War in Ukraine

I can see it happening. Putin's response in 2014, besides taking Crimea, was wrecking Ukraine. I think his overarching strategy was basically if I can't have it, you can't either. That strategy obviously didn't work as the EU and NATO were moving toward taking in Ukraine anyway, so the current strategy is probably to up the ante. Wreck Ukraine militarily, take away its resource rich (energy and agriculture) and more Russian speaking eastern half, preferably including the Black Sea coast, drive the population who won't support Russia west. What you're left with then is probably 30+ million Ukrainians with wrecked, landlocked cities with few natural resources, which will be a significant financial burden for Western Europe for decades to come.

 

True, but tourists visit it all the time, and people work there. It’s generally considered safe to be there under certain circumstances for periods of time. If people are suddenly getting ARS again, then the Russians have done something to let the genie out of the bottle.

 

Yeah, saw this this morning. Intelligence says Putin thinks his advisers mislead him out of fear of upsetting him.

Reminds me of a clip they showed on John Oliver’s show, looked like some kind of meeting of his advisers regarding his war plan, and when an adviser called for more more diplomacy before invading, Putin stared him down and grills him until his advisor said he agreed with his plans….

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/rus...him-about-ukraine.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

Here is the clip…

 

People work there in controlled shifts. They wear proper PPE and they are highly, highly monitored.

Tourists are allowed with approved escorts, they are constantly monitored and are advised to see their own health care providers after they leave.

Finally, there are still parts of Chernobyl that people should not enter under any circumstances unless they are protected with the highest forms of anti-radiation PPE. If the uneducated soldiers wandered into those areas of the now idled plant, they could very likley have been exposed to an unacceptably level of radiation.

None of the above, however, refutes the possibility that the Russians did "let a genie back out of the bottle" however, and your comments and concerns are very valid in my opininon.

BTW, I am not a nuclear expert. Do not pretend to be. However, I was working at Oak Ridge National Lab, one of our own nuclear facilities at the time of the accident. Many of us would run to the lounge for the evening news cast to try and learn any little bit we could (since there was was hardly an internet as we know it now, twitter, Facebook, etc....). I have followed Chernobyl for a long time, but I am not some self-proclaimed expert. So, please do not take my comments as those of an arrogant know-it-all. I don't. I do have one collegue who was part of the international monitoring effort back in the early 2000's, and she is now dying of cancer. So, what I am is very cynical about just how "safe" the site is and whether or not people really should go to the plant or even Pripyat to visit.

 

Did anyone really believe them? Cnn live

"NATO secretary general says Russian troops "are not withdrawing but repositioning"

From CNN’s Cece Armstrong

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that he expects additional offensive Russian actions that will be “bringing even more suffering.”

Speaking at a news conference in Brussels for the secretary general’s 2021 Annual Report, Stoltenberg said that according to intelligence, “Russian units are not withdrawing but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities.”

“We can expect additional offensive actions bringing even more suffering,” Stoltenberg said.
“We have heard the recent statements that Russia will scale down military operations around Kyiv and in northern Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. “But Russia has repeatedly lied about its intentions, so we can only judge Russia on its actions, not on its words.”"

 

Apparently volunteering for the military isn't popular in Russia

Russia drafts 134,500 conscripts but says they won't go to Ukraine

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a decree ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the army as part of Russia's annual spring draft, but the defence ministry said the call-up had nothing to do with the war in Ukraine.

The order came five weeks into Russia's invasion, which has run into fierce Ukrainian resistance. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that none of those called up would be sent to any "hot spots".

 

Aw...too bad

"Suspension from world soccer is "unfair," says Russian Football Union

From CNN's Amanda Davies

Alexey Sorokin, a member of the Russian Football Union delegation, criticized Russia’s suspension from world soccer on Thursday at the FIFA 72nd Congress in Doha, Qatar, and said it was unfair.

Speaking to journalists before the start of the congress, the former FIFA Council member said he found it “strange” that the Russian team is not allowed to play international events.
....

“We feel that our football players, football lovers have been unfairly treated; they have nothing to do with this,” said Sorokin, a day before Friday’s 2022 World Cup draw.
Earlier this month, the Russian Football Union declared interest in hosting the European Championship in either 2028 or 2032 -- despite the country’s football ban. "

 

Cnn live

"Putin authorizes draft of almost 135,000 conscripts as part of twice-annual call-up

From CNN's Uliana Pavlova and Nathan Hodge

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a decree on spring conscription, fixing a target for 134,500 individuals to be drafted into the Russian armed forces.

The Russian military has a mixed manpower system that has draftees as well as contract servicemembers. The country has a twice-annual call-up for conscription.

According to Russian state news agency TASS, around 134,650 were drafted last spring and 135,000 Russian citizens were drafted in the spring of 2020, figures both slightly above this year's conscription number.

Putin originally claimed that Russian conscripts would not take part in what Russia has euphemistically dubbed the "special military operation" in Ukraine. But the Russian Ministry of Defense subsequently acknowledged that draftees were fighting in Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces claim to have taken a considerable number of Russian conscripts prisoner."

 

more costs being paid by Russia. their version of the FAA apparently hacked and lost 65 TB of data disrupting what air traffic they have

BREAKING: Russian Aviation Authority Suffers Cyberattack - Mentour Pilot

According to Russian sources, Rosaviatsia, the country’s Federal air transport agency, fell victim to a cyberattack and lost 65 TB of data!

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had numerous effects in and out of both countries. One of them is that groups of hackers have focused their cyberattacks on organizations in Russia and Ukraine. This has already caused other disruptions. But today we are getting news that such an attack has had a massive effect on Rosaviatsia. This organization is the country’s aviation regulator, equivalent to the FAA in the US, or EASA in Europe.
.........................

“Due to temporary lack of access to Internet and malfunction of the electronic document flow system of Rosaviatsia the Federal Agency for Air Transport is switching to paper version.

“The document flow procedure is being determined by the current records management instructions.

“Information exchange will be carried out via AFTN channel (for urgent short message) and postal mail.

“Please make this information available to all Civil Aviation Organizations.”

Some Russian sources don’t attribute this event to a cyberattack. Instead, they are connecting it to an alleged change of leadership in the organization. The changes could also include a substantial restructuring in Rosaviatsia. But clearly, this is a very serious disruption for the agency. More seriously, other sources in the country allege that Rosaviatsia lost its entire database, consisting of 65 Terabytes of data.

This information includes aircraft registration data, many documents and e-mails going back one and a half years. According to the same sources, the Russian agency can’t use backups to recover from this cyberattack. This is because a lack of funds means that it doesn’t have backups of this data. Rosaviatsia reportedly uses a third-party contractor, responsible for maintaining their organization’s IT network.

 

Not surprising at all. Putin still refuses to accept even a partial defeat and his goal still remains replacing the government of Ukraine with a puppet government loyal to him and Russia.
Once again citing the Tom Friedman column published over three weeks ago, Putin will end up losing "late and big and deeply humiliated" rather than "early and small and a little humiliated".
Tragically, before the war ends hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians most civilians including women and children and the elderly and tens of thousands Russians most poorly trained conscripts will end up losing their lives.
Opinion | Putin Has No Good Way Out, and That Really Scares Me
The best hope is that Putin will be taken out by some of his senior advisors. Unlikely since Vlad is following the playbook of Stalin and the Kim family of North Korea with anyone even remotely suspected being disloyal to Putin ending up losing their lives or in a reeducation camp.

 

Lovely. So Ukraine now has to wait for another country to grow a set & step up.

 

I think having these in place now would be a deterrent for Russian withdrawal. I suspect that the time to enter this agreement is after Russia admits defeat and takes their troops home with their tails between their legs.

 

Someone in one of the replies mentioned that was the likely scenario- that this would be for after the war and the answer would be different. I hope so. Italy has stepped up I think, & it'd be great if they can get Poland & some other former Eastern block countries

 

cry me a freakin river vlad, your country is no better than germany was 80 years ago

 

I've been corresponding with a friend in Odessa. He says his city is fully expecting a Russian onslaught soon as the Russians re deploy for the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine.

 

Russia has shot down own aircraft in war blunders, says UK spy chief