
     
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  2. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    What do I expect? I expect deficits to be lower under Democrats and they are. Yay!

    As for Trump and the Save-The-World-And-Give-Everyone-Free-Money bill, Trump's objection to it was that there wasn't enough free money in it. He begrudgingly signed it but he wanted $2000 stimulus checks rather than the $600 checks he signed. Feel free to look that up.
     
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  3. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I agree. We are just under halfway there presuming no silly fiscal issues popping up which adds fuel to the inflation fire. I'd prefer aggression and get it over with sooner rather than dragging this mess out.
     
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  4. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I condemn excessive spending by both parties. However, Trump's spending resulted in a maxed out 2.8% inflation rate.

    In April, Joe Biden announced a 6-month executive order to release oil reserves from the US Petroleum Strategic Oil Reserves which were built up by Trump when oil was low and is now being frittered away by Biden for short term small reductions in gas prices at the pump. The executive order was political grandstanding as the Biden Administration has no intention of correcting their wrongheaded energy policies. When the executive order ends in October, gas prices will go right back up, right after the midterms. It's still not enough and the American people aren't faked out by this short-term political move

    Additionally, Biden sold to China, India, and the Netherlands out of our strategic reserves. Selling to China is doubly bad as China is our enemy, an impeachable offense to me, as those reserves were to be used to further lower gas at the pump for Americans. You can count on America Last coming out of the Biden Administration.

    Close the border down, finish building the wall, reinstate Title 42 Stay in Mexico, and accept checked out legal immigrants only. I'd favor a carve out for migrant farm workers only. The US just this week had its first case of polio in 10 years. I wonder where that came from?!?!?!

    You must be a very unpopular guy if you live in Arizona. The majority there believe a country with no borders and uncontrolled immigration is no country at all.
     
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  5. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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  6. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    This isn't the first time a deal has been reported and then not materialize. Some taxes in the right areas may be needed, but I wouldn't vote for one penny in new taxes.

    Where I think this deal may unravel will come in the energy sector. The climate cultists in the White House would veto any deal that does anything good for the fossil fuel industries. They have completely rejected the proposals from the American Petroleum Institute. Hopefully, Joe Manchin can get done what they could not get done.
     
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  7. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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  8. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I should have also mentioned that after AOC introduced the legislation in the House it died in Committee. It never even made it to a vote and that's with a Democrat majority and Democratic leadership.
     
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  9. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Inflation is a lagging indicator. And much of our inflation is supply issues caused by COVID shut downs across the globe. It's why EU inflation is currently higher than the US. Still, Trump with his uncontrolled spending put us a horrible position when COVID hit. Had Trump did shall tax cuts and spending cuts, like a true conservative, we would have been in a better spot to battle COVID, when we had to spend money.

    Last I looked, oil is also a global commodity, and prices are set by global supply and demand. And gas prices around the globe have been dropping the last six weeks. When did Biden release strategic oil reserves?

    As for immigration, nothing Trump did slowed down undocumented immigrants. And his cut in legal immigrants are in part a cause of the labor shortage, which is partially responsible for the inflation. We should reinstall the legal immigrant numbers, and follow a Gang of 8 plan. Spending billions on a boondoggle wall that doesn't stop anyone is a waste of taxpayer dollars. Especially when we need the labor.

    Oh, and last I looked, Arizona has two D Senators and Biden won the state in 2020. Tell me again how the state feels about the border? And it's laughable to think if we don't control the border we have no country, because I guess we've never had a country, since we've never had a controlled border in our history!
     
  10. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump gets no reprieve from me except for the first Covid package. He should have never listened to Fauci and shut down. Overall demand would have still dropped for a short period of time and the first package would have gotten most people through it.

    I’m not sure when in 2020 I first said it but I predicted that we would rue the day we made those foolish decisions and that it would take a decade to recover from the damage we did to ourselves.

    Now we have shortages , inflation, a poor food harvest, and as soon as people run out out of their Covid bonuses we will have a major recession, and a period of stagflation before recovery.

    On the plus side for old farts like me who preserved their capital and got out of the market as soon as Putin started massing troops at the border, we will soon be able to very safely invest my retirement savings at 6-7% or more instead of the 3% I have used in all of my modeling.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2022
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  11. GatorWon

    GatorWon GC Hall of Fame

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    What trade did you have on for the announcement Gekko?
     
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  12. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Damn, good for you. That’s awesome.
     
  13. thomadm

    thomadm VIP Member

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    Inflation isn't going anywhere. With Boomers retiring and Gen Y and Z making home purchases, cash worth will continue to decline and honestly it's probably good long term. With our debt at 30T, inflating that debt by 30-50% over the next decade will allow us to reset and grow.
     
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  14. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't buy your globalism. I'm an America First republican. The US inflation rate was higher than the EU until a month ago. Let's don't do what the EU is doing. It starts with going back to energy independence and I'd prefer dominance.

    Mark Kelly is toast and Kyrsten Sinema is not exactly popular among her fellow democrats. Regardless, republicans are going to do the things I mentioned above. I know for a fact the majority of Americans don't support open borders. The dems have lost Hispanics over this issue along with family values and law and order. You are incorrect to say Trump was ineffective at the border. He had the border locked down for the most part and is within a couple of hundred miles finishing the border wall which Biden is paying not to build.

    Joe Biden announcing the 6 months executive order reducing the strategic petroleum reserve:

    WATCH: Biden announces use of strategic oil reserves for 6 months to control gas prices | PBS NewsHour

    Selling to China is an impeachable offense to me.

    Biden Sells Oil to China from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve - IER (instituteforenergyresearch.org)

    White House announces sale of additional 20 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Fox Business

    The Biden Administration energy policies amount to a war on the fossil fuel industries at a time when it will be impossible for renewables to satisfy the US energy needs for decades to come. It's a blunder that will cost the dems the house by an historical power shift and may cost the senate as well.

    This from the American Petroleum Institute would work great, but you won't see the Biden Administration doing it:

    Letter-to-President-Biden-on-10-in-2022-Plan (api.org)

    I'd do everything on the list except #6. The steel companies are part of our strategic interests. I would not end the tariffs on foreign steel. The US cannot afford to lose the ability to produce steel domestically.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2022
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  15. coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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    Boondoggle ? "A March 2021 review of the Trump work on the wall found only 47 miles (76 km) of new barriers where none had previously existed. While Trump had described the new wall as "virtually impenetrable", it was found that smugglers had repeatedly sawed through the wall with cheap power tools. Also, new dirt roads that had been used to access the wall construction served as new access roads for smugglers."
     
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  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Really, a reputable link would be helpful.....
     
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  17. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    You may not buy globalism, but that's because you're staunch in your views and unmoved by evidence. For example, there are industries in the US where 90% plus of products are manufactured outside US borders and imported in. Like textiles, for example. What happens outside US borders effects us at home. We could potentially bring textile manufacturing back home, but at a cost. Raw materials and labor for textiles are cheaper in other countries. And if we domesticated this production, it would mean every piece of clothing on Walmart racks would then cost more. Which would mean inflation.

    And Trump? He slowed legal immigration, but the Libertarian CATO Institute says it best. Trump accomplished nothing when it comes to undocumented immigration. Again, you have your beliefs. I'll go with the evidence.

    Speaking of evidence, it looks like Masters will win the R primary for Senate and gave Kelly. Last RCP poll, Kelly vs. Masters had Kelly up +9. Polls can be wrong, but rarely this far off outside the margin for error. The polls favor Kelly against all Rs in the race too, by similar margins. The reason? Rs are trying to out-Trump each other, and be as far right as possible. It's turning off moderate Rs, who aren't happy with any of the choices, and will vote for Kelly in Nov.
     
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  18. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Wrong, I'm well aware of how manufacturing involves parts from all over the world. My Honda was assembled in Ohio with 76% American made parts.

    What I'm speaking about is globalism that surrenders the US and what is best for the US to globalist values. Just last month, a key adviser said while in Europe that the American people having such high inflation cannot be allowed to upset globalist values. Well, pardon me, but didn't people vote for Joe Biden to represent their best interest and to defend the constitution of the United States?

    We'll see when the people go vote. I don't need any poll as so many are dem stacked and are really nothing more than attempts to reduce voter turnout. I don't see that happening and I don't think the Arizona people are stupid. They will vote with their pocketbook when the time comes. That does not favor the dems.

    You asked for proof of Biden's 6-month executive order which I delivered. It's shocking that you don't know why our gas prices have fallen .40 cents a gallon nationally. Hint: It has everything to do with misusing our strategic petroleum reserves and nothing to do with global supply and demand. This ploy will run out and higher gas prices are inevitable without a change in the Biden Administration's energy policies. What are the odds that is going to happen? I'd say 0.00%.

    I also gave you the API response to input requested from Biden. All I hear are crickets chirping.
     
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  19. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    The days of isolationism are in the past. We did elect Biden to represent the best interest of the US and defend the Constitution, but that doesn't mean all policies need to be domestic only, and stick our head in the sand when it comes to international politics. Maybe the US could do that 150 years ago. But now? Will never work. The world is "shrinking" every day, and the global pandemic was exactly that, global. There wasn't much anyone could have done to stop inflation when the entire world was experiencing global supply shortages. Not Biden. Not you. And certainly not Trump, who's idea of global economics includes the false belief that trade wars are easy to win.

    Well, there was one thing countries that didn't experience huge inflation were experiencing. And that's a recession. Countries like Greece and Portugal, who are EU members by the way, didn't have high inflation early 2022. Because their respective economies were struggling and had no local demand. But inflation in these countries are also going up, and Portugal was just over 8% recently, and Greece 10%!

    Maybe. But there is a type of R voter in Arizona that is turned off by Trump. Call them integrity matters voters, who see Trump as toxic because of Trump's history with women, how Trump treats minorities, and Trump's devotion to the Big Lie. The fact that all Arizona R Senate candidates are sucking up to Trump are turning these voters off 100% (read the AZ Republic article in the last post). These voters all see Kelly's devotion to his wife, Gabby Giffords, and Kelly's distinguished military service, and aren't afraid to cross the line and vote for a D. They did when they voted for Biden in 2020, and the R Senate candidates in Arizona are all in Trump's shadow.

    Oil is a global commodity. Supply and demand around the globe effect global prices. Three things effect oil prices. Current global supply, current global demand, and future predicted demand. More supply on the global marketplace, and prices will go down. It's high school level econ. Prices went up because demand started to spike after after the vaccine hit the market, and people saw an end to the pandemic. It further spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine, and countries stopped buying oil from Russia, limiting the supply these countries could purchase. To say an increase in supply from the US releasing strategic reserves just isn't true. How much did prices fall because of the strategic reserve release is up for debate, but what's not is the effect the release had. Biden has also agreed to buy back oil for the reserves, which should also effect gas prices, because remember, future demand is one of the elements.

    As for the API response? Biden does have to balance short term issues with his stated long term goals of moving away from petroleum products. A delicate balance for sure, but it is likely the world has reached peak oil already. We cannot go on forever with our increased demand for a resource that has a cap on supply. Oil isn't renewable, and the time for forward thinking should have happened years ago. But better late than never.
     
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  20. coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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