2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

Not looking great. We'll have to beat TAMU & Auburn to be assured of a spot.

To manage a team that is perpetually on the bubble, we needed to be aggressive in accumulating net points. Other than winning, that which was in our control was winning "big". While the margin of victory was discarded as an explicit part of the equation in 2020, it's still a part of the Net Efficiency which determines Net Ranking. Jerry Palm describes it as: "net efficiency, the second most important factor, is as close as you can get to an uncapped margin of victory without explicitly using uncapped margin of victory."



These teams are likely in front of UF for consideration to get into the field of 68. ASU obviously won't get in because of their losing record, but they do have a Q1 5-8 record vs UF at 2-9.

 

Comparing resumes of Palm's last 4 in/out.

 

I'm surprised at how terrible our non con SOS turned out to be.

 

45% of our games were against Q3/4 teams. In regard to scheduling, Stricklin needs to figure out how to optimize it to increase Q1/Q2 games.

 

Michigan bearing Ohio state sucks for us

 

You can't control conference games. fsu is having an off year. Cal is from a power conference. Milwaukee has been much better. But we do seem to be a little heavy on the North Florida, Elon, Texas Southern type of games.

 

losing to Texas Southern, A&M, LSU, etc is what sucks for us. Shouldn’t be in the position if having to root for other teams to lose.

 

They were "Q1" when we beat them, but I'm not sure Net Rankings are firmly established so early in the season. To be honest I don't know if the committee looks at the games at the time played or the end of the season.

 

Just don’t see us getting in this year. Hope I’m wrong.

 

You're right, and we can't control any of the other arranged games: California, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Maryland & USF. That leaves 6 games with teams averaging 288 Net & 2 teams with a 70 net average.

 

None of this will matter when we race to the sec tourney title!

 

Bubble teams are killing it today. Gators may need to win 3 to get in.

Michigan
Memphis
SMU

All locked up a bid.

 

I'm glad people are coming to this realization. We finished 9th in our conference and lost at home by 15 to Texas Southern (along with several other bad losses). Two wins aren't going to cut it, we must make the Championshiop game

 

I hate that is probley true. NIT would be terrible

 

I still think that 2 wins and Florida probably gets in. A&M's Net is currently at 56 and a top 50 win on a neutral court is a Quad 1 win so this is a solid Quad 2 win making the Gators 5-2 vs Quad 2.

Then another Auburn win would be their 2nd vs a Top 4 team, (which very few other teams in the country can say) and their 3rd Quad 1 victory, making them 8-11 vs Quad 1 or 2 if you combine them. Even if they then lost a close game to Arkansas, Florida would still be guaranteed a winning record in the SEC.

Imo, due to the strength of the SEC, I really feel that the committee would want to take a 7th SEC team at that point.

I'm not convinced that some of the bubble teams would be considered better than Florida if they win 2 in the SEC.

Take a team like SMU. They're 2-2 vs Quad 1 and 3-3 vs Quad 2. Put them in the SEC and that record would be a lot worse. If you dig deeper, you'll see they lost to Oregon by 23 pts, lost to Missouri and have just as bad of a loss as Florida losing to 10-18 Loyala Marymount. They have 1 ranked win vs Houston. They do have 2 wins over Memphis and beat Dayton, but I think they definitely have work left to do.

Other teams such as Notre Dame, VCU, Davidson & Dayton have 2 Quad 1 wins while Wake Forest & Virginia Tech only have 1.

The SEC tie-break system may have done Florida a favor by giving them a chance for a quality Quad 2 win and another top 4 win vs the SEC regular season champion, who imo of the top 4 SEC teams may be their best opportunity to win.

However, realistically I'm not even sure they'll beat A&M and if they do can the Gators actually be consistent enough to beat Auburn. I have to think the % is very small that they'll win 2, but at least they still have that.

 

quick statistical check, if we are 60 percent to beat A&M and 30 percent to best Auburn (and both might be generous), then we are 18 percent to beat both. And if our odds at that point to get in are 2/3, then our odds to beat both and get in are 12 percent.
If we think it takes three and we are 30 percent to beat Arky or whomever we play in the semis, then the odds of winning all three are 5.4 percent. If our odds to get in at that point are 90 percent, we are under just under 5 percent all in.

so yeah, it’s not exactly likely. But hope always springs eternal.

 

Excellent and informative post. I think it's safe to say if the Gators don't win 2, they really have no shot. As you stated, that's about a 12% chance that we win both and get in. I guess better than nothing, but this team really hasn't given us much to believe that they can pull it off. Maybe they'll pull off the miraculous.

Still root for our boys and not trying to be a bad fan as i watch every game on TV, but I'm not really interested in watching them play in the NIT. I'll probably follow the scores and watch if they get to Madison Square Garden, but that's about it.