War in Ukraine

Is anyone going to step up?

 

Go Poland

 

Regarding your final paragraph and the risk of Ukraine using jets to hit Russina territory. I fully agree it is difficult and likely very few rewards. But my mind goes to the Doolittle Raid of WW2, also unbelievably techinically difficult and limited real rewards from a military standpoint. But it was done for morale, the "statement" it made. I could see Ukraine wanting a comparable action.....and IMO that would probably not be in the best interest of most countries (perhaps including Ukraine themselves). There could be a small sense of protecting them from themselves.

 

Interesting thought

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.


What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

 

I read that and disagree with it. This whole idea that Putin is somehow playing the west for fools is annoying. Why do people seem to think Putin is some sort of mastermind? It makes no sense for Putin to show the world how inept his military is as some sort of larger plan. And suffer devastating economic damage as well. And unite NATO like we haven't seen in a long time. He screwed up big time.

 

Interesting take

"Slovenia prime minister voices support to send S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine

From CNN’s Adam Pourahmadi in Abu Dhabi

Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša said Wednesday that he supports sending the S-300 missile defense systems to Ukraine.

“Yes, I support this because this is the equipment that Ukraine needs the most," he told CNN's Becky Anderson, but added, “I don’t support speaking a lot about what we are giving them."

Janša also said he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who told him that his government is prepared to propose a referendum to Ukrainians to change the constitution to abandon Ukraine's wish to join NATO.

“I think they made some kind of pragmatic decision, because after they will win this war, I think that it will be NATO wanting them to join,” Janša said. “When they win this war, the Ukrainian army will be one of the strongest, if not the strongest army on the European continent.""
.....

That's an interesting end around. Ukraine declares it won't ask to join NATO but what if NATO asks Ukraine to join?

 

This might be the first time that the Polish have been viewed as leaders in Europe since King John III Sobieski defeated the Turks at the Battle of Vienna (1683)

 

Lets see if Germany has the stones to do it.

 

Vladimir Putin Pencil Sharpener / Holder / Political Sculpture | Etsy

 

Probably a war crime but not all that surprising. Consistent with Putin's strategy of massive shelling and bombing of civilian areas with the strategy of laying siege and inflicting as much pain as possible on civilians including destroying their homes, denying them heat, electricity and potable water and starving them. Bombing warehouses containing food and medical supplies is consistent with that strategy.

 

I don't think Putin is some type of mastermind, but saying his true aim may be the Eastern half and the Black Sea coast of Ukraine isn't some obscure conjecture, and it doesn't take a mastermind to think of it. Sure, his military is underperforming, Russia is suffering devastating economic damages, and NATO is more united than ever, but would all these be worth it if he could accomplish the aforementioned goals? Not to you or me, but would it be worth it to Putin?

It should be noted that Poland's contract with Gazprom expires this year anyway, and my understanding is that they have alternative suppliers lined up well ahead of the time since natural gas contracts are usually long term contracts. Poland and Bulgaria are the only major buyers of Russian gas in this situation, so it'd be easier for them to do this than say Germany.

 

I really, really, really hope that isn’t true. To hell with the Russians, but if some of them are getting acute radiation sickness it portends very bad things for the world.

 

Odds are Russia regroups and starts leveling city by city? Destroyed city yields a wasteland and no people or military power, he wins, even with later retreating back to Russia. Russia has created a larger buffer zone for new settlements pushed from the newly created states. Ymmv

 

Maybe, but I don't see it. Putin wants lots of things and a lot of the big things include incorporating much of Ukraine's GDP. Erasing that would be counter productive

 

Well, it is called an "exclusion zone" for a reason.

 

it isn't that hard. Putin surrounded himself with yes men who told him what he wanted to hear. Reminds me of a former potus who has a never ending admiration for Putin