To simply peoples motivations or even their entire personality into being on a rational/irrational binary is really reductive, and I think, not very useful at all.
And would Biden's predecessor have been more reliable? I would add that although he executed it poorly Joe was implementing the decision of his predecessor to completely withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan and in fact Trump promised that they would be out of the country three months earlier than did Biden. As far as Ukraine is concerned it was Trump back in 2018 who said that he had no problem with the annexation of Crimea, in effect inviting Putin to annex more of Ukraine. After four years of Trump minimizing the importance of the alliance, Joe has managed to unify and strengthen NATO to a level not seen since the end of the Cold War with other NATO countries providing assistance to Ukraine and Germany increasing its defense spending as a share of GDP.
Oh he’s a giant a-hole, but I believe his thinking has value. He seems to be one of the few to be able to lay claim to predicting the 1987 financial crash, the dot com bubble crash, and the 2007 financial crash.
Perhaps he should stick to economics. I think its extremely dangerous to say things like "we have to assume he'll use nuclear weapons in any situation." It's about the same as saying we have to assume that there are bad actors in the economic system and conclude a devastating collapse is imminent. The bad actors part may be true, but imminent systemic collapse isnt a useful position for anyone (except radicals who think the world can be remade from ruble), especially reformers wanting to prevent a possible crisis (not to mention preventing the full scale panic of participants).
Oh I see, you’re talking about Taleb not Frank. I’m surprised you’re that dismissive of Taleb, as I would have predicted you to actually appreciate his systems analysis. Whether he’s right on this point about Putin, I have no idea. And like I said above, I agree with you. That said, he isn’t advocating for wasting the world. He’s trying to find a way around that.
I will say, time for communities/states to bring back fallout shelters, etc. Long forgotten because the Cold War was nearly over, I happened to look and couldn't find anything other than news stories of folks finding old ones on their properties, etc. No instructions where to go, no list of locations. We don't get a lot of emergencies up here so it's not like we know where shelters are to begin with *shrug*. Hopefully there will never be a need but best give folks information so they know what to do.
That's not up to us. That's up to the people of Ukraine and they've decided to fight for their country. Given that, I see no reason not to support them. It's in our interests to make it clear to Putin that invading European countries is a very costly choice.
I think you can respect a person's views in their field of expertise and dismiss their frankly batshit takes on subjects outside their expertise that arent much different from a layman's. This seems to be a problem common in smart people. I'm certainly guilty at times of popping off half-baked takes on things I dont have much knowledge about but feel entitled to make because I have plenty of education and know how to sound smart. This whole thread is a testament to that, everyone is a Russia/Ukraine expert now.
I think we have an interest in bringing both parties to the table to talk rather than to fight. The Ukrainians have every right to refuse a brokered peace as do the Russians. That doesnt mean attempts to broker a peace should not be made and we all sit back and watch two countries destroy themselves because we and the world say the die has been cast.
Many don't like to hear this, but this is about red lines. Ukraine is Russia's red line. The reason nobody's intervening is because everyone of consequence knows this, and they understand that Russia will be willing to sacrifice more for Ukraine than they ever will. NATO borders are our red line, and everyone knows it. If Russia challenges it then we'll be willing to sacrifice more than they ever will. Understanding red lines is what allowed the world to avoid nuclear Armageddon during the Cold War. The Russians understood our red line at Cuba, and that's how the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved.
Yeah I agree. Taleb would of course never say he’s an economist instead saying that he studies risk and probability (indeed he’s published papers on war), but he also thinks he’s an expert on basically every field imaginable. As I said, I would not offer the same counsel as him, but then again, I don’t have a ton of respect for my own geopolitical prognostication power, so I am open to being quite wrong here. Hopefully, you and I prove to be correct.
From the BBC: The Pentagon has set up a new hotline with Russia's ministry of defence to prevent "miscalculation, military incidents and escalation", a US official has told the news agency Reuters. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the US source said a "de-confliction line" was established on 1 March. The US military has created hotlines with Russia in the past, including during the war in Syria.
OneWeb: Russian space agency refuses to launch internet satellites, points at UK sanctions - CNN Russians wanted OneWeb to sever ties with the UK government or they wouldn't launch. OneWeb has refused their ultimatum
Russia's oil is tainted in the eyes of the market. And that's spiking prices - CNN "But the market is taking no chances when it comes to Russian oil. Traders, shippers, insurance companies and banks don't want to touch the stuff, for fear of running afoul of Western sanctions."
I am not suggesting appeasement. Far from it. In fact. I think the crushing sanctions will push Putin to war anyway. It seems to me, though, that we have no compact to come to Ukraine’s defense, where we do with NATO countries. Our crushing economic sanctions may just be enough to push the Oligarchs into a change of guard the Russian way - with w bullet to the back of the head, BEFORE NUKES ARE DEPLOYED.
RT America ceases productions and lays off most of its staff | CNN Business Oh noes! where will some people on this forum get their news from now?!
