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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

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  2. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

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  3. ValdostaGatorFan

    ValdostaGatorFan GC Hall of Fame

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    I (we) appreciate the updates!
     
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  4. dingyibvs

    dingyibvs Premium Member

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    People need to stop applying lessons from daily life to international affairs. The world operates very differently when there's no higher authority to enforce rules.

    The explosion is very small, probably from a small mortar or small rocket. The odd thing isn't the lack of a sizeable crater, but the fact that those weapons have limited range so they're only used near the front line, and this area doesn't seem like it's just a few kms from the frontline. Still, it's war, I'm sure there are many possible explanations aside from it being staged.
     
  5. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, we "made" him do it. Give me a break.
     
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  6. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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  7. dingyibvs

    dingyibvs Premium Member

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    We made a move that he perceived as a threat, and he acted upon it. Nothing more, nothing less. There's no right or wrong about it. I mean, there is, it just doesn't matter.
     
  8. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Where does right and wrong not matter: his perception or his actions?
     
  9. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    A tad disappointing--I wouldn't call it 'extreme' for reasons set forth below.

    Yes, I believe this is what motivated the Pope's comments. Had the Pope piled on and chastised Russia, there would be nothing to discuss at all. Putin would tell Pope to go fly a kite, and get in line.

    By echoing the Russian narrative, he keeps the lines of communication open, thereby leaving the prospect of achieving a peaceful resolution.

    As I posted way up thread, pride is an enormous factor here. No peaceful resolution comes about without Russia saving some face in this debacle, somewhere, somehow. The likelihood of the Pope facilitating any kind of peaceful resolution, is certainly slim, but still at least a hair above absolute zero, if he doesn't make that statement.

    jmho/fwiw.
     
  10. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Many an unarmed person has met his demise at an armed person's perception that he/she was going for a firearm. How much do you suppose the distinction b/t perception and reality matter to the person who was shot?

    Just saying, because as the case here illustrates....more attention should have been paid to possibility of mis-perception. I mean, we have a war, that prolly could have easily been avoided...but far more saliently, is to take note for the future--by which I mean now--b/c the next *misperception* here, could very well result in a volley of ICBM's....

    At that point, who gives a flying @#$#$ who's to blame, and who gets to cry innocent vic?
     
  11. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    A back peddle.

    That's a good sign. Proud Putin swaller'n some pride, and actually showing some semblance of self-consciousnesses and inclination towards something resembling diplomacy.

    Now, if only we can figure out a meaningless but non-humiliating face saving out for him to latch onto and skirt his ass back home...he might just be ripe for taking it.
     
  12. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    So anyone that comes near someone with a fire arm must forfeit all their rights of self determination?
     
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  13. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    So long as Russian face-saving takes the form of all Russians in all of Ukraine saving their faces to the Russian side of the Russian border, then I have no issue with giving the Russian a face-saving out. Any “face saving” that includes Ukrainian territory, including Ukrainian territory stolen since 2014, is a non-starter. I would prefer to go to war, and that’s what I would tell the Pope if he was sitting across from me. If he thinks he can persuade Russia to fully withdraw in exchange for a solemn oath of Ukrainian neutrality, then fine. But let’s not full ourselves; he can’t. He might as well be more like John Paul II and less like Pius XII and make sure he is on the right side of history.
     
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  14. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Here's one: Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, Russia withdraws entirely from Ukraine, and agrees to respect Ukraine's sovereignty; the West agrees to lift sanctions, Russia agrees to pay for Ukraine's reconstruction. De facto, that amounts Russian defeat, but it gives Russia/Putin an out, and something to point to, to claim victory (i.e.--NATO not abutting Russia's border). It's a hard sell, and frankly premature, but it's a very plausible resolution to this mess.

    jmho/fwiw.
     
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  15. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    upload_2022-5-5_17-28-51.jpeg
     
  16. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Not the point. The point, is that you can't negotiate with a bullet--once you're shot, you're shot, and it doesn't matter whether the shooter misunderstood your intentions, or understood you perfectly...
     
  17. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I would be satisfied with those terms. The current Russian regime would not. In order to have such a resolution, first the Russian military must be decisively beaten in the field (not likely but plausible) and second the Russian regime would have to collapse (far more unlikely but not impossible).

    I do not think Putin can politically accept anything less than official Ukrainian recognition of Crimea and most of the Left Bank being ceded to Russia, international recognition of the conquest, and lifting of the sanctions.

    There is quite a delta between those two end states, and tens of thousands will die before we see one or the other.
     
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  18. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, Pope Francis is hardly likely to broker a peace (Putin isn't even Roman Catholic--he doesn't view the Pope as any kind of authority). But the Pope may facilitate communications between Moscow and the West, and maybe somewhere along the lines, somehow, we get there.

    Quite frankly IMO, Russia does NOT pose nearly as big a threat to the West or the World for it's pipe dream imperial aspirations, as it does a threat to instability as an agent of chaos.
     
  19. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Russia already agreed to respect Ukraines borders when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes.
     
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