2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

Certainly no expert but my guess -
Beat KY we are in (despite Agator88 above posted 20.3%) even with a first round SEC loss.
Lose to KY, need 2 "W's" in the SEC to get in.

JMO

 

that’s why I’ve been saying we need two more. Murphree disagrees, which is fine - but as a point of reference (and not that it’s the end all), after the win last night, we went from fourth team out to fifth team out in the bracket matrix. Imagine what a loss would have done. Michigan all but locked up their bid last night by beating MSU so that’s one less bubble spot as well.
So simply holding serve isn’t enough, we need some quality wins and not to lose games we shouldn’t. Which means either beating kentucky and not laying a first game egg in the SEC tournament, or winning two in the sec tournament with one of them likely having to be Arky or UT. Then hoping for quiet/chalk tournaments around the country, and Ohio state getting it together again, since that’s our second biggest win. Then Vandy finding a way to stay top 75, that would help too.


Indiana and Rutgers essentially play a play in game this weekend, Then UNC plays Duke, Miami plays Syracuse, among other games we need to watch.

 

If we beat UK, we're in. If not, we have to win 2 in the SECT to be comfortable. Win one and it'll be a nail biter. Lose our first and it will be a miracle.

 

Is this for something like a top six conference? Does it take into account OOC strength of schedule? Valvano used to load up with cupcakes OOC to get a lot of wins.

A 20 win season with a decent to strong OOC schedule in the SEC this year is WAY better than a 20 win season with a decent to strong OOC schedule in the ACC this year.

According to the objective Pomeroy metrics the SEC is the #2 conference and the ACC is #6. The only AP Top 25 team in the league is Duke.

 

I hope I’m wrong but I still disagree.
Right now by most accounts we are about the 6th team out. A good win maybe moves you a seed line, but let’s say in this case it moves us 2 full seed lines.
Then we are the 3rd to last team
In. And if we lose first round of SEC’s it’s going to be a bad loss likely - that will drop is, or absolute best car we hold steady. Then there are all the teams that have great conference tournaments, one bid leagues that have upsets etc. we will be right back on the bad side of the bubble.
We need two wins with one of them being a quality win IMO. And even then it’s not guaranteed, but good shot hopefully.

 

Vandy dropping out of the top 75 was a double whammy as it moved the home win to a Quad 3 and the road win to Quad 2. Really would be helpful if they win vs Miss Saturday. Hopefully trying to get to 500 will be enough motivation.

I know some sites may say differently, but I think a win vs UK and Florida is in. A winning record in the SEC, especially given the fact its the #1 or 2 top ranked conference, 8-3 in their last 11 games including 2 wins vs the Top 7 teams in the country, should be more than enough imo. Top 10 wins have to hold more weight. I really think in this scenario the committee would want to make sure that a 7th SEC team is in the tournament. Jmo.

Also, i believe at worst this would make Florida the 7th seed in the SECt, but more likely the 6 seed. LSU would only have to lose 1 of their last 2 (at Arkansas vs Bama) to finish the season and Florida has tie-breakers over SC and Miss St. Finishing 6th in the SEC also imo would look good to the committee in such a tough conference.

Should Florida get the 6 seed in the SECt, they'll play either the winner of Vandy-UGA or A&M-UGA. Should A&M win 1 of their last 2 (at Bama, vs Miss St.) or Vandy loses to Miss, than Florida will play the winner of Vandy-UGA. If A&M loses both and Vandy wins, which could certainly happen, than Florida would play the winner of A&M-UGA.

Should Florida lose to UK, I think they still have a good chance of getting the 7 seed. The following would need to happen.

1) Miss St. loses 1 of their last 2 (vs Auburn, at A&M) - really need Miss St. to not win both if Florida loses to UK on Sat, as they could pass Florida as the 7th team out of the SEC.

2) SC loses Sat at Auburn

3) A&M loses 1 of their last 2 (at Bama, vs Miss St.).

If these 3 things happen, Florida could still get the 6 seed if LSU loses twice (at Arkansas, vs Bama).

Either way in the qtr finals of the SECt should Florida lose to UK and win their 1st SECt game, they'll have to play 1 of the big 4, which means they'll need 1 more big win to confidently secure a bid. Would be nice to just win vs UK and make the SECt a little more comfortable since they'll most likely need 1 more big win vs a highly ranked team.

 

Lunardi moved us down a spot too after last night, and it’s fairly indicative of other views.
Really can’t see us getting in with one more win, even if it’s kentucky. We would have to pass 7 teams with the win, and then not lose any spots with the bad loss in SECs or bubble teams making runs and jumping us,.

 

No this was projecting what UF needed to get into the tourney this season. It wasn't a guideline for all teams or conferences just what remains for UF.

 

I'm not sure how VT is not safely in at this point? They seem like a hot team that will end up 12-6 in the ACC and 20 overall wins.

Why is LSU a 6 seed? Even if they end up 8-10 in the conference it still looks like they're in safely.

 

I think that Florida should get in if it beats Kentucky, although a play-in game 12-seed is nothing to be happy about.

 

Va Tech is 1-5 vs Quad 1 with the only win being at Miami. They have 0 wins vs the Top 25 and their best out of conference win was against Saint Bonaventure.

I can't figure out Lunardi's bubble teams at all. Some of the teams have a lot of Quad 1 wins, completely overlooking the bad losses, out of conference SOS & record and conference rankings. Then you have a team like Va Tech who has really no big wins but no bad losses either. One constant is Lunardi seems to not consider out of conference SOS and records at all. I thought this was important to the committee but maybe not this year. So hard to figure out. Wish there was more clear criteria.

 

I just don’t get Michigan being in. Don’t they have 16 wins?

 

Well, say what I disagree with. I think we only need one more if we beat UK. I don't think that's a controversial statement.

 

Lunardi is definitely off base in some areas.

 

Feel the same way about Rutgers.

 

Agree with you 100%. Big Ten is getting way more credibility then they deserve this year

 

OOC SOS became a huge emphasis 10 years ago and I think it has tapered a bit, but I just don’t see any way that VT gets in with that resume. I agree with you, Lunardi’s choices are odd this year.

 

And I said we need 2 likely, that’s where we differ. Wasn’t calling you out, just acknowledging a difference of opinion.

hopefully we win a few more and it’s a moot point.

 

Bama getting run out of their gym by TAMU.

 

St. John’s wallops Xavier. Good result.