Bama has the same overall and SEC record as us but sits at a projected 5 seed (Lunardi). I get their Q1 is strong, but at the end of the day, thats a huge difference between teams with the same overall and the same SEC records. I'm not really pleading our case as much as asking isnt a 5 way too high? They have been very inconsistent. I just find the NET to be a little misleading. Am I alone? Is this really the best way? What would you do differently?
I agree, they have a really bad loss on their resume too, although at Georgia is not quite as bad as home against TexSou, I think they should be an 8/9 seed. Their wins are pretty incredible though. They have possibly beaten the entire FF in Baylor, Gonzaga, Houston, and Kentucky.
Net is awful because it has hard cutoffs between the quadrants, and I think it counts MOV and MOL. Statistically it’s just a terrible measure, look no further than the women’s team to see how bad it is.
Alabama is only as good as their 3 point shooting from game to game. They don’t deserve a 5 seed in the dance. If that is what they end up with, look out for a 12/5 upset.
UF lost big Net points from losses with Texas Southern (-35), Maryland (-18) & Ole Miss (-10). We lost points from wins with USF (-1), Missouri (-6), UGA (-5) by not crushing them by more. If we're going to be a bubble team, we have to maximize our Net points. Bama's biggest Net reduction from losses was Memphis (-7) & TAMU (-4). They lost points in a win against Jacksonville State (-3) by barely winning. Given Nate Oats affinity for data, it's likely he made sure they did what it took to accumulate points.
Net has proven to be a failed system imo. Virginia Tech for example is 37 with 1 Quad 1 victory, which was a win at Miami (Net Ranking of 59). They have no wins against ranked teams and they're only 5-10 vs Quad 1 or 2. They're best non-conference win is vs Saint Bonaventure (Net of 84). They also lost to 11-20 NC St. and 11-19 Boston College. Imo, there is nothing good about their resume at all except they didn't lose to a Quad 4 team.
Alabama has the number one noncon SOS, number 1 overall SOS, they have played 15 quad 1 games, and 23 Q1/2 games, and only 1 quad four game all year. In the noncon they beat Houston and Gonzaga, we beat no one who ended up mattering. Our noncon SOS is 216 (78 overall) and we’ve played 8 quad 4 games and 6 more quad 3s. I am not criticizing MW for our schedule this year, it’s usually stout and we had some bad luck on who we played ending up sucking. But it doesn’t change the fact that Bama deserves what they have.
Karma has bitten you and it didn’t take long. I forgot about Mincy leaving last season but I didn’t forget games that happened this season in the SEC.
That would be a very scary 2nd matchup for a 1-seed. When clicking they can beat anyone in the country.
Bama's schedule is 1000 times better than ours. None of their OOC opponents have losing records. They also did a better job against the top half of the SEC than we did. They are pretty much being rewarded for a monster schedule. If they get things clicking, they can legit make a surprise run to the Final Four (like last year's UCLA).
NET is better than RPI. That is damning with faint praise. I like Pomeroy and using Pomeroy we are well out of the dance. But using Pomeroy it looks like the Big Ten and the ACC will be very overseeded. For some reason I think that these two conferences will be matched up early and that is a shame.
