War in Ukraine

That is so tough to read, makes me feel guilty as hell...............someone needs to start a Bronze statue of President Zelensky.

 

Rock meet hard place. We have to weigh out the pros and cons. Yes, our conventional forces could make short work of that invading army. That does us no good if the planet is reduced to a radioactive wasteland.

 

*sigh*

"US continues to share intelligence with Ukraine, official says, as lawmakers allege delays

From CNN's Jeremy Herb and Barbara Starr

A senior US defense official said Thursday that the US is sharing intelligence with Ukraine amid concerns raised by lawmakers that some intelligence has been delayed reaching Ukrainians on the ground.

Both GOP Sens. Ben Sasse and Marco Rubio — the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee — have expressed concerns that intelligence is not moving fast enough, with Sasse saying "we have lawyers delaying the process at way, way too many steps and we shouldn’t let technicalities get in the way of helping them fight back."

 

If NATO/the US continues to let Putin take whatever he wants, we're headed there anyway because he'll eventually get to NATO soil. He'll make excuse after excuse.

A no fly zone under the UN would involve other countries and would at least help.

Getting them airplanes is vital. I know things aren't the same but there has to be something close to a MIG those pilots can fly now that it looks like Poland and them are dragging their feet. It's not like they don't have the US right there with their planes to protect them.

 

Cnn live. How smart is this? Congrats, Chernobyl part 2 possibly?

"Russian shelling intensifies around town near Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant

From CNN's Tim Lister in Kyiv, Paul Murphy, Katie Polglase and Olya Voitovych
...
Two days ago, Russian forces said they controlled the territory around the town of Enerhodar, but on Wednesday a large crowd of workers from the power plant and civilians blocked access to the town, building makeshift barricades of trucks and tires. At one point, Russian forces fired close to the crowd, according to geolocated social media videos, injuring at least one man.

The situation deteriorated further Thursday. Thick black smoke rose from the barricades as sirens went off in the town, according to videos CNN has geolocated and authenticated.
...
"This is peacekeeping operation from Russia," a man said in the video. "This is what it looks like." "

 

We know who the oligarchs are. Simply reach out to them and say if you want your money and do not want us to hunt you down, end this now.

We can't drop Putin but we sure can drop a few Russian oligarchs.

Send in Denzel....

 

If it were that easy we'd probably have done it a long time ago. The issue here is that the oligarchs have no leverage over us, meaning nothing we promise them can be held accountable. They have no way of knowing if we'd keep our promises. For all they know we could try them as war criminals after they eliminate Putin. Better to stick with the devil you know, and the devil they know is Putin.

 

You want people to rally around Putin, NATO/UN going to war with them by doing a No Fly Zone will only help. Ditto on overtly attempting regime change. Do people really think trying to brazenly assassinate/remove leaders or NATO killing Russians is going to win the Russian people over in the way you want?

 

I'm not sure how much influence the oligarchs actually have on Putin. I don't think he really cares if their assets are frozen or if their mega yachts and real estate are seized. Not that I disagree with our policy of doing so it's just that I'm not sure that it will have any real impact. I'm not very optimistic at this point. While I think that Russia and Putin will lose in the long run it may not happen for years and will most likely not happen before tens of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians lose their lives. If his history is any indication it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Kyiv and Kharkiv could end up like Grozny and Aleppo.

 

Yes. People need to think of ways to deescalate not escalate, even if it means giving Putin outs or letting him think he "won" something.

 

Didn't Kirk win that simulation by changing the conditions of the test? (Reprogramming it out of a no-win, because he didn't believe in no-win scenarios) --sorry I'm more a Star Wars girl.

Anyway back to this...there needs to be very little leeway here because that's what Putin is headed for anyway. He'll spread to non-NATO (btw Georgia is now asking for EU admission) places with the continued threat of nukes if someone interferes. Then when he decides to go after NATO countries it'll be "let me in or I'll nuke", and then we're still at THIS same spot. Only with more dead having piled up.

Basically the world may be against him financially, but militarily it's lip service. So I really hope someone takes him out because even if he stops after taking Ukraine he likely won't.

 

You make great points. But, factually, the threat of world annihilation is not just tea talk, when nukes are involved. Use of Nukes makes the entire discussion moot.

 

After the events of the last year with Afghanistan and Ukraine, I don’t think too many countries are lining up to let Joe look out for them.

 

I checked Nassim Taleb’s twitter to see how the “black swan” thinker is viewing the situation. To my surprise, he seems to be advocating getting involved because he believes major war is almost certain, so early intervention can limit the damage. Coming from one of the worlds foremost thinkers into catastrophe, this is most unnerving.

 

This will suck for many people but I have suggested ceding those two eastern most provinces to Russia, this obviously was met by derision by my "hawkier" friends and I was accused of being Neville Chamberlain but it sure beats living in a radioactive atmosphere eating your neighbors children for dinner.

 

Understood.

One question. How far does the world let Putin go then? Warsaw Pact? Central & Western Europe? Alaska? Canada? The US? Because if "surrender or we'll nuke the world" will continue to work, why not?

And nevermind that China is watching & taking notes. There's no NATO in the Pacific.

Edit - you answered above & I didn't see it, but the general idea plus China stand.

 

Even if nuclear war isnt realistic, if it prevents Kyiv and other cities from being turned into ruins, its not a bad thing. For all the talk of Chamberlain and Munich, the agreement was incredibly popular when it was made. And I'm not sure starting a war in 1938 instead would have benefited anyone or contained Hitler either. The Allied armies were in even worse shape then lol.

 

I am of the same thinking. I don’t mind at all letting him think he won something. Though I do mind letting him actually win something, such as rule over all of Ukraine. Even that is obviously preferable to nuclear war though, so it seems like the choice of a rational actor.

That said, the economist Robert Frank has a neat idea about the evolution of seemingly irrational emotions being of long term value because it makes others think twice about small aggressions. Eg Stealing $100 from a perfectly rational actor would be perfect crime since it will always cost that person more than $100 to litigate the matter and therefore they never would. But if there’s a chance the person has “irrational” emotions, stealing anything becomes a risk.

This is clearly how most us view Putin. If we knew he wouldn’t fight back, we’d probably oust him from Ukraine immediately. By the same token, if he viewed the rest of the world the same way, he probably wouldn’t have entered Ukraine in the first place.