Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Draft Alito opinion leaked overturning Roe

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by tampagtr, May 2, 2022.

  1. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

    13,899
    5,170
    3,208
    Nov 25, 2017
    Yes it can be changed. That is the problem with leaking it. Opinions are often drafted and re-drafted. One of the little known facts of SCOTUS opinions is that dissenters often help the author write the majority opinion, many times, to avoid unintended consequences.

    This draft is sweeping in its change to constitutional doctrine. My suspicion is that whoever leaked this is pushing for a plurality decision-- a majority vote on the abortion issue-- but not such a radical and sweeping change to constitutional construction.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

    122,539
    163,662
    116,973
    Apr 3, 2007
    I wouldn't think the first draft of any opinion would start out in the "middle" but on one side and slowly work back to a point where they get a majority of the Justices.
     
  3. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

    13,899
    5,170
    3,208
    Nov 25, 2017
    Not under the Alito doctrine.

    BTW: As for gay rights, equal protection is not an originalist doctrine.
     
  4. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

    17,522
    2,765
    1,618
    Apr 3, 2007
    None of us really know, and I understand your logic. But if you want a centrist opinion that is most likely to draw the widest possible swath of support while still reaching the same end, you don't assign it to Samuel Alito. Justice thomas, as the senior Justice and the majority, assuming the reporting is correct, would have the assignment. And both he and Alito are infamous for trying to word opinions and very provocative extreme ways.

    Again, this is all speculation, but there is the thought that this was leaked because one of the other median justices, speculated to be Justice Kavanaugh or Justice Barrett and I can't believe I'm calling them median, but I guess they are strictly speaking, we're thinking of defecting, and the leak was done to put out there what they would be defecting from to create a lot of internal pressure within the movement.

    I previously said that the leak of a draft was unprecedented and I still pretty much stand by that, though the amount of leaks during deliberations historically were greater than I realized and more recent. But one thing I feel certain about just knowing how these things work, though I cannot prove it, is that this draft had been freely circulated in the ecosystem of extreme conservative Court functionaries. I don't really have a good name for it, but it would definitely include Leonard Leo and Pat Cippilone and of course Ginni Thomas. Of course, that's not a public lead to the press, but the court operates as another policy arm of the movement within that group and of course it would be shared.

    There's strong evidence that it had already been leaked to the Wall Street Journal, or at least a pretty detailed description thereof, as there was a piece out a few weeks ago which seem to be calculated to ratchet up the pressure on any justices from the five judge majority that might defect. Again, all speculation
     
  5. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

    122,539
    163,662
    116,973
    Apr 3, 2007
    I would have expected Justice Barrett to get assigned the majority opinion.
     
  6. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

    13,899
    5,170
    3,208
    Nov 25, 2017
    In Judiasm, life begins at birth because (under Jewish belief) that is when the baby gets his or her soul. But, Judiasm protects the potential for life, too.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

    16,368
    5,614
    3,213
    Oct 30, 2017
    Or we could apply the values of the present to decide issues that are facing us in the present. But I'm sure that the "values" of slavers and misogynists who never saw a television, much less the internet, are really what should guide us today. Nope. Pass.

    It will certainly be an interesting day when conservative judges and justices actually start abiding by the rule you're trying to set here. There's a reason (many) why nobody actually supports what you're proposing here.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

    17,522
    2,765
    1,618
    Apr 3, 2007
    You are not alone in that assessment. Not at all. There is rank speculation, again no more than that, that she declined
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  9. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

    3,051
    939
    1,858
    Nov 24, 2021
    Buffalo NY
    This act is definitely needed now.

     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

    3,051
    939
    1,858
    Nov 24, 2021
    Buffalo NY
    Good question/point

     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  11. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    10,602
    1,326
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    I agree, but I won’t happen because Machin is pro life, so don’t think this will change his mind on ending the filibuster. Maybe this issue will push more swing voters to the democratic side to expand the senate and hold the House in 2022, but I doubt it.
     
  12. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

    122,539
    163,662
    116,973
    Apr 3, 2007
    I really don't think this was leaked as an election issue to motivate people to vote. Everyone knew this decision was coming down this summer, which would have been obviously before the election. I think it was leaked to pressure justices to either change their vote or lock in their vote.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  13. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

    2,289
    366
    1,993
    Jun 14, 2014
    If anything, leaking a draft solidifies right wing expectations and makes it harder for anyone waffling to moderate, lest they get the Roberts treatment for not being sufficiently loyal.

    There’s just no logical reason for someone on the left to leak, compared to like a dozen fairly compelling reasons on the right.

    Outside just a complete emotional meltdown by a left wing clerk (which seems unlikely given the timing), this pretty plainly came from the Thomas/Alito camp.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
    • Like Like x 1
  14. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

    16,368
    5,614
    3,213
    Oct 30, 2017
    Plus, the opinion was sent around in February. You'd think if it was an emotional meltdown, it would have happened around the time they received the opinion.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  15. ga8orman1

    ga8orman1 Premium Member

    627
    44
    238
    Apr 3, 2007
    There is no bar low enough to which todays libs will still fervently crawl under to achieve their anti democracy agenda. This leak is abhorrent! And they just don’t care.
     
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 3
  16. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

    16,368
    5,614
    3,213
    Oct 30, 2017
    And if a conservative leaked it?

    P.S. I chuckle at you arguing that being transparent with the people about what a court full of unelected judges is going to do is "anti-democratic." That's certainly a take. But then again, you support the party that attempted a coup after Trump lost the election, so you may not know what "democracy" actually is.
     
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 4
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Winner Winner x 2
  17. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    12,803
    1,718
    3,068
    Jan 6, 2009
    i suspect that is the future. We will do away with the filibuster and go back and forth with laws as composition of govt changes. In general the structure favors republicans so I think they would do it.

    I am pretty confident the Rs would do away with filibuster in order to save millions of slaughtered zygotes.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

    16,368
    5,614
    3,213
    Oct 30, 2017
    Oh well. That's democracy in action. I'd rather be judged on what we did than be judged on what we didn't do. Same for the Republicans.
     
  19. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

    5,549
    1,777
    3,078
    Nov 30, 2010
    oh, you know who the leaker is? &, when you say libs, which party are you referring to?
     
  20. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    12,803
    1,718
    3,068
    Jan 6, 2009
    It can lead to significant inefficiency. Imagine passing ACA, then repealing it, then reinstating it. Such laws are enormously complicated and costly to implement. Same with many regulations.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1