War in Ukraine

I would say calling out the German asshats is reasonable. Portugal never was much of any thing beyond an en route fuel stop. The EU is slow leaking again. How many times do we have come to their aid? The EU has no leadership. Germany is as steaming pile of liberal Green Party waffling. They boxed themselves into hole energy wise.

 

They can be truthful to each individual family but hide the overall tally. Without the ability to organize and have independent investigations, there's no way to know for sure.

My assessment of the war remains the same as during the first few days. The Russians do not have the numbers to take Kiyv, and I don't think the Russian commanders are delusional enough to believe they can. I still believe that the forces surrounding Kiyv were intended to force the Donbass armies to retreat, but that obviously hasn't happened so Russia needs and probably is adjusting its strategy now.

I think the next step, based on what's rational as well as Russian actions the past few days, is for the Russians to get into defensive positions around Kyiv, to keep the pressure on the capital, interrupt supplies and communications. They'd be foolish to try to enter into urban combat with the forces they have available in a city of that size. This will likely last indefinitely, until the end of the war. The Ukrainians appear to be aware of this and is leaving their defensive positions to go on the attack in an attempt to jostle for better positions before this stalemate situation is set up. The key thing to watch here IMO is whether Russia can hold onto a position close enough to shell the center of Kyiv.

The Russian focus will then be in the east. They'll set up temporary defensive positions there while reorganizing, reinforcing, and resupplying their forces. Now that they have control of Mariupol, a land bridge to Crimea is complete, which is a prerequisite for this phase of the operation.

How they plan to achieve this is not clear at this point. The obvious way is to attack from the north and south along the Dnieper and force the Ukrainian army to retreat from the Donbass lest they get surrounded. The issue is that it's so obvious that Ukraine probably has prepared for it. What they could do instead is to wait until the summer, when the ground is no longer slush and they no longer have to rely entirely on roads for maneuvering. Then they can attack through the countryside to meet up between the north and the south.

I think the Russians will elect for the second option. It's more realistic, makes use of their advantage in armor and mobility, and citizens of the west may get fatigued by the 24/7 news on Ukraine and popular interest in the war may wane, particularly in the US since it really doesn't affect our everyday life besides higher gas prices which will come down a bit as the global market adjusts.

 

Russia says first phase of war is over as its advances in Ukraine appear to have stalled - CNN

"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas."
....
"The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of the blockaded Ukrainian cities," Rudskoy said. "These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR.""
.......
LOL....thanks, Baghdad Bob

 

Agree if not Putin supporters...otherwise lie in the bed you made. Cnn live

"Western scientists warn US policymakers against "shunning all Russian scientists"

From CNN's Danya Gainor

Five Western scientists have written a letter that calls on US policymakers and the rest of the scientific community to “avoid shunning all Russian scientists” in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

In their letter, published Thursday in the journal Science, the scientists said Putin and his associates deserve “every appropriately sized and targeted sanction against the Putin regime that the horrified world can devise.”

But, they said, it would be a major setback if the world punished Russian scientists for the actions of their government."

 

Continuing to do the wrong thing at Chernobyl...cnn live

"There's been no rotation of staff at Chernobyl nuclear plant since March 21, UN nuclear watchdog says

From CNN’s Pierre Meilhan

Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that there has not been any rotation of technical staff at the Chernobyl nuclear plant since March 21, the UN nuclear watchdog said Friday.

According to an IAEA statement, Ukraine also did not know when the next rotation might take place.

Ukraine’s regulatory authority told the IAEA on Thursday that Russian shelling of checkpoints in the nearby city of Slavutych, where many Chernobyl nuclear power plant staff live, “prevented them from travelling to and from the plant,” the statement read.

The current staff who arrived at the plant on March 20-21 replaced the personnel who had been there since Russian forces took control of the site on Feb. 24, the IAEA said."

 

Cnn live

"UN says it has "increasing information" corroborating existence of mass graves in Mariupol

From CNN’s Niamh Kennedy

The United Nations has received “increasing information” corroborating the existence of mass graves in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, and it has been able to get “satellite information” on one such grave, said Matilda Bogner, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.

“We estimate that one of those mass graves holds about 200 people,” she said at a press briefing on Friday.
She added one caveat: It is not guaranteed that all of the people buried in the graves “are civilian casualties, because when we document civilian casualties, we do not include both military casualties and we do not include people who die for other reasons apart from direct hostilities.”"

 

Ukranian AF hit by Russians

"Russian cruise missiles strike Ukrainian Air Force command center, according to Ukraine's military

From Yulia Kesaieva in Lviv

The Ukrainian military said in a statement Friday that Russian forces launched cruise-missile strikes on the Ukrainian Air Force command center in west-central Ukraine, causing "significant destruction" to infrastructure.

"Today, March 25, around 4:30 pm, Russian occupiers launched a missile strike on the territory of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Vinnytsia," according to the statement.

"A total of six cruise missiles were released by the Russians. Some of them were hit by air defense. The rest struck several structures, causing significant destruction to the infrastructure," it continued."

 

Cnn live

"Russia is moving troops into Ukraine from Georgia as reinforcements, senior US defense official says

From CNN's Jeremy Herb and Ellie Kaufma

The Russian military is moving troops stationed in the country of Georgia into Ukraine as reinforcements, according to a senior US defense official.

The US had seen “movement of some number of troops from Georgia,” the defense official told reporters, adding that the Pentagon could not provide a number for how many troops Moscow was moving or the timeline that they were on. "

 

No more rail service from Finland to Russia

"Finland will discontinue European Union's last direct train link with Russia on Monday due to sanctions

From CNN’s Abby Baggini and Arnaud Siad

Finland will cease to provide the European Union’s last direct train link with Russia on Monday due to sanctions, according to a statement from VR Group which operates the "Allegro" line between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.

In their statement posted on Friday, VR Group, which is Finland’s government-owned railway company, said: “VR will discontinue the Allegro train service until further notice, starting form March 28th, 2022.”
....

“Thus far we have been continuing the Allegro train services, according to the instructions by the relevant authorities and hence making sure that we can provide a safe passage to the Finnish citizens. During these weeks, the people, who have wanted to depart from Russia, have had adequate time to leave. Now, due to the sanctions we will discontinue the service for now,” Simola said.

"According to VR, Allegro is the only rail passenger connection between the European Union and Russia at present,” Taina Kuitunen, VR Group Communications Manager told CNN."

 

Europe can't live without Russian gas. Can this tiny Middle East country help? - CNN

"Qatar has invested $28 billion into expanding its giant North Field and expects gas capacity to rise by more than 60% in four years, he said. After that, around half of its capacity is expected to go to Europe. "Our plan is we want to be 50% east of Suez, 50%, west of Suez," he said, referring to the Egyptian waterway. Around 80% of Qatar's gas currently goes to Asian buyers, many of whom have signed long term contracts that don't allow a diversion of supplies to other buyers."

Possible alternate source for Europe

 

Australia also produces a lot of natural gas, shipping in the form of LNG will be more expensive, but that's another good alternative source.

In the immediate future though, there's a brewing crisis as Russia demands Rubles for payment of Russian gas. I don't know how this impasse can be resolved.

 

Good.

 

Good article already mentioned earlier....but good stuff at end.
Up to 60 percent of Russian missiles in Ukraine are failing, U.S. assesses (msn.com)

 

Ukrainian farmers need their own military unit with patches & everything

 

***edit -- don't know how accurate it is but the inclusion of the farmers is the joke

 

I cant with these guys

 

It’s a classic brain drain opportunity.