The Biden administration’s preemptive pushback on ‘recession’

Actually, when he was campaigning Biden promised to ban fracking under new leases on Federal lands. After he took office he placed a moratorium on fracking on Federal lands in place and even that decision was reversed by a court. So no it's not a fact that Biden banned fracking.
Biden Promise Tracker: | PolitiFact
Federal Drilling and Fracking Update: Biden Promised a Ban - He's Doing the Opposite
No, Joe Biden didn't just ban fracking - CNN

 

So because gubmnts worldwide did it means that we should have too? The last round of stimulus (and possibly the one just prior to it) was unnecessary.

 

Sorry, hyperbole on my part. I don't expect anything the magnitude of what happened in '08....the fundamentals aren't that skewed, but quickly increasing interest rates could quickly put the RE market into a "correction." A slowdown of that nature could create a ripple effect throughout the economy.

 

Why acknowledge a statement that isn't true. Biden's administration, unfortunately, has been issuing more drilling permits than were being issued by the Trump administration. In addition, the U.S. oil and gas companies are exporting enormous amounts of fracked gas abroad. Reversing climate change is way more important and way cheaper in the long run than paying a few more dollars for gasoline.

 

That's okay. I gave you an F for failure.

 

Figures don't lie, but liars figure. The facts are the facts. And one fact? If you use the simple term of oil exported is more than oil imported as a sign of energy independence, then the US is still energy independent under President Biden! Of course, this definition was way too simplistic when it occurred under Trump, and is still now today. That's because much of the oil we export is much too crude to be used for our energy purposes.

The other fact is current unemployment is at 3.6%, with less than 6 million people out of work, and total, non-farm job openings are over 11 million. Last month, the US also added just under 300,000 jobs. If we are in a recession, which if you use the definition of two straight quarters of negative growth, we probably are, there is a possibility of a soft landing, because there are plenty of job openings for those who do get fired.

Another fact is the current inflation is a global problem. EU inflation is currently outpacing US inflation (thanks Joe Biden!), and the issue is still one of supply. But here too, there are signs of improvement. Gas prices have been dropping for a month, and the cost of a shipping container has dropped more than 50% from it's high, and 20% since February. Signs that last month's 9.3% inflation is likely the high point, and the needle should start to move in the right direction soon.

These are the facts. Those on the right who figure Biden campaigned against fracking and fossil fuels and that's what is driving prices up don't have the facts to back them up. And we are likely in a recession right now, but it certainly doesn't feel like 2008 at all, likely because there are currently twice as many job openings as unemployed. Wasn't like this when the bubble popped in 2008, which may mean we're in for a soft landing during this recession. And prices? Inflation was mostly caused by supply problems, but there are signs that show this is slowly being corrected.

 

Even if it was “unnecessary”, it’s not clear how much of these inflation issues were caused by that stimulus. Correlation != causation.

My instinct tells me the extended unemployment benefits lasted too long, and that is inflationary, but I refuse to believe people made MAJOR purchasing decisions (housing) or stayed out of the workforce because of a few extra unemployment checks. The housing thing is especially ludicrous.

I remember when gas prices first started going up (long before Ukraine war) there was speculation about lack of drivers and possible shortages in summer of 2021 (this pertained specifically to gasoline, but the lack of drivers basically effects anything delivered on trucks). The reason given for that lack of drivers wasn’t so much that the stimulus or unemployment benefit caused it, it was that a large chunk of drivers *Retired* during the pandemic never to return again. Throw in the fact that some slightly increased % of drivers died during the pandemic, the aging demographics in this country, the anti-immigration policy of the prior admin, and the lead time to training up new drivers, and it’s no wonder there is a persistent shortage of labor. Gas was on its way likely to $3.50-$4.00 regardless of anything a new admin could have done, I think that extra spike was the Ukraine war causing a shock to global markets. It isn’t just energy either, market moving quantities of grain and fertilizer are disrupted by Russia’s militant actions.

 

Removed or retired?

The percentage of the country aged 65 or older has grown by 5% during that time frame, the same amount the labor participation dropped.

It's pretty close to a 1:1 relationship

 

You don't think the reason they are no longer in the workforce matters from a policy perspective? Unless you plan on working folks until they keel over, increasing retirements due to an aging population is just something we're going to have to deal with.

 

Retired means they voluntarily left (unless they have some mandatory retirement age) AND their departure is permanent.

If the labor participation rate is correlated to aging demographics, those individuals are out of the workforce and there is no govt policy to bring them into the workforce, many of them are possibly not even capable of working. Even for those that theoretically could be coerced back to work (can’t think of a good govt policy where we’d want this, but let’s say a stock market crash?) the productivity gained via bringing a bunch of 70 and 80 yo’s back into the workforce is questionable at best.

We are also losing productivity due to opioid/meth epidemic, and the right wing hostility towards immigrants has cost the economy potentially productive workers as well.

 

What is a recession? The lunacy of the Biden Administration.

 

Don't believe your lying eyes!!!!!

 

Biden did not ban fracking. Most everything else you have posted carries the same degree of accuracy. The industry collapsed because the price of oil fell through the floor and Biden had nothing to do with that...

 

agreed, both parties voted for it though

 

Of course, Biden did nothing. If you really believe that, I have a solid gold watch I'm willing to give you a good purchase deal on. All he did do was to regulate them out of existence, ban them, that pesky ban word, from fracking on federal lands, and let their bankers know they weren't to loan money to oil companies if they wanted a decent EVG score. That the ticket for restricting oil production when you can't get it passed through congress. Seven dem senators wouldn't go along with an outright ban.

 

Wrong! The $1.9 trillion in 2021 that was the straw that broke the camel's back was passed in reconciliation in the senate without a single republican vote.

 

Streisand Effect....

The previous ten times the US has experienced negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters it has been labeled a recession. You have hours of the MSM and Biden administration calling two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth a recession. Hell, you have clips of pundits back once negative GDP growth was announced in 2020 for one quarter stating that it meant we were already in a recession.

But Democrats are dumb and have no sense for politics. They'll get the bad news tomorrow, spend the weekend spinning it through their friendly media allies, and by next week more voters will believe we are in a recession than do so already. And the Biden Admin will be more heavily ridiculed, and trust in media, academia, and the "experts" will continue to crater.

 

The Wall Street consensus is that GDP won’t be negative, anyway…. I guess we find out tomorrow…