War in Ukraine

I don’t know that many people said that, but Gorbachev said it. In my opinion, the disaster was just a symptom of the overall disease affecting the Soviet Union, and it was going to fall whether or not that disaster happened, largely due to the economic and military pressure the U.S. was applying. The entire enterprise was unsustainable. They literally ran out of other people’s money.

 

Prepaying?

 

I’m not sure I follow the connection between the loss of electricity at Chernobyl and the risk of radiation escaping. The destroyed reactor is covered in a sarcophagus designed to last about 100 years and does not require power to work as far as I know. Is the issue the other undamaged reactors that were shut down about 20 years ago?

 

Although somewhat off-topic for this thread, one of the reasons that an attack by China on Taiwan is unlikely is that sanctions against China would bite much more than sanctions against Russia. While the sanctions against Russia are inflicting real pain on the Russians, sanctions against China by the West would literally destroy its export-based manufacturing economy.

 

There are still spent fuel rods on site on Chernobyl that require cooling. If they overheat radiation could be released. It happened at Fukushima.
Ukraine blames Russia for power cut at Chernobyl nuclear plant and says it could cause "nuclear discharge" - CBS News

 

The oil will go somewhere regardless if the US buys or not. I'm sure there are plenty of nations out there will willing accept Russian oil and increase imports.

As for Russia's GDP they could care less about the GDP of the states you mention. As for theoretical it will most certainly impact the western nations and if you think gas prices are going down anytime soon that's wishful thinking.

 

I hope you’re right. The operational and logistical challenges of a large amphibious assault with the navy that China has should also be a deterrent that Russia does not have to face in Ukraine. But they have been working on both problems for a long time, so so knows?

 

The oil may or may not “go somewhere else”. By definition, as prices have gone up the market thinks it might not so easily “go somewhere else”. That there is supply risk. If the market was confident global supply would remain unchanged, oil and gas prices would have remained unchanged post invasion. Drastically increased prices represents a change in the equilibrium, in this case a supply shock out of Russia. You get that’s how market economies work. No?

Your second paragraph is a bit of a mess, introducing strawman arguments I didn’t make. I didn’t say Putin would care. I was just stating a fact about the size of their GDP, their economy is a blip on the radar in terms of GDP, and thus their “sanctioning” our companies can only be seen as a joke. Russian assets are a tax write off to these huge corporations. A blip. Rather than “economic sanctions”, the bigger risk is state sanctioned actors committing criminal or cyber criminal activities against western corps. I also didn’t say gas prices would go down anytime soon. They likely won’t come down until the conflict de-escalates and Putin ceases his war against the Ukranian people. Which unfortunately probably doesn’t happen until Ukraine is destroyed. The question is what happens when this war “ends”. I think Putin has crossed the line to where the west can’t ever go back to “business as usual”, not with him or any of his cronies in power anyway.

 

IAEA says no issues at Chernobyl right now and the loss of power hasn't affected levels. However, I'd like to know how they know when "On Tuesday, the IAEA said it had lost contact with remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at Chernobyl." (Quoted part from CNN)

So are they trusting the Russians for numbers/status reports?

 

That is one of the more confusing moves by the Russians. Why Chernobyl? I know they used the exclusion zone to cross into Ukraine and yes the reactor is still dangerous but for the most part useless

 

Apparently, unless they actually have inspectors on site which doesn't seem likely.

 

To his credit, the head of that agency offered himself to go & supervise/help monitor everything as a 3rd party.

 

The Russian warship that bombed Snake Island in the Black Sea on the first day of the invasion of Ukraine has been destroyed, The Times of London reported on Tuesday.

The report, quoting Ukrainian military sources, said that the large patrol corvette Vasily Bykov was destroyed in a missile attack near the port city of Odesa early Monday.


Ukrainians sink Russian warship that attacked Snake Island – report

 

Hopefully the Captain enjoyed effing himself on the way down.

 

I think the skit was based on his real habit of jogging and stopping at McD’s.

example:
Bill Clinton Ends a Jog at McDonalds

WARNING: you cannot unsee the shorts he’s wearing!

 

From CNN live:

"Mariupol authorities accuse Russians of bombing maternity hospital

From CNN's Tim Lister in Kyiv and Olga Voitovych

The city council of the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol has posted video of a devastated maternity hospital in the city and accused Russian forces of dropping several bombs on it from the air.

"The destruction is enormous. The building of the medical facility where the children were treated recently is completely destroyed. Information on casualties is being clarified," the council said.
"A maternity hospital in the city center, a children’s ward and department of internal medicine ... all these were destroyed during the Russian air strike on Mariupol. Just now," said Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk regional administration."

 

From CNN live, it's too long to copy/link but retired military advocating for neighboring countries to provide more robust air defenses, which would stop short of a no-fly zone.

“The purpose of this letter is to urge, in the strongest possible sense, immediate action to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a viable mid- and high-altitude air defense capability. They need immediate reconstitution of their capability to defend themselves against air attacks from the Russian Air Force,” the retired military officials write. “We cannot stand idly by and wish them well as Russia prosecutes an unrestricted campaign of destruction on the Ukrainian government, its infrastructure, and its people.”

The thought being there's Soviet era stuff in neighboring countries that can be backfilled by allies. Makes sense.

 

Savage.

 

Infuriating.

 

Perhaps this is an attempt for the nato powers to do a little Sabre rattling?