War in Ukraine

Keeping in mind that early on Putin said that the Russian troops deployed to Ukraine weren't conscripts either.
From Tass - March 7th.
Conscripts, reservists don’t and won’t take part in operation in Ukraine — Putin

 

Russia won't end up with much more than Crimea and the Donbas, which it effectively already controls. Even if it Putin manages to expand the territory under Russian control he will still be stuck with an ongoing insurgency, bleeding the country both economically and militarily.

 

Belarus with folks on both sides it seems

 

Another breakaway region "vote" to join Russia, this time part of Georgia

Georgia says 'unacceptable' for breakaway region to vote on joining Russia | CNN

 

CNN live

"Russian bank appointed to open accounts in rubles for gas buyers from "unfriendly countries," state media says
From CNN's Chris Liakos

Gazprombank has been appointed as an authorized bank that will open special accounts in rubles for gas buyers from "unfriendly countries" and will sell currency for conversion into rubles for gas payment at Moscow Exchange auctions, Russian state news agency TASS reported Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that according to a newly signed decree regarding natural gas trading with "unfriendly countries," companies will need to open ruble accounts in Russian banks, and payments should come from these accounts."

......
The UK, France & Germany have Saud absolutely not to this agreement.

 

From the BBC on the gas threat:


However, the market reaction suggests the details of the mechanism, means that, in practice, European customers will just have to change their currency dealers to Gazprombank. That bank has already been left unsanctioned, for the purpose of continuity of energy trade.

As a result, gas prices remain very high, but did not today shoot into the stratosphere. There should be a work-around. As one leading analyst told me, this solution has “saved face” for Putin, who can sound tough on domestic TV. Ultimately, as Russian officials have repeatedly said for decades, Russian supply of energy to the West continued uninterrupted even during the height of the Cold War.

Ultimately, Russia still needs the money for the gas and still wants to leave the possibility of a market for its main export, once a peace deal is signed. However, it is also true to say that the threat of a cut-off has escalated. EU nations have prepared emergency measures to manage demand, and would be more willing to face that now during spring and summer than winter.

The net effect of the mechanism announced is to limit the ability of the West to freeze the revenues they pay to Gazprom, which Putin described as receiving the gas for free.

 

I’m glad he’s not willing to accept a partial defeat, because I’m not either. The only acceptable end state is a return to the January 2014 borders. I will raise bloody hell if our government settles for anything less when we have Putin reeling at the moment and have not done everything we could have to help Ukraine.

 

Interesting, the video I posted in #5266 of the Russian advisor getting browbeaten into agreeing with Putin on the invasion is apparently his "spy chief", perhaps the same guy that Putin feels misled him?

 

Agreed

I've said from the onset that this is an opportunity to radically shift the global power dynamic. For all the craziness of the past two years, this - Russia, and what could become of her - could be what remains in the history books in a hundred years. On par with the splitting of the Roman Empire or the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Yeah, I know. But let me dream.

 

Best wishes for your friend.

If this happens, there goes the he-just-wants-a-land-bridge argument.

 

There is no way he's giving Crimea back ... I think there is a better chance he'd nuke the planet before suffering that kind of humiliation.

 

I don't want to dream about a Russian civil war or something on that level, that's more like a nightmare. It would be like Syria, but with nukes.

 

Well, I'm certainly not dreaming of a Russian civil war either. But sign me up for another February Revolution, but without the October Revolution.

 

Maybe they thought he was defecting?

 

I am not wed to the condition that Putin has to give back anything. I’ll settle for the Ukrainians paying the iron price for it with weapons, munitions, fuel, and food we provide.

And I’m calling BS on his nuclear bluff. No matter how unhinged Putin may actually be, my guess is he can still do math. Losing this war probably means abandoning his dreams of a reborn Russian Empire in his lifetime. Oh, well. Going full nuclear means being the guy who lost Russia altogether. Let’s not forget — and may he never forget — our nukes actually work, and they’re accurate, and we have the capability of intercepting some of his (he has no such counter-capability). His nuclear weapons arsenal is an effective deterrent to keep us from using the bomb as a first-strike weapon (not that we would). But as a first-strike weapon itself it is only a guarantor of national destruction.