I hope you are correct. But sadly I would not bet against Russia in a war of attrition on the current trajectory. In my opinion, the West must steadily increase military pressure on Russia if we want to see Ukraine free.
Say what....? Captured Russian Weapons Are Packed With U.S. Microchips | The Drive "The component list offers some of the most detailed information to date about the extent of where the Russians are getting critical microchips, semiconductors and other components. The items on those lists raise serious questions about Russia's ability to produce the technological components its war machine relies on and the ability of countries like the U.S. to keep those technologies secure, an expert tells The War Zone. In the Barnaul-T air defense command post vehicle, for example, Ukraine intelligence said its specialists found eight microchips from U.S. manufacturers like Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp. in its communications systems. Ukrainian specialists also found five U.S.-made chips - manufactured by AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology - in the direction finder of a Pantsir air defense system."
I am reminded of a true story about Saddam Hussein from the Iran-Iraq War circa 1982. After Iraq’s initial surprise invasion of Iran had been repelled and Iran was poised to march into Iraq, Saddam sent out feelers for a peace treaty. Khomeini was adamant that any peace was predicated on Saddam being deposed. During a meeting of Saddam’s inner circle, one of his ministers suggested that Saddam temporarily step down until a treaty was signed and that Saddam could come back into power later. Saddam calmly asked if anyone else agreed. When the room remained silent, Saddam asked this minister politely to step into the next room with him for a private conversation. He then personally shot said minister to death in the hearing of all in attendance, walked back into the conference room, and resumed the meeting as if nothing had happened. Six years of brutal stalemate and slaughter followed.
Why does it surprise you that U.S. microchips would be so crucial to Russian military technology? Russia has always depended on someone else’s innovation either through espionage or purchase. China, despite the propaganda, is not much better.
Russia may be running out of equipment. If their active duty gear was so poorly maintained I can't imagine how their mothballed equipment will perform Russia is pulling old, obsolete tanks out of storage because it is losing so many in its war with Ukraine, intelligence suggests (msn.com) Russian armor losses have been substantial in the country's brutal war against neighboring Ukraine, and the latest intelligence indicates it is having to pull old T-62 tanks out of storage to replace more modern equipment lost in battle. Ukraine's defense ministry said in a Monday update that "as a result of losses during hostilities," the Russian military has been "forced to withdraw from storage T-62 tanks to recruit reserve battalion tactical groups that are being formed to be sent to Ukraine." And on Friday, the British defense ministry posted an intelligence update reporting that "Russia has likely moved 50-year-old T-62 tanks from deep storage," noting that the move "highlights Russia's shortage of modern, combat-ready equipment." The UK also said that these Soviet armor assets "will almost certainly be particularly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons," such as anti-tank guided missiles like the Javelins provided by the US or next generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAWs) from the UK that have been devastating even Russia's more modern tanks over the past three months. ................................................................... A senior US defense official told reporters in a background briefing Thursday that the US estimates that Russia has lost nearly 1,000 tanks since it launched a large-scale invasion, what Russian President Vladimir Putin calls a "special military operation," on February 24.
Well, you have to admire the brilliance of Putin on this one. He assesses that one of his T-62s is worth less monetarily than one of our Javelins. Therefore, we will stop sending Javelins as a function of cost-to-benefit analysis. He might be spot on here. If this proves fruitful, I would expect to see the appearance of WWI-era biplanes over Ukraine next. No way we would let our Ukrainian partners waste Stingers on those either.
Wonder what ever happened to the Ukrainian cash for Russian military equipment program? With this latest round of Russian equipment they’re going to have to rebrand it Cash for Clunkers.
For me, the shocking part was just how much and the variety of companies. I hope that's stopped now. The good news from that is that if they really are adhering to the sanctions, those chips will run out and they'll be stuck. I honestly thought they got more from China than it seems they do in reality.
This is a long term problem with no easy solutions. I remember when some politician wanted to ban exporting Xboxes and Playstations to Russia. The reason is the chips used were better than Russia could make dor their military equipment.
Looks like our plan of combining or meager support of Ukranian resistance with Russian isolation to break her may not work before Russia does what she does best: eventually get her stuff together and roll up like an approaching tide. We need to, at minimum, take off the kiddie support gloves and start pouring more and better equipment into Ukraine and supply more Intel/surveillance/training/logistics/etc. Today.
They probably will get more from China now, which is still just an indirect means of acquiring it from the West. The Chinese make Western products, but they don’t really invent the technology.
The predecessor to the Javelin was the M47 Dragon, an early man-portable laser-guided system. From what I’m told, it flew so slowly the best countermeasure would be dudes with baseball bats next to targets (exaggeration, of course). I suppose before that you have TOWs. Unfortunately, though, unlike the Russians we don’t tend to keep obsolete weapons sitting around in warehouses. So I suppose we’ll have to start raiding museums for this particular arms race.
Why waste a javelin on a 62. Won’t those shoulder fired rocket launchers used by everyone everywhere knock out a 62? They are super cheap too compared to a javelin.
In all seriousness, I don’t think a SMAW can cause a catastrophic kill of a main battle tank, including a T-62. It might be able to cause a mobility kill if you hit the tank just so, but I think those things were designed for light armored vehicles and bunkers. One of our posters with infantry and/or armor experience can probably better address the question. To your point, though, yes, they are far cheaper and easier to transport than Javelins. The problem at this point, however, is that the supply chain on Javelins is in full force. So we might as well keep sending them. With less seriousness, the Russians have very cleverly figured out how to bleed us white by giving us targets not worth the cost of a single Javelin. Ivan wins this round. Hope everyone on this board likes vodka.
