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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    True. They can deal with Russia later after they have secured the Strait.
     
  2. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    China has nk and now potentially Russia as client states.
     
  3. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Last edited: Mar 11, 2022
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  4. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Well China is mos def not your bud. Ever.

    No autocratic system will ever truly value another, even if they cooperate for a minute.

    And before someone schools me on how the the west is far from saintly, I already agree. But there is a difference.

    I am not so sure China even supports Russia RIGHT NOW beyond how it’s useful for them to try to weaken NATO. Russia is essentially a burden in every way except that they have a maniac that will threaten Armageddon and has the right weapons to be credible. In nearly every other regard Russia is a weak, unproductive teat elongator.

    And China doesn’t even need Russia’s nukes. Based on what we’ve seen so far they may not even be able to not accidentally hit Beijing instead of Oak Ridge.

    Perhaps Putin has a “burn it all” mentality because of the same calculus, but China is getting along just fine and a nuked world is certainly not in their interest in any way. There is no such thing as surgically removing the US from the stage. A devastating attack on the US, or Europe for that matter, means China is done too.

    This is part of my initial rant early on about “Let’s do this right now.” I simply do not believe nukes are a legitimate threat absent a truly insane Putin. While I can’t rule it out, I just don’t see it.

    I would not be surprised at all to find out that the cartoon table Putin puts even his browbeaten flunkies at the other end of is not to avoid COVID but to avoid getting the Novichok teas mixed up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2022
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  5. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Bennett is a big disappointment. Lapid can’t take over fast enough. Gutless and completely out of step with Israelis and Jews everywhere.
     
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  6. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    in this case they are essentially out of step with the entire western world. So there’s that.
     
  7. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    So, thought experiment, as I revisit my initial kneejerk “It’s on” hot take.

    Why does Putin not simply use a “small” nuke on Ukraine today, ala Hiroshima or Nagasaki?
     
  8. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    No idea, we are all hoping like hell this does not escalate into a WWIII extinction level event. Russia needs to gtfo Ukraine and then needs to answer for this before they can be regarded as a responsible member of the nations of the world.
     
  9. danmann65

    danmann65 All American

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    I just don'tsee how Russia emerges from this stronger than before the invasion.
     
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  10. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    In my opinion, there are a couple of reasons:

    1. It wouldn’t help him tactically.

    2. Despite whatever “false flag” Putin has in mind, the forensics of a nuclear weapon mean the origin of the fissionable material couldn’t be hidden in the long term; it would be obvious it was made in a Soviet reactor

    3. Despite Putin’s tough talk, he has no intention of pushing this to nuclear war, because it goes against his true desired end state, and using a nuke (perhaps even chemical weapons) could bring in NATO, which he can’t have because it means losing.
     
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  11. g8rjd

    g8rjd GC Hall of Fame

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    Some good old Russian propaganda that misses the cultural reference why it’s a giant self-own.

     
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  12. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Shoulda known someone would immediately bust my super clever plan.

    #3 is the most germane response.

    He has no intention of nuclear war. It serves no purpose, even for a demented ideologue. He will be no Modern Czar with that result.

    I am back to my initial take.

    If the atrocities we see with our own eyes are not a worthy fight, what is?

    Essentially Putin is saying that the western ideal is unacceptable and must not be allowed.

    I understand that he has this idea that the west must feel the same about the “eastern” concept.

    But does it? Look at all the sanctions. Shell, McDonald’s, Apple, Visa, etc. Did we even realize how all these companies were knee deep there?

    They were welcomed into the world. Now you may disagree that that order is itself worthy, and in philosophy class I’d admire the effort. I might even be That Guy. I rail against my corporate overlords here, and now. But I (we) have a certain amount of control over that in this system. It is what the “cancel culture” whining is all about. You can send a person or even a powerful company to a life of hell. As in, a job like 90% of us have.

    There is no analog in Russia. At least China makes my TV and Tik-Tok (that one can book a flight to Uranus—I’m a teacher.)

    It is clear that Russia, and what they represent as a state, has no desire to coexist. Putin himself has out-crooked every western crook that has ever existed. Our crooks at least provide you with a tangible good. I use Excel daily, as I type this on my iPhone, and Googled the companies fleeing.

    Other than participating in forcing me to pay for fire (gas), Russia doesn’t do a damn thing for me.

    I understand that there are millions of people at least as good as me in Russia. That sucks, as a matter of happenstance.

    I retract my “sensible” change of heart. Put it in motion today. The Shining City On A Hill is more than election PR.

    I'm not scared of dying. But I also don’t expect you to think like me. But mostly, I think Putin is just another humdrum tyrant who is being respected far too much for no good reason.

    There is literally no positive result by allowing him to continue. Afraid he’ll kill you? Then you’ll just cower forever. And there’s always another nutty bully waiting for you to just hope to perpetually wake up scared.

    This is no way to spend your tiny life.
     
  13. red4512

    red4512 GC Hall of Fame

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    Reminds me of Fox news.
     
  14. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    I’m a regular Hannity.
     
  15. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    If his goal is control of Ukraine, using nuclear weapons there is just counter productive. If he does use them it is a sign of desperation and defeat.
     
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  16. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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  17. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    While the goal was to reunite Mother Russia and Ukraine, at this point leaving Ukraine a crippled and neutered wasteland would probably be perceived by him as an acceptable outcome.
     
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  18. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    In terms of how I feel, I am kind of aligned with you. It seems like at some point you have to call his bluff and snuff him out. He is one guy who is single handedly turning the world upside down. At this point coexisting with him seems less and less likely by the day.

    That’s how I feel. But I am not sure I am to the point where I’d act on that feeling.
     
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  19. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

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    "Mr. Medvedev, I am returning to you the Russian medal 'For Merit in Space Exploration,' which you presented to me," Kelly tweeted on Wednesday (in Russian; translation provided by Google). "Please give it to a Russian mother whose son died in this unjust war. I will mail the medal to the Russian embassy in Washington. Good luck."



    Did NOT realize Scott Kelly spoke Russian fluently & has been tweeting against the Ukraine Invasion in Russian
     
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  20. gogator7444

    gogator7444 GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL....yeah right.

    "Russia ready to resume security talks with US, says state media

    From CNN's Lindsay Isaac

    Russia said Saturday it was ready to work again with the United States on security issues and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

    "If the Americans are ready for this, we will, of course, be able to resume dialogue and are determined to do so, as well as to work on the START, where there is also a certain pause,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Channel One, state media RIA Novosti reported.
    ....
    According to Ryabkov, Russia did not stop dialogue with the US. "We have not withdrawn from the US strategic stability dialogue. It has been suspended by Washington, apparently under the illusion that we need this dialogue more than Washington. Absolutely not," Ryabkov said.
    .....
    START limits the number of strategic offensive weapons both countries can have. The treaty limits each side to no more than 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy bombers; no more than 1,550 warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs and heavy bombers for nuclear armaments; and a total of 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers."