2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

You're on target with the latest probability.

 

I'm no statistician, nor do I play one on TV, but I don't think they calculated the "Make Tournament" figure of 16.9% correctly. The At Large bid is 15% and Automatic bid is 1.9%, to make the tournament, I would think it would be the larger number of the 2, not additive.

Either way, I/m guessing they think we have to beat A&M and Aubrin to get in. If other bubble teams fall flat, one win might get us it.

 

IF we beat TAMU & Auburn we would STILL need 3 or 4 teams ahead of us to fall flat. Surely at least one bid is going to get stolen as an auto in another conference which would bump yet another team in front of us down and out of the tournament. We must make the championship to have a reasonable shot without literally everything we need to happen in every single scenario going our way which never happens, considering there are so very many variables.

 

Holiday Inn Express explanation.

What if the At-large was 1%, not larger than the SEC Tourney probability? We still have that At-large opportunity, but failing that, we also have the opportunity to win the SEC Tourney for a bid, so 2.9% overall.

I wonder if you're thinking that the two worlds intersect. In that case we'd be double-counting the intersection & should subtract it out, more or less leaving the larger of the two probabilities. But the NCAA doesn't give one team two bids, both can't occur, so that's 0% & you're still left adding the two possible routes to the tournament.

 

If we had won the game in College Station we would be in regardless of the SEC tournament. We were that close and blew it. Blame the players or blame the coach. I don't care. We as a team blew it.

 

Fact: at this point in time, we are still contenders for the national championship.

 

Win the sec tourney and control our own destiny to make tourney. Mike White wins his first sec title / sec tourney title! I am going to go with this unlikely scenario as a spike guarantee!

 

Maybe we should just drop Georgia off our schedule.

 

Lurker - Hey I understand your angst but UF has won several close ones tantamount to miracles - OSU on Apples 28 footer and of course Vandy which I still can't believe we won. Sure we had a 5 point lead against TAMU under a minute I think, but statistically we won 2 out of 3 super close ones. Can't expect to win all of em like that.

Team has been on the precipice all year after the slow start.

All I know is I thought this team was rolled over dead without a heartbeat 4 - 5 weeks ago and yet, while the odds are hugely NOT in UF's favor, it ain't over.

First round loss definitely means it is. Our respected poster GH5 does not like our chances even with 2 SEC wins, looking at the metrics it's hard to argue with him either but, 21 (could) get us in.

Well we will know much more in a couple of days.

 

Hey, I like the enthusiasm, I'll be rooting for the Gators. Who knows, maybe UF gets hot from the three after shooting very poorly from range this year during the tourney. I mean, I'm one of those people that when UF ain't playing my interest level drops about 75%.

Gonna cheer for our boys (and girls).

 

If he does that, how many of you guys are on board with a 5-year extension?

 

I'm IN grant1!

 

Meanwhile Xavier should be 100% eliminated from making the tournament. Imo, its utterly ridiculous if they get in the tournament after losing to coming into today 12-18 Butler in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament.

With this loss, Xavier has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and 6 of their last 7. Have you heard of a team getting in the dance with that horrible of a last 10 games, except maybe if they had only a few losses on the season. 1 of those 2 wins is vs 6-24 Georgetown and it includes 2 double digit losses to St. Johns, as well as losses to 15-15 DePaul and now Butler.

The loss drops them to 18-13 overall and 8-12 in conference if you include tonight's loss to Butler. Great that they have 5 Quad 1 wins, but only 2 were vs ranked teams. If that horrible of a finish and that terrible of an in-conference record gets you in the tournament that the system is truly flawed and a total joke.

 

Another team should be out of the tournament and that's Wake Forest after losing to coming into today 12-19 Boston College. Have no idea how anyone thinks they deserve to be in the tournament.

They have 1 Quad 1 victory at Virginia Tech and have 0 wins vs the Top 25. They're best non conference win is vs Northwestern. Plus, they play in a very weak ACC this year. Why the ACC is getting so much love from bracketologists is beyond me. If big wins are so important than how in the world can a team with 0 ranked wins get into the tournament.

 

i agree with you …but just read Jerry Palms blurb on Xavier and he claims that the committed no longer takes into consideration how a team ends the season. News to me and seems dumb if that is true.

 

Thanks for letting me know. Not sure why how you finish doesn't matter. Still taking that away, still don't get it. 4 games under 500 in the Big East including the loss of the 1st round in the Big East Tournament. They lost 10 of their last 14 games, which I'm guessing doesn't matter either, but they're also just 18-13 overall. This means they have 4 wins since they beat DePaul at home on Jan 19th and 2 of the wins were Butler and Georgetown at home.

That's crazy to me to have 4 wins in close to the last 2 months of the season and get an at large bid. That's the same amount of wins in the same time period as Missouri and Ole Miss.

 

Meanwhile Texas Southern keeps winning-any chance they climb into quad 3 for us? HA

 

Vanderbilt killing UGA last night jumped them up to 71 in the NET. Which means last Tuesdays come from behind win is now a Quad 1 W.

 

Do they need to win 1 more game to stay top 75? Or will a loss this next round drop it back to a quad 2?