The Biden administration’s preemptive pushback on ‘recession’

Not shedding any tears for them. You know what you get when you sign the papers. Like idiot boat owners taking out 20 year loans.

 

I get very tired of hearing and reading things like " the stock market tanked ". It tanked from what, all time highs? People make it seem like another Great Depression is right around the corner. You're net worth went down $50,000. What percentage is that of your total net worth? Quit making things sound worse than they are.

 

That depends on what your definition of "is" is.

 

We are in recession. The only reason to say not is the 3.6% unemployment rate, but in June 2022 there are fewer workers in the work force than what existed in January 2020 pre pandemic.

Everyone saying no recession does not have to live on their paychecks. Most everyone who has to buy food, gas, really anything used in daily life, knows the inflation rate is higher than 9.1%. Transitory Inflation in 2021 is the cousin of No Recession in 2022.

Insofar as the NBER is concerned, they announced the Great Recession a year later than when recession had actually started.

Unless the Biden Administration reverses course on policies which it has so far refused to do, you had best hope that recession is as bad as it gets. I would not rule out a depression with this bunch of climate cultists making poor business decisions in the White House.

 

You are not making more money than ever. Inflation has outpaced all wage growth by a wide margin. You are poorer, not richer. If you lived on a paycheck as most Americans do, you would be painfully aware of this.

The stock market had its first 6 months performance come in lower than at any other time in modern history. It is still teetering into a Bear Market and will only go lower once the federal reserve rate increases continue and begin to take hold.

Insofar as home prices go, what went up can come down and will likely do so in most locations. Mortgage originations and mortgage loans crashed as far back as March as was reported in April. The run up in prices nationally are over. The only place to go is down. The only exceptions might be states with rapidly increasing population of which the Free State of Florida leads the pack. Expect those inflated net worth statements to be falling, not rising in the near future.

The number of people in the work force in June 2022 is less than the number working in January 2020 pre pandemic regardless of what 3.6% says.

Marketing? The Biden Administration is reduced to arguing over a definition of recession when most middle-class Americans are living in recession. You can't market the lack of improvement the American people are experiencing due solely to poor policies of the Biden Administration, the poor fiscal policies of congress, and the slow to react federal reserve. It's a trifecta of poor performance.

 

But still much higher than the healthy 59-60% we used to be at. I think a labor force participation rate over 60% shows too many parents having to leave the kids behind to earn enough money to make ends meet.

 

Can we assume that you flunked economics in college? If Biden did anything that materially increased prices, it might be his decision to not buy Russian oil. I think that most of us would stand by that decision. What I would say has caused U.S. inflation is several things. One is that the pandemic, to put it mildly, was not handled well in this country (Trump, his minions, and all of the people not willing to do the things necessary to control the pandemic bear lot of blame). That resulted in production shutting down, car rental companies selling off fleets, workers being laid off, etc. The pandemic on a world-wide basis caused similar things to happen. Following this, trillions of dollars were pumped into the economy by the Trump administration and, to a lesser extent, by the Biden administration, so that people could put food on their plates, pay their rent and mortgages, etc. On top of all of this came the Russian invasion of Ukraine at a time when things were somewhat getting back to normal in the U.S. With the demand for goods and services getting back to normal, the providers of the goods and services can't keep up or don't want to because they are making piles of dough from the increased prices. Businesses need to hire more employees to meet the increased demand and to deliver the products throughout the country. That includes hiring more foreign workers, including those who would be coming in from our southern border. So, we need effective guest worker laws to address the shortfall. We probably should also be getting rid of some of the tariffs imposed during the Trump regime. The fed is increasing interest rates. Oil reserves have been dipped into. The idea of getting rid of regulations will be raised by some of you, but that should get dealt with on a regulation by regulation basis. The concept of jettisoning necessary regulations that have huge long-term benefits to solve a short-term problem is not a good one.

 

Keeping in mind that the average automobile loan in the US is over 5 years (almost 6), the chances are that the buyers now defaulting on their car loans purchase autos which they really couldn't afford when the former president was still in office. Although not nearly as serious the situation with car loans is not unlike the housing bubble of 2004-2007 when buyers were conned into taking out mortgage loans for houses that they really couldn't afford.

 

Really? The only things we can control are in the US. In that, the Biden Administration policies are the cause of pain and more pain to come.

It started on Biden's first day in office when he began his all-out assault on fossil fuels. Fracking? What fracking. Regulations? Too many. Keystone Pipeline? Forget about it. Energy independence? Forget about it. Just go buy an expensive electric car. All this capped off with the unnecessary $1.9 trillion wasted on pandemic relief package which was the gas on the fire for inflation and continues to be today as many states still have not spent all of the money allotted to them.

The US could be energy independent yet has completely rejected an all of the above approach. Like it, don't like it. these things matter and they don't have to be this way. It's all on watch of the Biden Administration.

 

Keeping in mind that the numerator (the size of the potential labor force) for the calculation includes all non-institutionalized persons over the age of 16, meaning a good part of the decline in the workforce participation rate from 2001 is attributable to the retirements of baby boomers. Another factor although not nearly as significant is the high cost of childcare resulting in a disincentive for parents (overwhelming women) of young children to reenter the workforce.
The Mystery of the Missing Workers, Explained

 

It's a nice narrative only it's really not based on the facts. Has the there been a reduction in fracking since Biden took office? Don't think since although there was a reduction in the production of oil from fracking in early 2020 attributable almost entirely to the low price of petroleum given that it doesn't make economic sense to extract petroleum when the cost of production is well above the market price. Personally I have mixed feeling regarding the decision to halt construction of the Keystone XL but considering that it wasn't complete and it's primary purpose is to transport oil extracted from tar sands in Alberta, the decision had virtually no impact on the availability of petroleum and while it can be argued that this (see links below) was the correct decision at the time given that independent US producers were on the brink of bankruptcy at the time and it's still the single biggest factor in the increased price of oil over two years later.
Oil Nations, Prodded by Trump, Reach Deal to Slash Production (Published 2020)
Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources
Note that the drop in US crude oil production in 2020 and remember that Biden didn't take office until January 20, 2021.

 

I dont live paycheck to paycheck but as I pointed out Home equity is 65% of one's wealth. For most Americans that is the important investment not their stocks. Secondly, real inflation adjusted wages are UP at the bottom. 16-24 year olds are making MORE after adjusting for inflation than they were last year. Q2 2022, Median weekly real earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by AGE, SEX, AND RACE, not seasonally adjusted: Quarterly | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Let me borrow from your next point... what goes down must go up. Feel free to get out of the market and bet against it going up. It's a point in time.

Prices arent up due to speculation. They are up due to a shortage. New homes are years behind. You bet against housing prices at your own risk. There will be a slowdown in purchases but housing prices wont erode broadly.

That doesnt matter. What mattes is 11M jobs and 5M people looking for work. That is what is important. However, I will address your question. The labor force is aging. There is a massive reduction in workers under 55 thus there is massive shortages of early career workers - another reason their real wages are up. We need immigration or birth rate changes. Unemployment rate for 55 and older is only 2.7% so not a lot to hire there.

No they arent. No, the White House isn't changing the definition of a recession

 

Start with acknowledging the Biden Administration banned fracking. That is fact.

End with Biden was given the keys to energy independence and now has the US behaving as beggars of oil production from enemies of the US when the US has the largest gas and oil deposits in the world.

You can work in that gas and oil number employed is down close to 40,000 workers under Biden than under Trump. Of course, Ole Joe didn't have anything to do with this. (LOL)

 

That's been almost 50 years.

 

You failed economics. Isn't that what you said to the other guy who has a rational view of the Biden Administration?

All of your conclusions are faulty and tainted with Trump derangement syndrome at a time when none of this mess was caused by Trump.

Come November, there is going to be a red tsunami. I'll let the American people show you their displeasure of your I don't live on a paycheck false conclusions.

 

Another poster waves white flag, hurls insults, and claims the normal midterm results are gonna be a mandate. I didn’t tell anyone they failed economics. I’d give you an incomplete though for lack of depth.

 

I would say a 10% loss in net worth is significant, particularly if a housing market slowdown impacts values and with rising interest rates that is not unlikely. That possibility would also negatively impact net worth.