2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

Oregon's loss last night moved us ahead of them says Lunardi and keeps them behind us says Palm.

Today's Bubble Games:

BYU vs. Loyola Marymount (WCC Tourney 2nd Round): Surely a loss to LMU (205 NET) would keep BYU out of the field. Go Lions.

Loyola Chicago vs. Bradley (MVC Tourney Quarterfinals): For now I think we can root for Bradley, but if Loyola goes any further we probably have to root for them to win the tournament or else it'll be Loyola plus the MVC Tourney winner getting in. A loss here should keep them out. Go Braves.

Murray State vs. SE Missouri State (OVC Tourney Semifinals): Murray State not winning this tourney would be horrible. Go Racers.

 

this is the point I’ve been trying to make. Winning games you’re supposed to win doesn’t move you up unless the teams above you start losing. Losing games you should win moves you down, winning games you should lose moves you up. So if we beat Kentucky but lose to the 12th seed hypothetically in the SEC tournament, we are likely only marginally better off than we were before those two games, and that with conference upsets, other teams making runs etc.
Still a lot of work to do.

 

Based on the numbers I agree with you. It's really unfortunate that we could beat UK and Auburn in the same month, be 10-8 in arguably the best conference and still be left out if we don't win the first game we play in the conference tournament. This is where most posters say that Texas Southern game could be the season.

What's crazy to me is LSU potentially being 8-10 in the conference losing 4 of 5, or worse down the stretch and they are in safely on the 6 line.

 

I really think we're in if we beat Kentucky, no matter what happens in the SECT

 

I don't think we can afford a loss to someone like Vandy or UGA in round 1 and get a bid. Like someone said earlier the UK win would move us up, but that first round loss would move us back to where we are now.

 

Nah. Beat Kentucky and we're in. UK is a legit title contender.

 

Beat UK and Florida is in imo. Lunardi seems really off this year.

He has Notre Dame as a 10 seed. They are 2-6 vs Quad 1 with the wins being at Miami and the other UK , which means Lunardi is giving them a ton of credit for beating UK. They're also 3-2 vs Quad 2 and have out of conference losses to A&M, Indiana, Illinois and St. Mary's. They also lost to 11-18 Boston College. Perhaps he's giving them credit for going 14-5 in the 7th ranked conference in the country per RPI. Florida already has a better Net and if they beat UK, they're resume is way better.

Lunardi then has Xavier as one of his last four in. They're currently 7-11 in conference. They'll win their next game against a horrible Georgetown team, but since when does a team 3 games under 500 in conference get or even deserve an at large bid. Throw in the fact that they've lost 9 of their last 12, 7 of their last 8 and 5 in a row. 2 of those 5 are double digit losses vs St. John's. Oh but they have those 5 precious Quad 1 wins so all is forgiven.

He then has Miami as a 9 seed. What exactly is the love affair with a very mediocre ACC. 5 teams from that conference is a total joke. Miami lost to Bama by 32 pts, Dayton by 16 and lost to UCF. They're best out of conference win is 12-15 Penn St. They also lost to FSU twice and only have 1 win vs a ranked team which was Duke. Guess that win is also getting a lot of credit. Oh but they have 4 Quad 1 wins so that's all you need.

Memphis as 1 of the last 4 teams in. This one is not as bad, but not great either. They're 3-3 vs Quad 1, but only 3-4 vs Quad 2. They have losses against UGA, Miss, Tulane, UCF and E. Carolina. They did beat Bama and Houston and finish the season at home vs Houston. They should be in the same boat as Florida needing to win that game.

Indiana as the 1st team out is ridiculous. They're now 9-10 in the Big Ten most likely about to be 9-11 after they play at Purdue. They have 2 Quad 1 wins and they're 6-11 vs Quad 1 and 2.

I can keep going but have to go back to work. My point is the credit some teams are getting for big wins while Florida isn't. Another top 5 win would be better than any of these teams, plus playing in a much better conference.

 

As is Auburn. Beat UK and Auburn to close the season and the Gators have to be in. The bad thing is that this seems to be one of the better UK teams of late.

 

I hope that you are in my tournament bracket contest.

Wisconsin is extremely overrated.

The Big Ten should have three four seeds and nothing higher.

Iowa is the only underrated Big Ten team.

Rutgers beat a number of rated teams because they are overrated. They are 70 in Pomeroy ratings. They should not be in The Dance.

 

I don't know how highly rated WI is. I only suggested that they are strong. Perhaps kenpom is overrating them at 25? I think Purdue is underrated, based on what I've seen. If they hit shots, they're as good as anyone because they have studs down low. It might not be that the Big10 has championship contenders, but I think IL & Purdue can contend for the FF. Pur, IL, IA should make the Sweet 16, maybe one more.

 

Jerry Palm has us part of the last four in at this point.

 

lunardi is an idiot. if lsu losses today and we win, both are 20-11 and 9-9, yet we are number 6 out and lsu is a 6 seed?my mistake, a lsu loss makes them8-10 in the league, even stupider.

 

same with alabama, if lsu beats them and we win, same record scenario as lsu, but lunardi has them as a 5,

 

I think we need a win over UK and a win in the SECT, and that'd still have us first four probably.

Our resume, as it stands now, is not good.

 

Given that conference schedules are unbalanced this is a pretty weak comparison.

We're 9-8, yeah, but our second best win in-conference is against either Mississippi State or South Carolina.

 

I am banning you for being political. Never mind, I am not a moderator.

 

i did not say what fauci, there has to be more than one, right...........

 

Jerriey Palm has us last 4 in.

 

Need to win a game or two in the SEC tournament.

 

Not getting in this year. I’ve said that since the Texas Southern loss. This team has had moments that they looked deserving of a bid but have had too many moments that they looked like they didn’t deserve it. Yeah even great teams have bad games but that isn’t the case with Florida. They really just aren’t that good and that’s just the reality of it.