Haven't been that active lately here, but did I miss a thread on what I think is the most interesting story out there right now.
Sounds like our military thinks things may go kinetic if this happens. My guess is during the phone call between Biden and Xi things would be made clear what kind of action and reaction each side may expect if the visit happens. Biden says call with Xi due within ‘next 10 days’, casts doubt on Pelosi trip
I saw that. I don't know if it will really stop it. But it may. Would be sad if it does. Still interesting that was even planned, and that high EU Offcials have also been visiting of late
It would defeat the point otherwise. You’re trying to pitch it as a routine trade trip to a trade partner that can set its own policy with other than a Head of State. You don’t want to act like it’s a trip to a breakaway area in a potentially active war zone. Interesting what they are threatening though channels. And what we hopefully get in return if we cancel
I don't think they'd do anything more than symbolic right away, but I think it would cement military takeover as the plan. They would probably see it as an attempt to normalize high level interactions between Taiwan and the US, a pathway toward treating Taiwan as a sovereign state. That will be unacceptable to the CCP, so they will probably begin specific war preparations, probably with a plan to invade before we can obtain credible hypersonic weapons. Right, that's exactly how the CCP will see the trip, which is why they will feel it's very provocative. They'll see it the same way Russia sees Ukraine trying to join NATO, so if the visit happens there will likely be fireworks.
But the speaker is not the only such visitor. European Parliament vice-president Nicola Beer cites Ukraine and Hong Kong as she arrives on first ‘official’ visit to the island EU lawmaker opens Taiwan visit with vow to ‘stand firm’ with Taipei I think the Western alliance is feeling their oats a little bit, and with some good cause, although certainly it can be overplayed. A year ago China seem to handled Covid far better than the West. And they were drawing somewhat closer in some form of limited alliance or mutual interest sharing with Russia. Since that time the Quad has developed, there's a new regional trade deal with the US, albeit a weak one, the Western alliance is announcing alternatives to Belt and Road (which is causing a lot of dissatisfaction in teh nations it was supposed to strengthen ties with), Russia looks a bit weak in Ukraine, China is handling Covid terribly (their vaccines were far less effective than those from the West although we need to jump back ahead on the variants, and they have discontent), and China is having hard time figuring out how to navigate the Ukraine issue and maintain their world standing in the manner in which they wanted to. Plus growth continues to slow and all of the negative economic indicators reported elsewhere in the thread. Again, the Western alliance may be overplaying its hand, but that was the context. Still the greatest danger comes from within, especially the far right tendencies in many Western nations. But things sure look a lot better than a year ago. It's not 1942, but in terms of the West against totalitarianism, the trends are slightly better.
Yeah, I think that's what China is afraid of, that actions like these will open the floodgates and normalize the treatment of Taiwan as an nation rather than an autonomous territory that's the result of an unresolved civil war. As for the balance of power, I'd say it's pretty similar right now. The economy of the West isn't doing so hot right now either. But more important to me is the internal threats you're brushing over. Italy's Draghi has already fallen and will likely be replaced by the neo-fascist Meloni. Macron's neutered and Scholz is severely weakened, both in favor of the far right. Boris Johnson is a special case, I won't lump him in with the rest, but we know full well what's very possibly coming here at home. IMO, the totalitarianism from the East is not nearly as threatening as the totalitarianism that's arising from within. Great nations fall from within, not from without.
Because China can go stuff itself. That’s why. Taiwan is an independent country. The Speaker can go there if she damn well wants to.
They'll do that privately so if Pelosi decides not to go it won't look like cowering to Chinese demands. If the visit is still on, though, I can see them making their warnings public to help shift blame to the US if hostilities break out.
